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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jun 9, 2018 12:49:12 GMT -6
HRRR thinks it will provide a focus for initiation northwest of STL this afternoon. You can definitely see the outflow boundary racing off to the northwest on the radar. You can see the outflow from this morning storms and another boundary up around Quincy getting ready to interact. Looks like a good initiation point
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jun 9, 2018 12:57:07 GMT -6
I said it a while back and I'll say it again. It's amazing how awful our short term models have become in addition to the long term. What's the deal with that?
Looks like storms are blowing up north of stl and could really form a nasty squall line that moves south through the area later this afternoon. Not sure how much juice is left in the atmosphere though.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jun 9, 2018 12:58:25 GMT -6
Impressed by the coverage today btw. Started at an off time mid morning too. All it took was a little spark to get things going. Several days of heat and humidity to capitalize on.
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Post by ajd446 on Jun 9, 2018 13:00:29 GMT -6
I could see the outflow moving back into the area. Appears to be stalling
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jun 9, 2018 13:05:56 GMT -6
I knew that disturbance on IA/MO line last night had to be watched.. but storms faded with it after midnight and there really wasnt much to it until just after sunrise, then it took off.
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Jun 9, 2018 13:05:56 GMT -6
Got about 5 minutes of sprinkles so far today
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Post by toddatfarmington on Jun 9, 2018 13:07:15 GMT -6
1.4" 3 mi east KFAM this morning
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jun 9, 2018 13:07:32 GMT -6
Have to say I am not suprised at all by what has happened today. But I would never have forecast it like quite like this. The potential was always there...it just needed the trigger...which was nebulous at best.
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Post by cozpregon on Jun 9, 2018 13:08:36 GMT -6
Have to say I am not suprised at all by what has happened today. But I would never have forecast it like quite like this. The potential was always there...it just needed the trigger...which was nebulous at best. Me neither. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jun 9, 2018 13:10:49 GMT -6
Never a dull moment trying to forecast convective trends...
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jun 9, 2018 14:15:43 GMT -6
Like trying to forecast waves in a bath tub
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Post by Snowman99 on Jun 9, 2018 15:13:14 GMT -6
Had thunder and 5 drops here.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jun 9, 2018 16:04:52 GMT -6
So is another round gonna develop or not? Keeps teasing it.
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Post by ElKay23 - Columbia, IL on Jun 9, 2018 16:07:52 GMT -6
Got 1.75” in the manual gauge this morning. Looks like there was some lightning strike damage in town: www.facebook.com/122829151099703/photos/a.335480543167895.73038.122829151099703/1672434022805867/?type=3(11:40 a.m.) Lightning strikes have caused damage throughout Columbia. During this thunderstorm lightning has struck a home on S. Rapp, and utility poles on Riebeling, Cherry Street and West Bottom Ave. There is smoke in the home on S. Rapp (attic fire), the utility pole is on fire on Riebeling, and electric wires are lying over cars on Cherry Street. Columbia firefighters are being assisted by crews from Millstadt, Waterloo and Dupo. Folks are asked to avoid these areas at this time. - photo - W. Bottom Ave. home damaged by lightning strike that also knocked down an electric line. Photo by Leonard Defabio IV.  |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jun 9, 2018 16:22:09 GMT -6
So is another round gonna develop or not? Keeps teasing it. Im going to lean towards no but something still might try to get going. These high CAPE and weak shear environments with no real trigger are almost impossible to model |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jun 9, 2018 17:35:00 GMT -6
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jun 9, 2018 18:00:09 GMT -6
They have a floater on that MCS to with a new image every minute. Amazing to see the gravity waves ripple through the top of the storm |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jun 9, 2018 18:59:19 GMT -6
They have a floater on that MCS to with a new image every minute. Amazing to see the gravity waves ripple through the top of the storm It really is something to look at...the resolution of the imagery from GOES-16 is incredible. |
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Post by cozpregon on Jun 9, 2018 22:54:33 GMT -6
