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Post by guyfromhecker on Jun 27, 2018 7:58:35 GMT -6
I don't want to sound like a panicker but I want to pass this along. I believe I am suffering from food poisoning from a whole watermelon that we bought at a Walmart in Waterloo. I'm only 2 days into it. We bought the watermelon last Friday. My wife chopped it into quarters. She put most of it into fruit salads that we had each day. Nobody consumed a lot of watermelon at one sitting. I came home from work Monday night and wanted a big chunk of watermelon because it's a nice way to get moisture. I didn't even get through the whole slice and something just didn't seem right. I am probably consumed at least four to five times more than anybody else had at one sitting. By 11 I had a fever. Woke up had diarrhea. Yesterday evening another fever. Diarrhea still there. Classic salmonella symptoms.
The only other time I've had true food poisoning I had the same feeling when I was eating the stuff that did me in. Weird
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Post by perryville on Jun 27, 2018 8:31:31 GMT -6
I follow the weather pretty darn close and this question keeps popping into my mind. Was there any certain reason that Paducah was late in issuing the tornado warning for my area? It was literally seconds between warning and tornado. Just a freak show of force by mother-nature? Usually Paducah is lights-out (no pun intended) when it comes to severe weather.
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Post by guyfromhecker on Jun 27, 2018 8:49:39 GMT -6
I follow the weather pretty darn close and this question keeps popping into my mind. Was there any certain reason that Paducah was late in issuing the tornado warning for my area? It was literally seconds between warning and tornado. Just a freak show of force by mother-nature? Usually Paducah is lights-out (no pun intended) when it comes to severe weather. I don't even know why Paducah would handle you. I would imagine their local Doppler becomes less defective out that far. Of course these type of spinups are not always easy to see. I think Chris has a real good handle on them |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jun 27, 2018 9:52:40 GMT -6
QLCS tornadoes are tough buggers to warn on. I started seeing signs that the line heading for Perryville might have potential...and posted such on facebook...quite a ways ahead of the TOR warning. The advantage of social media...I can raise level of concern...but not issue a warning (i obviously have no authority to issue a warning). I like to see SVR warn with TOR POSSIBLE tag issued at first sign of possible trouble...and step up toward the TOR warning when it looks clear.
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Post by jmg378s on Jun 27, 2018 10:04:03 GMT -6
I follow the weather pretty darn close and this question keeps popping into my mind. Was there any certain reason that Paducah was late in issuing the tornado warning for my area? It was literally seconds between warning and tornado. Just a freak show of force by mother-nature? Usually Paducah is lights-out (no pun intended) when it comes to severe weather. Keep in mind that QLCS-type tornado events can be notoriously difficult to anticipate. Can you clarify where "my area" is and what time you were impacted? If I recall from looking at the data last night the first warning went out at 3:35pm (I need to double check that) but the suspected tornado wouldn't have been impacting the Perryville town proper until about 3:50. I can't remember if Perryville was covered by that warning and if there was a second warning. I'm just gonna have to go back and look. There seems to be some confusion (and least for me) about timing. One picture posted last night was stated to be taken at 3:28 from DQ (presumably the one near I-55 & Hwy 32) looking south but the phone timestamp clearly shows 3:53. While another photo posted (no longer accessible) appeared to be taken near Crump Auto Sales with a phone timestamp of 4:20 something I think, but that time must be incorrect. |
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Post by bdgwx on Jun 27, 2018 10:05:36 GMT -6
As has already been pointed out there is an interesting setup for tonight. There is a 1000-850mb convergence zone that sets up generally along a line from St. Joseph to St. Louis and lifts northeast as we head into the morning hours. The environment on the high theta-e side of the boundary has widespread MUCAPEs above 5000 j/kg. Surface parcels should be capped up tight so any storms that form over night will be elevated, but given the extreme instability you have to assume some could be severe. The NAM initiates storms after 3am. The GFS initiates storms around midnight. NAM is generally more aggressive with coverage than the GFS.
We should probably watch tomorrow afternoon as well. It doesn't look like there is a clear trigger for activity like there is tonight, but given the extreme instability the atmosphere may become auto convective from solar insolation alone even while being under the influence of an intensifying ridge of high pressure. The Euro and GFS are both showing convective activity in the area tomorrow afternoon. Of course, as is often the case what happens overnight may dictate what happens tomorrow afternoon. I think tomorrow afternoon is more of a wild card given the lack of a more well defined trigger for activity.
