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Post by yypc on Oct 3, 2018 17:19:56 GMT -6
“Unhealthy air quality for sensitive groups.” This damn SE ridge needs to die.
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Post by jmg378s on Oct 3, 2018 21:44:38 GMT -6
Looking like another under-performing severe day in Wisconsin/Michigan. Seems like there's always some missing ingredient or some mitigating factors this year. Though it was pretty active in Pennsylvania and New York yesterday. I think Pennsylvania had more tornadoes on that one October day than Oklahoma did the whole month of May this year actually.
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Post by unclesam6 on Oct 3, 2018 22:59:38 GMT -6
Looking like another under-performing severe day in Wisconsin/Michigan. Seems like there's always some missing ingredient or some mitigating factors this year. Though it was pretty active in Pennsylvania and New York yesterday. I think Pennsylvania had more tornadoes on that one October day than Oklahoma did the whole month of May this year actually. it seems like models do a poor job handling residual cloud cover preceding these storms, or something else is up-- At least for us over the past spring and summer, we've seen 2 or 3 events go bust here in central MO due to persistent morning cloud cover sucking up any potential instability. |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Oct 4, 2018 2:54:12 GMT -6
And the line of showers develops just south and east of the city. Bummer. We need the rain.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Oct 4, 2018 6:43:40 GMT -6
Starting to look like a pretty active wet weather pattern shaping up through the weekend and into next week.
This SE ridge is very strong...we haven't seen it in a while and it could be a preview of winter. Honestly I would take that over the dry disorganized bitter cold mess we had last year. Yea, it is likely that many systems would cut to our NW, but during these kinds of winters at least a couple of them take a favorable track. And they usually have lots of moisture to work with. Just a thought.
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Post by guyfromhecker on Oct 4, 2018 8:45:48 GMT -6
Starting to look like a pretty active wet weather pattern shaping up through the weekend and into next week. This SE ridge is very strong...we haven't seen it in a while and it could be a preview of winter. Honestly I would take that over the dry disorganized bitter cold mess we had last year. Yea, it is likely that many systems would cut to our NW, but during these kinds of winters at least a couple of them take a favorable track. And they usually have lots of moisture to work with. Just a thought. I guess you haven't gotten around to replying yet. I'm waiting |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Oct 4, 2018 10:28:43 GMT -6
Starting to look like a pretty active wet weather pattern shaping up through the weekend and into next week. This SE ridge is very strong...we haven't seen it in a while and it could be a preview of winter. Honestly I would take that over the dry disorganized bitter cold mess we had last year. Yea, it is likely that many systems would cut to our NW, but during these kinds of winters at least a couple of them take a favorable track. And they usually have lots of moisture to work with. Just a thought. Agreed. It's nice to see some actual cyclones developing along with a highly amplified pattern. |
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Post by guyfromhecker on Oct 4, 2018 10:32:52 GMT -6
Starting to look like a pretty active wet weather pattern shaping up through the weekend and into next week. This SE ridge is very strong...we haven't seen it in a while and it could be a preview of winter. Honestly I would take that over the dry disorganized bitter cold mess we had last year. Yea, it is likely that many systems would cut to our NW, but during these kinds of winters at least a couple of them take a favorable track. And they usually have lots of moisture to work with. Just a thought. Agreed. It's nice to see some actual cyclones developing along with a highly amplified pattern. They pretty much go together, don't they? |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Oct 4, 2018 12:35:49 GMT -6
Agreed. It's nice to see some actual cyclones developing along with a highly amplified pattern. They pretty much go together, don't they? Typically, although I've seen some pretty strong (and typically compact) lows from a fairly low-amplitude flow when a strong thermal gradient is present. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Oct 4, 2018 14:08:45 GMT -6
Glad to see you guys chatting about tye pattern. I have been on a bit of a social media break (self-imposed) while I am on vacation. My son arrived home from school for fall break last night and my neice is getting married Saturday.
I will be back on the air Tuesday morning! Until then... enjoy!
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Post by Jeffmw on Oct 4, 2018 15:25:51 GMT -6
Any signs of Fall in the Models?
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Oct 4, 2018 18:03:54 GMT -6
Posted to Facebook by my cousin's daughter about 6 PM Thursday. This is Marion, North Dakota - about 80 miles west of Fargo  |
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Post by John G -west belleville on Oct 4, 2018 19:36:26 GMT -6
Saw a first of the season this morning. I was in Columbia, il and saw the first flock of migrating specklebelly geese flying high. An hour later a flock of pelicans circling in the distance.
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Post by mosue56 on Oct 4, 2018 19:37:50 GMT -6
At least the birds know it’s time!
