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Post by cozpregon on Jun 7, 2018 22:23:12 GMT -6
Hard to figure out what the magic trigger will be. I am leaving in a chance for storms for Sat Sun and Mon...but emphasizing they are tough to time and much of the weekend will be dry.
So much CAPE here and upstream the next several days... be surprised if we didn't see a couple rounds of storms.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jun 8, 2018 3:01:39 GMT -6
Personally I doubt we see much this weekend. Main track is well north of here. If an outflow comes into the area we could see more coverage, otherwise I would think pop up storms in the afternoon might be about it. Gonna be hot, gonna be muggy, gonna be gross. Tuesday Wednesday time frame probably best chances for any decent storm coverage as a front moves in. Summer sucks.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jun 8, 2018 7:37:25 GMT -6
Since there is little else going on I'll mention the first Pacific storm of the season has formed. Aletta is heading to the land where Pacific hurricanes go to die. |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jun 8, 2018 7:58:40 GMT -6
Hopefully we can get a few spot storms across the area this morning and a few of us can get lucky. Not to mention block out that hellacious sun.
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Post by mosue56 on Jun 8, 2018 9:28:06 GMT -6
STGOutdoors, Does the area have what it takes besides the Arch to allow the storms to develop today? Radars got nuthin!
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jun 8, 2018 13:46:58 GMT -6
Keep an eye on any MCS that gets going in Iowa later today. HRRR is hinting it might impact the region later tonight into tomorrow morning
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jun 8, 2018 13:50:27 GMT -6
Keep an eye on any MCS that gets going in Iowa later today. HRRR is hinting it might impact the region later tonight into tomorrow morning That's what I'm hoping for. Then it could lay down a boundary that could focus some activity tomorrow afternoon. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jun 8, 2018 15:44:21 GMT -6
Well, we now have the trigger to release the CAPE.  Well defined disturbance/MCV dropping southeast across Iowa is likely to initiate a substantial storm complex as it drops southeast this evening. HRRR does carry this... but seems like it might be a bit slow considering where things stand right now. Shear is not impressive...but there is plenty of CAPE and some modest mid-level lapse rates...so severe winds and some hail cannot be ruled out. Main risk is north of I-70 between midnight and 6 AM. The outflow from this complex will determine the region of greatest potential for tomorrow. |
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Post by mosue56 on Jun 8, 2018 16:43:08 GMT -6
Does this summer look like 2012 repeated to anyone?
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Jun 8, 2018 16:53:24 GMT -6
On a side note, the Jack N the Box in Troy was closed by the Health department. I'm sooooo glad! It was disgusting!! Might be a good story for Fox2Now Chris.
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Post by jmg378s on Jun 8, 2018 18:40:07 GMT -6
On a side note, the Jack N the Box in Troy was closed by the Health department. I'm sooooo glad! It was disgusting!! Might be a good story for Fox2Now Chris. Ha. I was just in there last month. But I didn't eat though...good thing I guess... |
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Jun 8, 2018 20:02:51 GMT -6
Those storms in northern MO... think they will make it to stl?
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jun 8, 2018 20:16:25 GMT -6
Those storms in northern MO... think they will make it to stl? In some form... yes. |
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Jun 8, 2018 20:21:10 GMT -6
Those storms in northern MO... think they will make it to stl? In some form... yes. Hahaha great answer! |
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Jun 8, 2018 21:23:53 GMT -6
Thanks for the heads up Chris on the ISS on Facebook .... that was pretty cool to see!
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jun 8, 2018 21:28:39 GMT -6
Officially moved in to Chicago last night. Going from 95 to 70 was nice. Worst things so far are the broadcasted Cubs games and the lack of snow. Hope to change one of those moving forward...
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Jun 8, 2018 21:39:12 GMT -6
Officially moved in to Chicago last night. Going from 95 to 70 was nice. Worst things so far are the broadcasted Cubs games and the lack of snow. Hope to change one of those moving forward... Congrats on the big move!! We sure will miss you around here come winter time |
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Jun 8, 2018 22:05:15 GMT -6
Looks like storms have weakened... 😩
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jun 8, 2018 22:29:51 GMT -6
Officially moved in to Chicago last night. Going from 95 to 70 was nice. Worst things so far are the broadcasted Cubs games and the lack of snow. Hope to change one of those moving forward... Congrats on the big move!! We sure will miss you around here come winter time Thanks! My guess is you guys get one hell of a winter with me gone. In which case my attitude will miror Smowman99 lol. Hoping to still glance at model runs and run things by the brilliant people around here. Probably just will have to cut back from reading 12 models 4 runs a day. Have to keep the day job to pay the (very high) rent lol. |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jun 8, 2018 23:07:22 GMT -6
Looks like storms have weakened... 😩 Yeah, dying pretty quickly. Going to have troubles making it here unless they regerate or push out a boundary where new ones form
Good luck with the new job STL-WC
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Post by Snowman99 on Jun 8, 2018 23:26:17 GMT -6
Does in some form mean maybe a few clouds?
Congrats on move wsc. Have a good life. Bye. See ya. Adios. Bon voyage. Don't be a stranger. Love you. 😚
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jun 9, 2018 0:35:44 GMT -6
Well, the batch in Nebraska looks healthy and has potential...for now
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Post by jeepers on Jun 9, 2018 6:51:25 GMT -6
Good luck with your new everything, wsc! Lots of great things in Chicago. And condolences about the Cubs, but at least you could easily come down to STL for a weekend Cards game.
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Post by toddatfarmington on Jun 9, 2018 7:21:45 GMT -6
Little surprised the cell in st Francois county isn't warned for hail. Edit: I now see they have it covered with a special weather advisory
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jun 9, 2018 7:25:55 GMT -6
That little cell that popped up over Arnold woke me up from the hail. I’d say .5” sized
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Post by mosue56 on Jun 9, 2018 7:52:07 GMT -6
Thunder in Festus with the sun shining!
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jun 9, 2018 8:19:40 GMT -6
Will those cells over Lincoln, Warren and western St. Charles Counties hang together long enough to wet the pavement or fall apart before they get here?
That is the question
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jun 9, 2018 8:46:31 GMT -6
The 'ol St. Louie Split!
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lunchladyd
Junior Forecaster
On the Troy -Silex, Mo. line
Posts: 399 
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Post by lunchladyd on Jun 9, 2018 9:00:42 GMT -6
The garden is getting a nice drink.
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Post by jeepers on Jun 9, 2018 9:02:14 GMT -6
Heard thunder about 10 minutes again inside of the house, cells nowhere near me.
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