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Post by jmg378s on Jun 27, 2018 10:12:39 GMT -6
I follow the weather pretty darn close and this question keeps popping into my mind. Was there any certain reason that Paducah was late in issuing the tornado warning for my area? It was literally seconds between warning and tornado. Just a freak show of force by mother-nature? Usually Paducah is lights-out (no pun intended) when it comes to severe weather. I don't even know why Paducah would handle you. I would imagine their local Doppler becomes less defective out that far. Of course these type of spinups are not always easy to see. I think Chris has a real good handle on them KPAH is actually a smidge closer than KLSX for Perryville. |
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Post by dragons7stegen on Jun 27, 2018 10:17:52 GMT -6
I follow the weather pretty darn close and this question keeps popping into my mind. Was there any certain reason that Paducah was late in issuing the tornado warning for my area? It was literally seconds between warning and tornado. Just a freak show of force by mother-nature? Usually Paducah is lights-out (no pun intended) when it comes to severe weather. Keep in mind that QLCS-type tornado events can be notoriously difficult to anticipate. Can you clarify where "my area" is and what time you were impacted? If I recall from looking at the data last night the first warning went out at 3:35pm (I need to double check that) but the suspected tornado wouldn't have been impacting the Perryville town proper until about 3:50. I can't remember if Perryville was covered by that warning and if there was a second warning. I'm just gonna have to go back and look. There seems to be some confusion (and least for me) about timing. One picture posted last night was stated to be taken at 3:28 from DQ (presumably the one near I-55 & Hwy 32) looking south but the phone timestamp clearly shows 3:53. While another photo posted (no longer accessible) appeared to be taken near Crump Auto Sales with a phone timestamp of 4:20 something I think, but that time must be incorrect. I can clear that up. Oringinal picture from my position was taken at 3:28. The timestamp at later time is after the warning was issued and I screen shot my photo for Perryville. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jun 27, 2018 10:37:25 GMT -6
Hi res NAM is pretty aggressive with storm coverage tonight
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Post by guyfromhecker on Jun 27, 2018 11:00:50 GMT -6
Any more thought on the possibility of a derecho tomorrow?
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Post by guyfromhecker on Jun 27, 2018 11:06:08 GMT -6
I don't even know why Paducah would handle you. I would imagine their local Doppler becomes less defective out that far. Of course these type of spinups are not always easy to see. I think Chris has a real good handle on them KPAH is actually a smidge closer than KLSX for Perryville. It may be. But I would imagine their radar has to deal with elevation between the two areas. Lower circulations might be hard to spot. That and you got to consider that most of their weather is coming out of KSLX. I actually think we should increase the density of Doppler radars. That or perhaps add another dimension to it. Do a lower-level Doppler and a greatly elevated Doppler that kind of looks down a little for more distant things. I'm not really sure if that's feasible or sensible. Just something I thought of. 124 miles out on a half degree sweep is about a mile in the air. There's a lot going on below that |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jun 27, 2018 11:47:08 GMT -6
KTVI reported on the 11 AM news that the tornado warning sirens did not go off in Rolla yesterday afternoon. This in spite of the emergency managers "pushing the button." They were tested an worked June 8. Could have been disastrous had there bee na large tornado rolling through town.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jun 27, 2018 11:59:00 GMT -6
Any more thought on the possibility of a derecho tomorrow? I think that mention of derecho potential by the NWS for tomorrow was a bit overcooked...especially being ~72hrs out. There is negligible forcing tomorrow and shear is anemic. Given the extreme instability if a cluster of storms gets going and develops a cold pool there could be wind potential but it's not a real supportive looking setup for widespread convection...mid-level temps get pretty toasty by tomorrow, especially across MO. |
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Post by perryville on Jun 27, 2018 12:05:02 GMT -6
I live about 7 miles southwest of Perryville. I agree with Chris in the fact that the wording could be upgraded on the severe thunderstorm warning, if they feel a spin-up could occur. I read the warning and it said strong winds and large hail. This caught my attention, but the escalation from a severe thunderstorm to tornado warning occurred very quickly. Ste. Gen and I had been keeping an eye on the storm and thought it was going to split us. I guess it goes to show mother-nature can throw curve balls just when you think a fastball is coming. We are definitely in no-mans land when it comes to weather. I personally think our weather is similar to Fredericktown and Farmington, and thus should be handled by the St. Louis NWS. Not sure what it comes down to, but I will give Paducah a free-pass on this one. They have done a superb job at handling severe weather in the past.
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Post by guyfromhecker on Jun 27, 2018 12:39:57 GMT -6
Am I correct in saying that a Doppler at 124 miles is actually sweeping at 5000 feet or so if it is set at 1/2 degree. I'm just doing the basic trig on that. Actually, it's closer to 5700 feet.
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Post by ajd446 on Jun 27, 2018 13:43:17 GMT -6
I think we may see some severe flooding tonight in the metro it is tropical out
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Post by bdgwx on Jun 27, 2018 14:22:24 GMT -6
Am I correct in saying that a Doppler at 124 miles is actually sweeping at 5000 feet or so if it is set at 1/2 degree. I'm just doing the basic trig on that. Actually, it's closer to 5700 feet. I believe the average height of the 0.5 beam at that distance is 15,000 ft. The beam depth is about 10 kft at that distance so it actually spans 10-20 kft. One unfortunate thing that makes the trigonometry difficult is that in the typical case the Earth is curving away from the beam so that must be taken into account. The Earth will curve away from the beam at an exponential rate. An approximation of this rate (and it's only an approximation) is 8 inches multiplied by the distance in miles squared. In reality you have to consider the refractivity of the beam as well. I've ignored it for now. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jun 27, 2018 14:39:23 GMT -6
Radar Scope has a great tool that tells you the approximate beam height. Use the distance tool...and start at the radar site...and drag out. According to RS... the beam height of the 0.5 beam near Perryville is approximately 6800 feet.
