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Post by Chris Higgins on Apr 5, 2018 11:02:48 GMT -6
This is what I just posted to facebook to begin the backpedal process....
Looking ahead to the interesting weather for Friday evening and this weekend. There are two features we are watching that will impact the sensible weather Friday night...and our chance for snow. One is an unusually strong, cold and dry Canadian high pressure system. The other is a wave in the jet stream that is getting ready to come onshore along the west coast. For several days it looked like the jet stream wave would get here just as the cold/dry air was arriving...a situation that was favorable for a stripe of potentially significant snow. But the latest data this morning is suggesting the cold/dry air is even more powerful than first thought...and may squash the energy...effectively drying up much of its moisture. This could leave us with a lot of cold but not much (if any) snow for Friday night. I'm still analyzing the new data...and I have not made any decisions just yet...but I have a feeling my forecast this afternoon will include less snow for Friday night...and more wind, cold and dry. Either way... it will not be a very spring-like Saturday
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Apr 5, 2018 11:07:11 GMT -6
Good writeup chris. As for sunday, seems like we shld give that another couple days and just mention light rain possibly mixing with light snow or flurries.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Apr 5, 2018 11:15:42 GMT -6
Good writeup chris. As for sunday, seems like we shld give that another couple days and just mention light rain possibly mixing with light snow or flurries. I totally ignored it in my update lol... The thing about Monday is that I could see it being a pretty prolific WAA event for areas from the eastern Ozarks northeast...Much different set-up with a strong system pushing into the northern plains on the backside of an anomalously intense April HP. But... I could also see it veering off into Iowa and northwest IL...missing us entirely. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Apr 5, 2018 11:23:17 GMT -6
On a different note...RadarScope is now available for Windows 10!
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Apr 5, 2018 11:29:06 GMT -6
Agree that a veer off into Iowa is possible and thats where im putting my money. Spring like pattern trying to get established by this time, imo.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Apr 5, 2018 11:31:31 GMT -6
Departing HP has not been productive for us in terms of snow all winter so thats why.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Apr 5, 2018 11:33:25 GMT -6
On a different note...RadarScope is now available for Windows 10! Best news all day! A tad pricey though |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 5, 2018 11:37:24 GMT -6
I've never had much hope for Sunday/Monday...it's hard enough to get a decent snowfall in the middle of winter with a retreating HP let alone in April. I could see a burst of snow/sleet falling on the front end, changing to rain. But I could definitely see where it misses us to the N/NW too as Chris alluded to.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 5, 2018 11:45:37 GMT -6
Back to Friday's system...you have to wonder how much convective feedback is affecting the systems modeled track. Models are blowing up spurious vorts well to the S atop the deep convection output. Just something to consider before completely writing it off. You would think ensemble forecasts would help smooth that out but maybe not...either way there has definitely been a major shift in the track and structure of this storm. It just goes to show how models can't be trusted when the players aren't on the field yet...real world data starts pouring in and they go into chaos and catch up mode.
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Post by bdgwx on Apr 5, 2018 12:01:27 GMT -6
The 12Z Euro is complete wiff. Not even close.
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Post by bdgwx on Apr 5, 2018 12:05:12 GMT -6
If it's any consolation the NWS must be frustrated to. The metro had 80% odds of snow in the point forecast. And they were advertising 2-3" for the metro and 3-4" along US-50.
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Post by RyanD on Apr 5, 2018 12:15:36 GMT -6
If it's any consolation the NWS must be frustrated to. The metro had 80% odds of snow in the point forecast. And they were advertising 2-3" for the metro and 3-4" along US-50. Yeah, I feel sorry for all the mets. This is painful to watch. I'm glad I didn't say much to anyone about this potential system though my wife was just asking me (prior to looking at the forum today) when it would start Friday. Going to let her know now that there's no concerns anymore. She has to drive in to work at 6am Saturday. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Apr 5, 2018 12:27:46 GMT -6
Part of the struggle and frustration is that there is a certain point you have to say something and put a first round of numbers of some kind out. My personal opinion is that by the time you are at 48 hours out from an event... you need to be sticking your neck out and putting some kind of numbers out there. Whether its and over/under, or more specific is up to you. I prefer the over/under approach at 48 hours... (2" or more...less than 2"). What that number is depends on the magnitude of the storm and certainty of occurrence. In a major storm event... I might highlight areas that more/less than 5" (or 4" or 3") Then once you get to the 24/36 hour range... you need to fine tune those ranges. That is how I typically operate...of course there are always exceptions. I was THIS close to not posting anything last night and just waiting until this morning...but I felt that I really needed to get something on the record. Now I wish I had waited  |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Apr 5, 2018 12:29:21 GMT -6
Looking at Sunday now... I think the best course of action is to continue wording of Light snow changing to rain...or light mix to rain.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Apr 5, 2018 12:32:11 GMT -6
The Windows X version of RadarScope will be enormously helpful for me doing Facebook live streams from home during late night severe weather when not in the studio! Very excited about this!
