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Post by guyfromhecker on Oct 11, 2018 9:24:51 GMT -6
In the areas of heaviest surge it's hard to tell what damage was done by wind and what damage was done by water. Got to analyze that stuff.
Water can rip apart a house as easily wind can.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Oct 11, 2018 9:33:59 GMT -6
Yea, that's very impressive. It seems most people got the heck out of there otherwise we would be hearing about many more injuries and deaths. |
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Oct 11, 2018 9:55:45 GMT -6
Yea, that's very impressive. It seems most people got the heck out of there otherwise we would be hearing about many more injuries and deaths. Wow how awful! 😢 |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Oct 11, 2018 9:56:20 GMT -6
Jeff Pietrowski claimed to see several tornadoes yesterday in the eyewall. Some of the damage would support those vortices within the eyewall, but you never know as he tends to go a little overboard at times.
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Post by mchafin on Oct 11, 2018 10:03:38 GMT -6
I'm no damage expert, but that looks like CAT 5 in Mexico Beach. You can clearly see those structures built to sustain CAT 4/5 winds and those that weren't. So sad. |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Oct 11, 2018 10:07:28 GMT -6
On another note it looks like western Kansas along with the panhandles of TX and OK are going to get some snow Sunday. Then the system gets squashed it appears. It doesn't matter now given we are in mid October but we would be pretty bummed if it was a month or so from now.
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Post by guyfromhecker on Oct 11, 2018 10:22:20 GMT -6
I'm no damage expert, but that looks like CAT 5 in Mexico Beach. You can clearly see those structures built to sustain CAT 4/5 winds and those that weren't. So sad. in areas where they had the strong surge some of those houses may have been ripped apart by the surge. You can't give all the credit to the winds until the score is added up. |
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Post by guyfromhecker on Oct 11, 2018 12:52:44 GMT -6
A wire story I just read said only 20 out of 285 people who chose to stay in Mexico Beach are accounted for. Hope that is wrong.
If that 285 figure is correct that means one out of four people in that town chose to stay. That is a sad figure.
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Post by shrapnel - Arnold, MO on Oct 11, 2018 13:06:54 GMT -6
The damage in Panama City Beach is impressive considering they were left front / offshore winds.
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Post by guyfromhecker on Oct 11, 2018 13:14:45 GMT -6
The damage in Panama City Beach is impressive considering they were left front / offshore winds. No doubt |
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Post by guyfromhecker on Oct 11, 2018 13:21:11 GMT -6
I saw that there was a 175 mile an hour gust measured at Panama City. Not sure about the veracity of that. I do believe though, that was the part of the storm Chris saw the extremely high winds at 3500 feet before it came on shore. So you never know.
I have a gut feeling before all is said and done they're going to up this to 160 mile an hour hurricane
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Post by STGOutdoors on Oct 11, 2018 14:12:05 GMT -6
Tornado and severe thunderstorm warnings on the backside of Michael at the moment.
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Post by dschreib on Oct 11, 2018 14:22:47 GMT -6
Dave just shared a forecast map showing a still-organized Michael making it potentially to southern Ireland?? Is that normal for one of these storms? It's going to pop off the east coast into 25C waters. As a rule, I believe they generally get picked up and move back across the northern Atlantic pretty quickly. It might remain "organized", but I can't imagine it would be much of a threat. Then again, I manage a factory...so that's just a guess. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Oct 11, 2018 15:24:42 GMT -6
I saw that there was a 175 mile an hour gust measured at Panama City. Not sure about the veracity of that. I do believe though, that was the part of the storm Chris saw the extremely high winds at 3500 feet before it came on shore. So you never know. I have a gut feeling before all is said and done they're going to up this to 160 mile an hour hurricane I'd have to question that as well. Not many instruments out there that can survive 150mph+ winds. |
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Post by mosue56 on Oct 11, 2018 15:37:56 GMT -6
There is a FB page for the noaa hurricane hunters that one of them took some Michael photos inside it before landfall! So cool and amazing!
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Post by jmg378s on Oct 11, 2018 16:03:50 GMT -6
I saw that there was a 175 mile an hour gust measured at Panama City. Not sure about the veracity of that. I do believe though, that was the part of the storm Chris saw the extremely high winds at 3500 feet before it came on shore. So you never know. I have a gut feeling before all is said and done they're going to up this to 160 mile an hour hurricane I'd have to question that as well. Not many instruments out there that can survive 150mph+ winds.