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ilnois
Wishcaster
Columbia, IL
Posts: 123
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Post by ilnois on Jun 27, 2018 14:41:22 GMT -6
Radar Scope has a great tool that tells you the approximate beam height. Use the distance tool...and start at the radar site...and drag out. According to RS... the beam height of the 0.5 beam near Perryville is approximately 6800 feet. What are you thinking for overnight tonight? |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jun 27, 2018 14:51:11 GMT -6
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jun 27, 2018 14:52:43 GMT -6
Radar Scope has a great tool that tells you the approximate beam height. Use the distance tool...and start at the radar site...and drag out. According to RS... the beam height of the 0.5 beam near Perryville is approximately 6800 feet. What are you thinking for overnight tonight? Still on vacation... so honestly haven't looked very closely. But from a distance... pretty good chance of a complex or two of storms after midnight into the mid-morning hours...with flash flooding, hail and some downburst winds possible....a focus in a northwest/southeast band somewhere between the MO River and the MO River. |
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Post by cozpregon on Jun 27, 2018 15:28:12 GMT -6
Any more thought on the possibility of a derecho tomorrow? I think that mention of derecho potential by the NWS for tomorrow was a bit overcooked...especially being ~72hrs out. There is negligible forcing tomorrow and shear is anemic. Given the extreme instability if a cluster of storms gets going and develops a cold pool there could be wind potential but it's not a real supportive looking setup for widespread convection...mid-level temps get pretty toasty by tomorrow, especially across MO. I agree BRTN...we do have a few things in favor of it- extreme CAPE and PWs out the ying yang... but you would like a moderate to strong unidirectional flow thru the column to propagate the derecho and just not seeing this. This doesn't discount severe winds though if we get some development. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jun 27, 2018 15:35:11 GMT -6
NAM is just a little unstable tomorrow. Like others have said the environment isn't exactly primed for severe weather, but that much CAPE can produce some strong storms. Normally i would say the NAM is way to high with surface dew points at 80 but with all the recent rain it might be pretty close  |
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Post by Tilawn on Jun 27, 2018 16:57:41 GMT -6
I must say that this afternoon has been one of the worst afternoons this season as far as humidity
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Post by yypc on Jun 27, 2018 18:52:33 GMT -6
I must say that this afternoon has been one of the worst afternoons this season as far as humidity Yup, 74 dewpoint seems to be a season high. I still remember last summer when I had to play softball when the dewpoint was 82. Brutal. |
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Post by bdgwx on Jun 27, 2018 19:00:22 GMT -6
I'm not sure what to think about next week. GEFS and EPS definitely have substantial ridging developing. But, I'm not convinced we'll see triple digits just yet. Of course anytime you see a 597 DM ridge it does have a tendency to pique to your interest. Anyway, one interesting aspect of this ridge is that it builds and moves from the east to the west.  |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jun 27, 2018 19:26:52 GMT -6
Tough thunderstorm forecast tonight...not that I'm getting a closer look.
The instability gradient (and amount of available energy) are such that you would have to be concerned about repeat thunderstorm episodes near or northeast of the Missouri River...from northwest Missouri down into the STL area. The big "IF" is how much (if any) convection will get going. There is little if anything showing up in the water vapor imagery upstream that raises big alarm bells as a possible shortwave/trigger/upper level support. There is not currently any type of MCV...or anything coming over the ridge. So that leads to a real conundrum in terms of an upper level trigger. So working down the column... there is the westerly LLJ impinging on a respectable low level thermal/dew point/theta-e gradient that stretches through roughly the same NW/SE zone...near/north of the Missouri River...with little CIN in the mixed layer...which is quite unstable...indicating elevated convective potential if something can get going.
The last few vis images show the CU looking a little more agitated over Missouri to the northwest of STL... but that may be a function of the setting sun as much as anything else.
I'd say there is a conditional threat of severe storms, hail and flash flooding along and just northeast of the Missouri River into STL late tonight and early tomorrow morning. That threat will only be realized if storms can develop enough cold pool coalescence to generate a more well defined low level focus... otherwise... it may be more crickets tonight than lightning/thunder. Have to go with something in the neighborhood of a 40% chance for storms with heavy rain, some hail and wind after midnight...more likely after 3am.
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Jun 27, 2018 19:43:50 GMT -6
Thank you Chris for taking time out of your vacation to let us know what you're thinking. It is appreciated.
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Post by Tilawn on Jun 27, 2018 19:54:49 GMT -6
I must say that this afternoon has been one of the worst afternoons this season as far as humidity Yup, 74 dewpoint seems to be a season high. I still remember last summer when I had to play softball when the dewpoint was 82. Brutal. I had a 78* DP this afternoon |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jun 28, 2018 0:34:36 GMT -6
Storm developing between Jeff City and Vichy. RS vector shows it moving towards the city but it looks to be dropping SW towards I-44 in the motion. Not sure if that's our Thursday thunderstorm activity or not.
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