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Post by cozpregon on Apr 5, 2018 18:38:25 GMT -6
Just underestimates the depth of the cold air. Maybe start by fixing that
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Post by bdgwx on Apr 5, 2018 18:38:32 GMT -6
More ranting as follows. While model skill does continue to improve for the objective metrics like 500mb heights or 850mb wind vectors. That doesn't mean squat if sensible weather skill at the surface isn't also improving. And besides these skill scores are usually for the whole northern hemisphere. I'd like to see them broken down by region. For example, the NH score on 500mb heights over the last 30 days is 0.912 for the GFS @ 120HR. That's phenomenal; no doubt. But, fat lot of good that does us if we keep getting ghost storms that disappear within 72 hours for our specific region. Also, we've heard it time and time again. The FIM is going to be the next best thing. 4DVAR assimilation is going to be the cure for all of our woes. Increasing resolution is going to make forecasts so much better. This supercomputer upgrade is going to make us #1 again. While I do recognize that these improvements are necessary, it just seems like these things provide incremental improvements at best. There's almost never a big huge leap forward. So I'm not going to be shocked if the FV3 version of GFS that gets deployed later this year is going to be much of the same. Oh, and one final thing. This is a clear demonstration that ensembles just aren't dispersive enough. Several of those GEFS runs had zero duds. Sorry for the rant. I do feel better now  |
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Post by guyfromhecker on Apr 5, 2018 18:55:19 GMT -6
The Russians are probably hacking the models
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Post by Chris Higgins on Apr 5, 2018 19:02:25 GMT -6
The Russians are probably hacking the models It has been done before. |
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Post by cozpregon on Apr 5, 2018 20:01:08 GMT -6
Paducah has a winter storm watch up for 1-2” of wet snow
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Post by STGOutdoors on Apr 5, 2018 20:21:59 GMT -6
Here in Perryville I may be under the weakest winter storm watch ever issued in the history of modern meteorology. Lol.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Apr 5, 2018 20:35:53 GMT -6
Look at the NAM now and the 00z run last night. Thats just sad
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Post by jmg378s on Apr 5, 2018 20:40:08 GMT -6
Even worse if you consider that the grid point forecast for most (all?) of the watch area is "...less than one inch...".
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Apr 5, 2018 20:48:23 GMT -6
Looks like RadarScope is finally purchasable in the Microsoft Store
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Apr 5, 2018 20:50:13 GMT -6
Went from heavy snow to sunglasses weather for Friday/Saturday. NICE...  |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Apr 5, 2018 21:13:58 GMT -6
Sunday's system is a dud as well, back in Iowa as previously mentioned. Looks like after this cold blast we can final close the books for good on this painful Winter.
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Post by jmg378s on Apr 5, 2018 21:16:53 GMT -6
So I'm trying out RadarScope on Windows. My biggest issue, right now, is that I don't see a way to show the 2-panel simultaneous display...ya know like velocity & CC? Also, no MZZU radar?
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Post by Chris Higgins on Apr 5, 2018 21:24:18 GMT -6
So I'm trying out RadarScope on Windows. My biggest issue, right now, is that I don't see a way to show the 2-panel simultaneous display...ya know like velocity & CC? Also, no MZZU radar? That is only available with subscription...tier 2...which I have...but that is not currently supported on desktop. I exchanged a few messages with them about it today. They plan to include it in the future. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Apr 5, 2018 21:24:31 GMT -6
So I'm trying out RadarScope on Windows. My biggest issue, right now, is that I don't see a way to show the 2-panel simultaneous display...ya know like velocity & CC? Also, no MZZU radar? Ya i dont think there's a way to view two products at once. Also no RadarScope Pro integration yet. Not bad for version 1.0.0 but still missing a few key things |
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Post by bdgwx on Apr 5, 2018 21:29:02 GMT -6
Here in Perryville I may be under the weakest winter storm watch ever issued in the history of modern meteorology. Lol. I still think you have a decent chance at getting some measurable snow. But a WSW type of event? Not so much. Even a WWA seem like a low probability call at this point. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Apr 5, 2018 21:32:53 GMT -6
Sunday's system is a dud as well, back in Iowa as previously mentioned. Looks like after this cold blast we can final close the books for good on this painful Winter. Based on one run of the nam? Okay... |
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Post by cozpregon on Apr 5, 2018 21:35:16 GMT -6
Here in Perryville I may be under the weakest winter storm watch ever issued in the history of modern meteorology. Lol. Well... you got that goin for you now |
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Post by cozpregon on Apr 5, 2018 21:36:24 GMT -6
So- anything going on?
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 5, 2018 22:00:23 GMT -6
Just waiting on spring... |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Apr 5, 2018 22:11:05 GMT -6
Me too. Im ready for thunderstorm weather.
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Post by Snowman99 on Apr 5, 2018 22:41:15 GMT -6
I'm ready for alcohol.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Apr 6, 2018 1:32:52 GMT -6
Paducah has a winter storm watch up for 1-2” of wet snow Someone posted an accumulation map from one of the northern Kentucky TV stations on Facebook. Showed a broad band of 8-14“ across that area. That's an awful lot of wet, heavy, cement snow. |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Apr 6, 2018 1:37:01 GMT -6
Just waiting on spring... Fingers crossed it sounds like it might try to show its head again by the end of next week. |
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Post by guyfromhecker on Apr 6, 2018 3:42:21 GMT -6
Think we got screwed? They pulled all the watches down S And SE of here without even an advisory
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Apr 6, 2018 6:01:20 GMT -6
Pretty nice 6z runs from the meso-scale models.
Nam looked a lot better for the southern counties.
Still could get a 1-3 band for a decent chunk on this board if 12z continues the trend.
Interesting.
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Post by guyfromhecker on Apr 6, 2018 6:08:01 GMT -6
Latest RAP is dry as a bone for the whole CWA
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Post by Snowman99 on Apr 6, 2018 6:51:08 GMT -6
Its not going to snow
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Apr 6, 2018 7:09:20 GMT -6
I have 5.5 inches on the year when you say that lol. Most won't see meaningful snow, but there are members who live in the far southern counties. They are looking better than the run or two where there basically was no storm. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Apr 6, 2018 7:19:13 GMT -6
Latest RAP is dry as a bone for the whole CWA The newest RAP is way north, and hits the southern counties nicely. It's coming back. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 6, 2018 7:53:58 GMT -6
It's easy to see why this system is getting squashed...this is an all out blue 'norther! Widespread sub-zero readings crossing the border this morning with strong pressure rises across the Plains.
Southern counties still have a chance but it will be tough to keep precipitation going with that kind of cold/dry air undercutting it. Guess we'll see...
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