  Would think it should turn more south along the CAPE |
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Post by bdgwx on Jun 10, 2018 7:10:13 GMT -6
The Euro and GFS both look like they could be rainy in the extended range for early next week. They both show two tropical disturbances that merge together in the heart of the CONUS. One is in the Pacific (Bud) and the other in the GOM (as yet unnamed). The GFS shows maturity of both whereas the Euro leaves the GOM disturbance as an on open wave. My guess is that the GFS is a little too aggressive on cyclogenesis in the GOM and note that FV3 leaves it as an open wave as well. Either way there are some hints that we could get tropical moisture flung our way from different directions.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jun 10, 2018 8:19:34 GMT -6
The Euro and GFS both look like they could be rainy in the extended range for early next week. They both show two tropical disturbances that merge together in the heart of the CONUS. One is in the Pacific (Bud) and the other in the GOM (as yet unnamed). The GFS shows maturity of both whereas the Euro leaves the GOM disturbance as an on open wave. My guess is that the GFS is a little too aggressive on cyclogenesis in the GOM and note that FV3 leaves it as an open wave as well. Either way there are some hints that we could get tropical moisture flung our way from different directions. That would be awesome. Anything to keep the 2012-like dry heat torch at bay. |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jun 10, 2018 8:52:19 GMT -6
The Euro and GFS both look like they could be rainy in the extended range for early next week. They both show two tropical disturbances that merge together in the heart of the CONUS. One is in the Pacific (Bud) and the other in the GOM (as yet unnamed). The GFS shows maturity of both whereas the Euro leaves the GOM disturbance as an on open wave. My guess is that the GFS is a little too aggressive on cyclogenesis in the GOM and note that FV3 leaves it as an open wave as well. Either way there are some hints that we could get tropical moisture flung our way from different directions. That would be awesome. Anything to keep the 2012-like dry heat torch at bay. And the accompanying drought |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jun 10, 2018 9:36:32 GMT -6
Anything gonna pop today?
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jun 10, 2018 11:08:09 GMT -6
Anything gonna pop today? Something should get going over central Illinois. It could try to bubble this way towards the better instability |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jun 10, 2018 11:12:15 GMT -6
Actually I just noticed that disturbance over Iowa. Id keep an eye on that for sure
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jun 10, 2018 11:32:43 GMT -6
Nothing eye popping but there's a few showers firing, then drying up, along what appears to be an outflow from the far northern Missouri storms. Outflow is in the Hannibal/Quincy area
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Jeke
Junior Forecaster
Old Jamestown, MO
Posts: 320 
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Post by Jeke on Jun 10, 2018 12:24:34 GMT -6
It appears the SPC has moved to marginal rick area for today SW to include the metro.
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Post by RyanD on Jun 10, 2018 12:33:07 GMT -6
Tornado warning near Bloomingtom!. As much as I don't want a drought I also don't want so much rain that I have to keep pumping water off my pool. I'm also tired of mowing. Lol I'll take the rain as long as it stays warm enough to keep my pool water comfortable.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jun 10, 2018 12:47:16 GMT -6
It appears the SPC has moved to marginal rick area for today SW to include the metro. Unfortunately, the entirety of the metro area hasn't been so fortunate. It's probably been three weeks since I've had a decent rain that lasted more than 5 or 10 minutes. Yeah the ground hasn't developed huge cracks. But it's not soaking wet either. As I said a few weeks ago when it comes to rain this year it's feast or famine. |
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Jeke
Junior Forecaster
Old Jamestown, MO
Posts: 320
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Post by Jeke on Jun 10, 2018 12:58:51 GMT -6
It appears the SPC has moved to marginal rick area for today SW to include the metro. Unfortunately, the entirety of the metro area hasn't been so fortunate. It's probably been three weeks since I've had a decent rain that lasted more than 5 or 10 minutes. Yeah the ground hasn't developed huge cracks. But it's not soaking wet either. As I said a few weeks ago when it comes to rain this year it's feast or famine. We were awfully dry until yesterday afternoon when we lucked out and got a quick .7" of an inch. Could use more... |
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