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Post by House Springs ~ DeerKiller ~ on Oct 4, 2018 20:23:13 GMT -6
been out here in bar harbor/stonington Maine the last 10 days getting lobster for my stores lobster sale this Saturday and OMG this weather is fantastic almost as good as the lobster I've been eating the tides are awesome up here big swings up n down... been in the 60 most days the last 3 in the 50s heading west tomorrow not looking forward to the summer weather still going on at home :-( o well end of Oct I'm going to pagosa springs for a elk hunt!!!
Live Maine LOBSTERS For Sale $14.99 lb
14433 Manchester rd (just west of 141)
facebook.com/thefruitstand
OCTOBER 6TH
8AM-6PM
These Are The Best, Sweetest, Freshest LOBSTERS You Can Get We Will Be Picking Them Up Ourselves And Posting Pictures And Videos Of Our Journey Along The Way! We Will Be Picking Them Up From 'Bar Harbor Maine'
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Post by House Springs ~ DeerKiller ~ on Oct 4, 2018 20:26:30 GMT -6
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Post by STGOutdoors on Oct 4, 2018 20:45:26 GMT -6
Beautiful pics! That looks awesome...I hope to visit that part of the country some day. Lobster look great too. Drive all the way up there?
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Post by STGOutdoors on Oct 5, 2018 10:01:23 GMT -6
Not surprisingly, the NAM and GFS are showing the potential for a significant tropical system developing in the southern GOM next week. Like I said the other day...when things lock up across the country and you have organized convection in the GOM or western Caribbean, chances are something is going to take off.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Oct 5, 2018 10:08:04 GMT -6
It may not become a major hurricane or anything like that, but it at some point will interact with the big front coming through next week which will likely lead to some hefty rains for someone.
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Post by ComoEsJn on Oct 5, 2018 10:10:23 GMT -6
It may not become a major hurricane or anything like that, but it at some point will interact with the big front coming through next week which will likely lead to some hefty rains for someone. as long as you keep telling me that the big front is coming through next week still, I'll take it, dry or rain.  |
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Post by Jeffmw on Oct 5, 2018 11:00:16 GMT -6
My yahoo weather app is showing some pretty cool temps by this time next week.
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Post by mosue56 on Oct 5, 2018 11:05:55 GMT -6
Jeffmw, more than ready for those temps! It’s October and it’s actually fall according to the calendar for Pete’s sake! It seems it comes later and later every year! And then the wind and rain strip the trees before the color finally comes to enjoy! The western UP and northern MN got snow already! Not a lot but it’s coming!
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Post by John G -west belleville on Oct 5, 2018 13:57:59 GMT -6
Got to give us a heads up. I would have definitely bought one or two.
How cheap is lobster up there that you can make such a long trip?
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Post by cozpregon on Oct 5, 2018 21:09:50 GMT -6
Still wouldn’t rule out a severe chance later afternoon
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Post by House Springs ~ DeerKiller ~ on Oct 6, 2018 4:40:39 GMT -6
Beautiful pics! That looks awesome...I hope to visit that part of the country some day. Lobster look great too. Drive all the way up there? yes long drive but well worth it... 55* when i left this morning |
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Post by House Springs ~ DeerKiller ~ on Oct 6, 2018 4:44:44 GMT -6
Got to give us a heads up. I would have definitely bought one or two. How cheap is lobster up there that you can make such a long trip? facebook.com/thefruitstand has all my seafood sales^^^ we been selling seafood monthly for a few years now this is the first time we have sold lobster it's on pace to do pretty good! we went up for so long to research who has best lobsters, price, ect. but next trip will be shorter since we got a good supplier now! im.going yo Alaska soon to get in on the snow crab/king crab game follow my page if you like local fruit and fresh seafood!!! facebook.com/thefruitstand |
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Post by House Springs ~ DeerKiller ~ on Oct 6, 2018 4:45:51 GMT -6
BTW I grabbed some extra lobsters for all those who didnt pre order just come early we open at 8am
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Oct 6, 2018 8:50:17 GMT -6
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Post by jmg378s on Oct 6, 2018 9:32:38 GMT -6
There's still time to wait and see how things evolve today, but I would not be surprised if the SPC extends the slight risk back to the southwest. Dewpoints are currently in the upper 60s to lower 70s and with mostly clear to clears skies we should see plenty of destabilization as the front arrives around peak heating. With 30+kts of effective shear and perhaps 1500 j/kg MLCAPE that would be enough for organized severe storms. Last few runs of HRRR have been showing a lot of activity in and round the metro; the latest run showing some respectable UH tracks too. Should storms form and become severe wind appears to be the primary threat.
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Jeke
Junior Forecaster
Old Jamestown, MO
Posts: 320 
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Post by Jeke on Oct 6, 2018 10:04:16 GMT -6
Any idea on timing for today?
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