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Post by unclesam6 on Jun 2, 2018 13:57:25 GMT -6
Such a big year weather-wise in 2006, too. July 19/21 come to mind... along with the mega icestorm from November 30/Dec 1.
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Post by jmg378s on Jun 2, 2018 14:03:38 GMT -6
I think 3/12/06 was also the day of the longest track supercell on record.
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Post by amstilost on Jun 2, 2018 15:29:23 GMT -6
I guess this is being nitpicky but severe thunderstorm warning is a county or a county and a half north of the severe thunderstorm watch. ??
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Jun 2, 2018 15:29:35 GMT -6
The last time the entire metro area was in a ____ risk for severe weather at the 1630Z issuance was: slight - 11/05/2017
enhanced - 06/17/2017
moderate - 05/27/2017
high - 03/12/2006Ya 2006! Man those were the days! |
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Post by unclesam6 on Jun 2, 2018 15:38:51 GMT -6
I guess this is being nitpicky but severe thunderstorm warning is a county or a county and a half north of the severe thunderstorm watch. ?? It just goes to show how painfully tricky it is trying to forecast around the haves/have nots from this morning's MCS. |
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Post by REB on Jun 2, 2018 15:55:53 GMT -6
Got poured on in fairview heiights. .07” at home. UGH
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Post by mosue56 on Jun 2, 2018 16:02:02 GMT -6
The cold front hasn’t gone through yet! Still sticky and warm out!
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Post by amstilost on Jun 2, 2018 16:16:41 GMT -6
I guess this is being nitpicky but severe thunderstorm warning is a county or a county and a half north of the severe thunderstorm watch. ?? It just goes to show how painfully tricky it is trying to forecast around the haves/have nots from this morning's MCS. One thing I didn't take into account was the public safety aspect of a forecast like this. I know it is very difficult trying to protect/make people aware of "possible conditions" vs. my insane obsession and general knowledge of what is going on around myself and family weather-wise. Like I said in previous post, I don't mean to sound nit-picky. I have nothing but respect, admiration for meteorologists in general. |
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Post by yypc on Jun 2, 2018 16:41:18 GMT -6
Did May end up as the hottest ever?
Edit just found my answer: “The National Weather Service reports it was the warmest May on record, with an average temperature of 75.4 degrees.
The previous record was for 73.2 degrees in 2012.”
Ugh, already beating 2012, actually destroyed by 2 degrees. That’s damn hot.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jun 2, 2018 17:07:55 GMT -6
Few storms developing just northwest of the city right now. Doesn't look like anything severe. But after the little spit of rain we got this morning I'll take what I can get!
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Post by unclesam6 on Jun 2, 2018 17:25:19 GMT -6
Amazing to see the difference that MCS made.
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Post by ajd446 on Jun 2, 2018 18:01:15 GMT -6
After a warm week this week it looks extremely hot from the 11th onward
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Post by mosue56 on Jun 2, 2018 20:11:55 GMT -6
Finally got some good rain for a few min in Festus!
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Post by unclesam6 on Jun 2, 2018 21:20:57 GMT -6
someone's gotta make this baseball game stop.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jun 2, 2018 21:30:15 GMT -6
Looks like a good ridge runner setup as we get late in the upcoming week
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Post by cozpregon on Jun 3, 2018 0:13:41 GMT -6
Looking like we are seeing where the intense heat will be setting up the thru early summer. Just the models showing temps like this for early June is concerning.  If it does set up there... we would have several ridge runner setups. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Jun 3, 2018 8:29:50 GMT -6
Wow, finally a pleasant, low humidity morning. Been a month. Literally. Feel's great, especially with the breeze.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jun 3, 2018 8:31:54 GMT -6
And yeah,it looks like the plains will scorch this summer. Their drought is going to get much much worse. At times that ridge should expand into our area as well, giving us heat waves.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jun 3, 2018 8:38:13 GMT -6
And yeah,it looks like the plains will scorch this summer. Their drought is going to get much much worse. At times that ridge should expand into our area as well, giving us heat waves. Let's just hope the NW flow can give us breaks from time to time. We've got a full 3 months ahead of us of keeping that monster air mass at bay. Also can't help but wonder if that means another dry fall and winter for us. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Jun 3, 2018 14:45:46 GMT -6
Almost a no no by Wacha Wacha today
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Post by guyfromhecker on Jun 3, 2018 15:57:55 GMT -6
Hmmm, wonder what the weather will be like up on the cape July 4? Probably better than here
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Post by guyfromhecker on Jun 3, 2018 20:37:27 GMT -6
Almost a no no by Wacha Wacha today Yeah, we were there. Would a been something to see. |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jun 4, 2018 0:42:11 GMT -6
Wow!! Kilauea and now a major volcanic erupted in Guatemala with 25 dead. How much Ash did that just pump in to the atmosphere? And how much of what other kind of gases? And what will all that do to our climate and weather?
Might make for some beautiful sunrises and sunsets.