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Apr 5, 2018 13:44:14 GMT -6
Man I sure hope these models correct themselves this yr. Oh wait!!!
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Apr 5, 2018 13:56:05 GMT -6
Man I sure hope these models correct themselves this yr. Oh wait!!! Lets just hope they dont start doing this with severe weather outbreaks. Is anyone else unable to purchase RadarScope on the Microsoft store? Everytime I try I get an error message and saying to try again later |
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Post by Snowman99 on Apr 5, 2018 15:28:07 GMT -6
Haha my forecast went from a 90% chance of snow Friday night with three inches of accumulation to a 40% chance of rain and snow mix yay.
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Post by bdgwx on Apr 5, 2018 15:36:42 GMT -6
Man I sure hope these models correct themselves this yr. Oh wait!!! Lets just hope they dont start doing this with severe weather outbreaks. Is anyone else unable to purchase RadarScope on the Microsoft store? Everytime I try I get an error message and saying to try again later I'm getting an error message too. I hope that gets fixed quickly because I'm really looking forward to using it for this weekend's big snowstorm. Oh wait... |
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Post by Snowman99 on Apr 5, 2018 15:44:20 GMT -6
We have had about 3 feet of virtual snow 3 days out from the "event", and about 4 inches of actual snow. Sad
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Apr 5, 2018 15:53:21 GMT -6
We have had about 3 feet of virtual snow 3 days out from the "event", and about 4 inches of actual snow. Sad I am at 2.8 inches for the winter and about 5 for the last 2 years.... absolutely disgusting |
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Post by mchafin on Apr 5, 2018 15:53:23 GMT -6
This made me laugh:
Major changes with respect to the forecast for Friday afternoon and
Friday night. The cold front is more progressive deeper into the mid-
south as models appear to be catching up on the strength of this
cold/dry arctic airmass. This type of scenario unfortunately has
happened at least a few other times much earlier this winter (Dec-
Feb), and appears that this may be another "ghost storm" where
potentially significant snowfall events modeled 72-96 hours out by
and large dissapear ~2 days before a potential event.
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Post by mchafin on Apr 5, 2018 15:55:05 GMT -6
maybe we'll get surprised by a not-so-progressive cold front? wouldn't that be somethin'?
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Apr 5, 2018 16:39:31 GMT -6
Man I sure hope these models correct themselves this yr. Oh wait!!! Lets just hope they dont start doing this with severe weather outbreaks. Is anyone else unable to purchase RadarScope on the Microsoft store? Everytime I try I get an error message and saying to try again later Yes, I will go insane if this keeps up during our severe weather season!! |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Apr 5, 2018 17:36:59 GMT -6
maybe we'll get surprised by a not-so-progressive cold front? wouldn't that be somethin'? Probably in July during a triple digit heat wave. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Apr 5, 2018 17:41:32 GMT -6
Not sure of it's rhe model's performance. I think it's just the snow, models dont have a clue yet that it can't snow here. Remember all the rain the last couple of months? MOdels predicted all of that pretty well. They need to take the snow equation out of all models for the zip codes in and near st louis.
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Post by Spaz(Wrestlerdude) on Apr 5, 2018 17:56:54 GMT -6
The Windows X version of RadarScope will be enormously helpful for me doing Facebook live streams from home during late night severe weather when not in the studio! Very excited about this! because we will never be using it for snow unless we all move south? |
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Post by bdgwx on Apr 5, 2018 18:14:05 GMT -6
Exactly. Model skill is really good with floods and heat waves around here it seems. You can usually lock those in several days in advance. But snow? We'd all be buried and dead if all this digital snow actually happened here.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Apr 5, 2018 18:18:59 GMT -6
Exactly. Model skill is really good with floods and heat waves around here it seems. You can usually lock those in several days in advance. But snow? We'd all be buried and dead if all this digital snow actually happened here. I should of done my senior project on model forecasting skill with snow around here compared to other weather events. I feel like models do well with heavy rain, heat, severe weather(mostly) here. But winter weather makes them short circuit and swing wildly within 2 days |
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Post by bdgwx on Apr 5, 2018 18:29:41 GMT -6
Exactly. Model skill is really good with floods and heat waves around here it seems. You can usually lock those in several days in advance. But snow? We'd all be buried and dead if all this digital snow actually happened here. I should of done my senior project on model forecasting skill with snow around here compared to other weather events. I feel like models do well with heavy rain, heat, severe weather(mostly) here. But winter weather makes them short circuit and swing wildly within 2 days I'd like to see a stat something like this. Pick a lead time, just one model cycle, maybe 120 hours and compare the 24-hour snowfall from that one run with the observation 120 hours later. Repeat this procedure for every day of winter. Then plot on a map the model bias for the whole country. I bet you anything Missouri would have a high model bias and the East coast would have a low model bias. |
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