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Post by STGOutdoors on Oct 7, 2018 8:57:41 GMT -6
I am about to fire up the smoker to throw some smoke on some pork bellies... am I looking at rain anytime between noon and 5? I think we are looking at a similar setup to yesterday, but likely further west. That doesn't rule out a spot storm but the focus will likely be in the western portions of the viewing area. Nws now thinking TD 14 will become a hurricane prior to landfall in the eastern GOM by mid to late week. |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Oct 7, 2018 9:01:40 GMT -6
Getting much brighter the last 15 minutes or so. Almost what I would say "sunny." Still overcast, but at least the forecast is burning off.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Oct 7, 2018 9:05:42 GMT -6
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Post by Snowman99 on Oct 7, 2018 9:48:45 GMT -6
Yeah looks like a hurricane hit in the FL panhandle later in the week.Going to have watch that, could get stronger than expected. Finally looks like Fall arrives here later in the week, holidays just around the corner!  |
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jipper
Weather Weenie
Wentzville
Posts: 12 
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Post by jipper on Oct 7, 2018 10:12:17 GMT -6
I'm guessing that the hail that fell on the 10th is counted as "snow" in the daily summary. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Oct 7, 2018 10:49:50 GMT -6
GFS has a pretty strong hurricane making landfall Wednesday.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Oct 7, 2018 11:08:52 GMT -6
GFS has a pretty strong hurricane making landfall Wednesday. Wouldn't doubt it. It has 3 days over the GOM with favorable conditions. Could be a rapidly intensifying system. Just have to see how it behaves...they all have a mind of their own. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Oct 7, 2018 11:19:46 GMT -6
Just for fun...last night's EURO has flurries around next weekend with a very cool airmass moving in.
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Oct 7, 2018 12:00:09 GMT -6
Wind has picked up a bit here... hard to maintain temp on my stick burning smoker...
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Oct 7, 2018 12:01:31 GMT -6
Looking at the radar... I may get all the smoke on in time but will have to finish in the oven.
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Post by Snowman99 on Oct 7, 2018 12:40:08 GMT -6
Euro has an even stronger hurricane in FL on Thursday
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Oct 7, 2018 12:52:38 GMT -6
DISCUSSION...Scattered strong storms, with a multicellular storm
mode, have recently initiated along/just south of a differential
heating boundary in central Missouri. These storms are traversing an
airmass thermodynamically characterized by relatively poor
tropospheric lapse rates (6 C/km or less), but deep low-level
moisture (with latest RAP PFCs indicating PWAT values exceeding
1.5-1.75 inches and near saturated conditions extending up to 850
mb). Strong heating is underway downstream of the storms in
east-central Missouri into central Illinois, with temperatures
reaching well into the 80s, with MLCAPE values rapidly surpassing
1500-2000 J/kg across much of the discussion area.
With storms expected to remain mainly multicellular in nature, wet
downbursts and associated damaging wind gusts are expected to be the
primary threat. Modest low to mid-level flow is in place, with
strong veering noted in the 500-1000 m layer, resulting in SRH
exceeding 100-150 m2/s2 in both 0-1 km, and in the effective layer.
As such, the more dominant, discrete updrafts may have the
propensity to rotate and demonstrate supercellular characteristics,
perhaps bearing the risk for a brief tornado. This may especially be
the case for any storm that can traverse the differential heating
boundary for longer periods of time, with undisturbed inflow.
Still, the severe threat is expected to remain rather isolated in
nature, and a WW issuance is not expected at this time.
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Post by jmg378s on Oct 7, 2018 13:31:00 GMT -6
Pretty good indication on radar of some large hail in Montgomery County.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Oct 7, 2018 13:35:00 GMT -6
Warned supercell west of Hermann showing broad rotation.
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Post by jmg378s on Oct 7, 2018 13:35:09 GMT -6
Wouldn't be surprised if there was some 2+" hail. Really low CC values co-located with high reflectivity aloft indicative of mie-scattering from large hail.
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Post by jmg378s on Oct 7, 2018 13:36:30 GMT -6
Warned supercell west of Hermann showing broad rotation. Impressive cell all things considered. Starting to get some tight rotation at the lowest scan angle. |
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Post by nascarfan999 on Oct 7, 2018 13:42:02 GMT -6
Is it just me or is the warning box on that cell way off on the orientation. Seems like it should be much more south to north and not west to east.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Oct 7, 2018 13:57:07 GMT -6
Warned supercell west of Hermann showing broad rotation. Impressive cell all things considered. Starting to get some tight rotation at the lowest scan angle. It's also a right mover... |
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Post by Tilawn on Oct 7, 2018 13:59:49 GMT -6
Lots of thunder and lightning for the last 45 minutes with pockets of very heavy rainfall. Electronic rain gauge not working tho for some reason.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Oct 7, 2018 14:06:35 GMT -6
Radar indicated tornado near Jeff City
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Oct 7, 2018 14:09:22 GMT -6
Will this transition east at all?
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Post by jmg378s on Oct 7, 2018 14:16:38 GMT -6
Back to the tropics for a moment. Global models are "seeing" a decently favorable environment in the Gulf for Michael. Area averaged forecast sounding from the GFS showing less than 15kts of shear with very high 70% mid-level RH. As long as the central US trough and the Michael don't get too close this trough may actually help to intensify the cyclone by providing an outflow channel to the north. In fact it appears on the GFS that we might see a dual-outflow channel setup. 18z SHIPS diagnostics put rapid intensification probablities between 10-20% which is pretty good. But Florence is a recent reminder that these intensity forecasts can be notoriously difficult in either direction.  |
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Post by Snowman99 on Oct 7, 2018 15:20:09 GMT -6
NHC has Michael getting to 100 mph prior to landfall. We shall see
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Oct 7, 2018 15:58:35 GMT -6
Global models have me getting excited about Friday...Would be the earliest snow I have ever seen.
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Post by Snowman99 on Oct 7, 2018 16:20:25 GMT -6
Pfft...no one cares about Chicago. 🙄😑
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Post by Tilawn on Oct 7, 2018 16:39:06 GMT -6
Global models have me getting excited about Friday...Would be the earliest snow I have ever seen. Have your wheel well picked out yet?? |
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twocat
Junior Forecaster
North St. Peters off Cave Springs
Posts: 395 
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Post by twocat on Oct 7, 2018 16:51:40 GMT -6
1.7 inches according to the Davis on the roof. Lots of slow, rumbling thunder with this event. First decent rain in a LONG time here.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Oct 7, 2018 17:04:16 GMT -6
1.7 inches according to the Davis on the roof. Lots of slow, rumbling thunder with this event. First decent rain in a LONG time here. Most rain we've seen since right before Memorial Day, I think. Retention pond has water standing in it for the first time in a while |
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campingfamily
Weather Weenie
Birdie Hills and Knaust Rd St. Peters, MO
Posts: 54
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Post by campingfamily on Oct 7, 2018 17:32:13 GMT -6
Global models have me getting excited about Friday...Would be the earliest snow I have ever seen. Are you serious? So, Daughter is in Chicago for college (freshman year), and I've warned her that she might see a different winter there than what she's used to. But, that would be crazy! And, of course, Son is headed up there this weekend, for a college visit day (he's a junior). I may wish I had tagged along! |
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Post by red12 Hillsboro,mo on Oct 7, 2018 18:19:13 GMT -6
Less than quarter of inch of rain in imperial as to 6pm
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