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Jun 4, 2018 7:10:05 GMT -6
Somebody posted this on the Radarscope Facebook page. It seems so far a great addition to our weather info page if somebody wouldn't mind adding it. It even has a 10 step/tricks of outforecasting weather models. Like things weather models don't pick up on etc. Not sure how to exactly explain it. But you guys with way better knowledge will know. I believe this is a good page for the folks like myself that still don't fully have a concept of how to read models. www.theweatherprediction.comAlso it has good knowledge of weather info and fact too. |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jun 4, 2018 7:32:16 GMT -6
Some version of it seems to happen every year. From WKYC-TV Cleveland. Posted to Facebook this morning but I'm not sure when the radar image is from |
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Post by bdgwx on Jun 4, 2018 8:10:49 GMT -6
Wow!! Kilauea and now a major volcanic erupted in Guatemala with 25 dead. How much Ash did that just pump in to the atmosphere? And how much of what other kind of gases? And what will all that do to our climate and weather? Might make for some beautiful sunrises and sunsets. The 3 most common gases are H2O, CO2, and SO2. H2O and CO2 are obviously greenhouse gases that create a warming pressure though H2O has a really short residence time (duh...precipitation). SO2 is a weird one. It does absorb radiation in longwave spectrum (outgoing) which would normally mean it's a greenhouse gas except that it goes through various chemical reactions in the atmosphere that cause it to block radiation in the shortwave spectrum (incoming) too. It's residence times are even shorter than H2O so it's ability to effect the climate is minimal though it does cause regional effects like acid rain. Of these CO2 would be the gas with the longest lasting effect (hundreds of years), but the amount of CO2 produced by volcanic eruption is tiny compared to the other sources of CO2 that are emitted into the atmosphere on a continual basis. The biggest effect of a volcano is definitely the aerosols (think ash) that it ejects into the atmosphere. Aerosols typically (but not always) produce a cooling pressure on the Earth's biosphere because they block shortwave radiation (incoming). Toba is believed to have caused a decade long winter which then led into a several hundred year cooling period. It had a VEI of 8. Tambora in 1815 caused the " year without a summer". It had a VEI of 7. But, probably the most studied volcano which had a measurable effect on the global climate was Pinatubo in 1991. The cooling effect it had is quite obvious in pretty much every single dataset which publishes a global mean surface temperature. It had a VEI of 6. Interestingly, various climate scientists using different techniques correctly predicted that the Earth would cool immediately following the eruption. Hansen famously used the analog of the El Chichon eruption in 1982 (which had a VEI of 5) to correctly predict the timing and magnitude of the cooling. Multiple groups used climate models and also accurately predicted the cooling effect. As for Kilauea and Volcán de Fuego...I doubt their effects will be significant. Fuego's 2018 eruption is a VEI of 3. And Kilauea is barely worth mentioning with a VEI of 1 for it's current eruption which goes back to 1983 and includes the minimal puff of ash in 2018 as well. |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jun 4, 2018 9:54:00 GMT -6
Wow!! Kilauea and now a major volcanic erupted in Guatemala with 25 dead. How much Ash did that just pump in to the atmosphere? And how much of what other kind of gases? And what will all that do to our climate and weather? Might make for some beautiful sunrises and sunsets. The 3 most common gases are H2O, CO2, and SO2. H2O and CO2 are obviously greenhouse gases that create a warming pressure though H2O has a really short residence time (duh...precipitation). SO2 is a weird one. It does absorb radiation in longwave spectrum (outgoing) which would normally mean it's a greenhouse gas except that it goes through various chemical reactions in the atmosphere that cause it to block radiation in the shortwave spectrum (incoming) too. It's residence times are even shorter than H2O so it's ability to effect the climate is minimal though it does cause regional effects like acid rain. Of these CO2 would be the gas with the longest lasting effect (hundreds of years), but the amount of CO2 produced by volcanic eruption is tiny compared to the other sources of CO2 that are emitted into the atmosphere on a continual basis. The biggest effect of a volcano is definitely the aerosols (think ash) that it ejects into the atmosphere. Aerosols typically (but not always) produce a cooling pressure on the Earth's biosphere because they block shortwave radiation (incoming). Toba is believed to have caused a decade long winter which then led into a several hundred year cooling period. It had a VEI of 8. Tambora in 1815 caused the " year without a summer". It had a VEI of 7. But, probably the most studied volcano which had a measurable effect on the global climate was Pinatubo in 1991. The cooling effect it had is quite obvious in pretty much every single dataset which publishes a global mean surface temperature. It had a VEI of 6. Interestingly, various climate scientists using different techniques correctly predicted that the Earth would cool immediately following the eruption. Hansen famously used the analog of the El Chichon eruption in 1982 (which had a VEI of 5) to correctly predict the timing and magnitude of the cooling. Multiple groups used climate models and also accurately predicted the cooling effect. As for Kilauea and Volcán de Fuego...I doubt their effects will be significant. Fuego's 2018 eruption is a VEI of 3. And Kilauea is barely worth mentioning with a VEI of 1 for it's current eruption which goes back to 1983 and includes the minimal puff of ash in 2018 as well. I've read that it was the particulates of the eruption of Mt. Tambora that lead to the year without a summer. I've never heard them described as aerosols.
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Post by bdgwx on Jun 4, 2018 10:30:20 GMT -6
I've read that it was the particulates of the eruption of Mt. Tambora that lead to the year without a summer. I've never heard them described as aerosols.
Aerosol is a nerdy academic word for particulate matter suspended in a gas. In other words...it's the same thing  |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jun 4, 2018 10:44:21 GMT -6
Aerosols is the scientific word for pretty much anything that gets injected into the atmosphere.
As for our weather...
I originally had some spot t-showers in the forecast for tonight...and that mention has since dried up. However, looking at the shortwave and what is going on right now in KS and western MO... have to wonder if a few sprinkles at least may be possible this evening/tonight in what amounts to the deformation zone moves through...associated with the shortwave dropping through KS into AR.
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Post by Tilawn on Jun 4, 2018 18:54:33 GMT -6
Had a few sprinkles about an hour or so ago.
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