|
|
Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Oct 7, 2018 19:13:27 GMT -6
Global models have me getting excited about Friday...Would be the earliest snow I have ever seen. Are you serious? So, Daughter is in Chicago for college (freshman year), and I've warned her that she might see a different winter there than what she's used to. But, that would be crazy! And, of course, Son is headed up there this weekend, for a college visit day (he's a junior). I may wish I had tagged along! Some of the models have shown a little snow, but its still pretty unlikely. Definitely will feel like late fall or early winter though. |
|
|
|
Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Oct 7, 2018 19:14:29 GMT -6
Global models have me getting excited about Friday...Would be the earliest snow I have ever seen. Have your wheel well picked out yet?? Still narrowing it down. I think it's more of an in the moment decision. |
|
|
|
Post by ComoEsJn on Oct 7, 2018 19:20:28 GMT -6
Have your wheel well picked out yet?? Still narrowing it down. I think it's more of an in the moment decision. If we ever did a Morethanweather fantasy sports league, I call dibs on the team name "Chicago Wheel Wells" |
|
|
|
Post by bellevillewxguy on Oct 8, 2018 5:19:34 GMT -6
Micheal could make landfall near Tallahassee, FL as a Cat 3 to 4 with the Hi-Res NAM showing it as a Cat 5 things are gonna escalate quickly. Watching this one as my family might be considering moving down there in about 10 years or so when my father retires.
|
|
|
|
Post by jmg378s on Oct 8, 2018 5:49:53 GMT -6
Micheal could make landfall near Tallahassee, FL as a Cat 3 to 4 with the Hi-Res NAM showing it as a Cat 5 things are gonna escalate quickly. Watching this one as my family might be considering moving down there in about 10 years or so when my father retires. The official NHC forecast brings Michael close to Cat 3. The NAM of course is a terrible model for tropical intensity forecasting but it is concerning that the 3 major global models (UK, ECM, GFS) and the best hi-res intensity model (HWRF) are all showing a strengthening hurricane at landfall with pressure roughly between 935-950mb. In fact the NHC has already noted that despite shear the cyclone has technically gone through a rapid intensification phase already. Shear should relax some over time as well. So yeah, agree, I think there's definitely a chance Michael could be a major hurricane and I wouldn't rule out Cat 4 either. |
|
|
|
Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Oct 8, 2018 7:11:29 GMT -6
Still narrowing it down. I think it's more of an in the moment decision. If we ever did a Morethanweather fantasy sports league, I call dibs on the team name "Chicago Wheel Wells" Maybe the name of a book - "Chicago Wheel Wells I have Known" |
|
|
|
Post by STGOutdoors on Oct 8, 2018 8:57:43 GMT -6
Michael is now a Hurricane, and NHC expecting at least a Cat 3 at landfall. I'd be very concerned if I lived in the Panhandle.
|
|
|
|
Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Oct 8, 2018 9:24:55 GMT -6
And that moisture going into the eastern Carolinas is going to cause more flooding, too
|
|
|
|
Post by mosue56 on Oct 8, 2018 9:31:14 GMT -6
But isn't it going faster, esp after landfall? Florence slowed and wouldn't move so more rain. Hopefully Michael zips right through!
|
|
|
|
Post by bellevillewxguy on Oct 8, 2018 10:27:40 GMT -6
Looks like Panama City, FL is in the Bullseye of what should be a high end cat 3 or cat 4. This all fits well with the Typhoon Rule as a trough dug down into Korea and eastern China while picking up a Typhoon a week ago which tore through Korea and the Sea of Japan. Now we have a strong trough diving into the Midwest and a Hurricane booking it for Florida. Pretty good match up I'd say and fits the 7 to 10 day lag period very well.
Using the same rule we should be facing a potential warm to record warm Halloween as a monster Upper Level Ridge (ULR) establishes itself over Japan between the 18th and the 23rd.
|
|
|
|
Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Oct 8, 2018 10:31:47 GMT -6
But isn't it going faster, esp after landfall? Florence slowed and wouldn't move so more rain. Hopefully Michael zips right through! Yeah, not going to drop another 30+ inches. But everything is still saturated and the rivers are still running high. So any substantial rain is not appreciated |
|
|
|
Post by STGOutdoors on Oct 8, 2018 13:29:57 GMT -6
Best those folks down there can hope for is that Michael makes landfall half way in between Fort Walton Beach and Panama City. A direct hit from the right front quadrant of a strengthening hurricane at PCB would be a bad deal.
|
|
modracer
Weather Intern
MASCOUTAH, Illinois
Posts: 835
|
Post by modracer on Oct 8, 2018 13:47:10 GMT -6
And who takes dibs on "Cooler By The Lake" and his Kojac looks...lol Still narrowing it down. I think it's more of an in the moment decision. If we ever did a Morethanweather fantasy sports league, I call dibs on the team name "Chicago Wheel Wells" |
|
|
|
Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Oct 8, 2018 18:29:31 GMT -6
Flood watches in effect from the Rio Grande to Lake Superior.
And another Pacific tropical system looks like it will be moving in to the southwest US by the weekend.
|
|
|
|
Post by STGOutdoors on Oct 8, 2018 18:45:29 GMT -6
Flood watches in effect from the Rio Grande to Lake Superior. And another Pacific tropical system looks like it will be moving in to the southwest US by the weekend. The pacific system could eventually spray some light snow across the Great Lakes. That's different eh? |
|
|
|
Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Oct 8, 2018 19:33:04 GMT -6
Flood watches in effect from the Rio Grande to Lake Superior. And another Pacific tropical system looks like it will be moving in to the southwest US by the weekend. The pacific system could eventually spray some light snow across the Great Lakes. That's different eh? Wife is going to an outdoor wedding in southern Wisconsin this weekend. She's concerned about the cold. She is hoping there's no snow. We're both wondering why the geniuses scheduled an outdoor wedding in Wisconsin in mid-October The chances of "good“ weather are pretty slim. |
|
|
|
Post by STGOutdoors on Oct 8, 2018 20:14:14 GMT -6
Looks like Michael's eye is beginning to take shape. Enough time for some rapid intensification. The eastern Gulf is notorious for this.
|
|
|
|
Post by cozpregon on Oct 8, 2018 21:49:51 GMT -6
|
|
|
|
Post by bellevillewxguy on Oct 8, 2018 22:00:02 GMT -6
ICON getting real close to some snow around here with the weekend storm. Also GFS seems to be trending notably colder as well this run. Looks like the real McCoy pattern change this time rather than the usual 1 day tease.
|
|
|
|
Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Oct 9, 2018 2:17:46 GMT -6
Interesting path projected for Hurricane Leslie, too. Usually when a tropical is in the eastern Atlantic it's either just coming off Africa or has is near the Gulf Stream and is heading towards the British Isles. I'm sure it's happened before but, off the top of my head, I don't recall such a strong tropical storm taking aim at Portugal.
|
|
|
|
Post by jmg378s on Oct 9, 2018 5:27:19 GMT -6
Looks like Michael may be strengthening again. Recent recon dropsonde in the eye was 968mb and SFMR was 90kts. Satellite presentation looks better too with outflow able to expand in pretty much all quadrants now. Perhaps a sign that shear is already relaxing some. May see a legit eye today, no?
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowman99 on Oct 9, 2018 5:53:10 GMT -6
100 mph now as of 7 am update
|
|
|
|
Post by STGOutdoors on Oct 9, 2018 6:21:41 GMT -6
Looks like Michael may be strengthening again. Recent recon dropsonde in the eye was 968mb and SFMR was 90kts. Satellite presentation looks better too with outflow able to expand in pretty much all quadrants now. Perhaps a sign that shear is already relaxing some. May see a legit eye today, no? I believe so...the last half hour or so shows a legit pinhole eye really trying to establish itself. Once that happens its going to explode. Very strong convection has never been an issue with this system. My prediction is Cat. 4 at landfall. |
|
|
|
Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Oct 9, 2018 6:28:33 GMT -6
00z euro showing snow in Missouri this weekend.
Pretty crazy
|
|
|
|
Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Oct 9, 2018 6:48:35 GMT -6
00z euro showing snow in Missouri this weekend. Pretty crazy Not in east central Missouri, I'm guessing? |
|
|
|
Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Oct 9, 2018 6:57:21 GMT -6
00z euro showing snow in Missouri this weekend. Pretty crazy Not in east central Missouri, I'm guessing? Kc and north |
|
|
|
Post by guyfromhecker on Oct 9, 2018 9:53:25 GMT -6
If Michael becomes concentric within the next 12 hours expect him to explode. I don't know if he can pull it off though
|
|
|
|
Post by mosue56 on Oct 9, 2018 9:55:47 GMT -6
Guy, he may be moving too fast to accomplish that? Which may be a blessing for the Panhandle residents!
|
|
|
|
Post by STGOutdoors on Oct 9, 2018 9:58:48 GMT -6
If Michael becomes concentric within the next 12 hours expect him to explode. I don't know if he can pull it off though It's certainly tying. I agree that if it does it will go nuts. |
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on Oct 9, 2018 10:14:44 GMT -6
The fact that it's intensified slightly while looking asymmetrical is telling...if it pulls a concentric eyewall together, look out. Even if it doesn't intensify further...Michael is still a dangerous storm from a surge standpoint.
|
|