Sounds suspicious to me too. Though there was that personal weather station, I think a Davis, in St. Barthelemy that recorded an unofficial 199mph gust and got a mention in the NHC report on Irma...
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Post by Snowman99 on Oct 11, 2018 16:11:16 GMT -6
Some of the video I've seen from inside the eye of Michael is totally awesome. The eyewall around it, sun shining,just eerie.
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Post by jmg378s on Oct 11, 2018 16:17:23 GMT -6
I have a gut feeling before all is said and done they're going to up this to 160 mile an hour hurricane
Mainly just academic at this point, but yes I agree I think you could make a case for an upgrade. The satellite presentation and pressure were consistent with a Cat 5, but more importantly the one reliable measurement made during the last recon pass was a flight level wind of 152kts which had increased substantially since a previous advisory set the intensity at 135kts. That, along with some other clues that may or may not emerge in post-analysis, could be just enough to set a best track intensity at 140kts.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Oct 11, 2018 16:30:44 GMT -6
I'm sensing the velocity of posts about Michael are slowing down, so I'll put my "just for fun" numbers out for the upcoming winter, that I delayed out of respect for the Michael followers: 24/0/0. Scientists scroll on by - I realize there's no skill from the data I have access otherwise, somebody else would have cracked that code. Just for fun ..really an indication the characterization of winter including how much snow I think we'll get. We'll see the southern track get active, and we'll see phasing with the northern branch, especially in January and February. Last year, the major issue with commuters was car batteries due to the intense cold. This year, we'll see more of an impact with commuting due to snow. Should see storm systems coming out of the southwest and impact southern MO (along and south of 70) on several different occasions. These storm systems would provide mainly snow for us in the heart of Winter. In December, that will be the setup month - the month where snowpack builds across the north, but we may miss out on much of that activity as storm systems cut to our north. That snowpack will allow high pressure to build over the north and impulses of energy will develop southwestern lows along a phased jet and move into the lower Midwest and OH valley. 24 inches of snow, total; no real threat of flooding rains; no real threat of severe thunderstorms. Once winter gets started, it's pure winter. The last two winters, I put out 6 and 9 respectively....ended up high, so I tempered my snowfall number this year a bit.
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Post by mchafin on Oct 11, 2018 16:35:04 GMT -6
There is a FB page for the noaa hurricane hunters that one of them took some Michael photos inside it before landfall! So cool and amazing! what's the name? |
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Post by mosue56 on Oct 11, 2018 17:23:07 GMT -6
The NOAA Hurricane Hunters are types in on FB search or just a search engine but add Facebook and you can like them and they send pics from their flights on FB!
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Post by ComoEsJn on Oct 11, 2018 22:40:59 GMT -6
remember how its been grossly humid since May? The dew point is currently 39. Ahhhhhhhh.
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Post by House Springs ~ DeerKiller ~ on Oct 12, 2018 6:32:30 GMT -6
Guys It Actually Feels Like FALL! Cool, Cloudy, Showers All Day This Is What Its All About!!! Time To Unload All These Pumpkins So I Can Go Fill My Tag Those Deer Are Ripe & Ready To Be Picked!🦌
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14433 Manchester Rd
Manchester Mo. 63011
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Huge Display of 2/$4.99 Pumpkins🎃🎃🎃
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Oct 12, 2018 8:06:02 GMT -6
An Australian woman was badly bruised as she shielded her 4 month old baby from baseball sized hail. Full story here |
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Post by unclesam6 on Oct 12, 2018 10:17:17 GMT -6
Sunday night is so awfully close for a wet mix of snowflakes
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Oct 12, 2018 10:25:49 GMT -6
Now this is some fall weather. Cloudy, rainy, temps in the 40’s. The fall colors should really start to explode with these cool temps
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Post by unclesam6 on Oct 12, 2018 10:27:24 GMT -6
Now this is some fall weather. Cloudy, rainy, temps in the 40’s. The fall colors should really start to explode with these cool temps it's an amazing difference already over the past 3 or 4 days-- I've already counted 5 or 6 trees (in each bunch) really starting to bounce out of the groups I typically see on my commute. |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Oct 12, 2018 12:10:46 GMT -6
I certainly think we are seeing a preview of the winter pattern with the NW flow. We saw it basically all winter last year and through April. Sure it relaxed over the summer months, but I stand firm that the preceding spring's pattern often times re-establishes itself in fall and into the next winter. This year it appears that the southern jet will actually have some activity which could mean some fun times here on the forum once again.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Oct 12, 2018 12:58:25 GMT -6
Since Beaker got us going on predictions I'll throw mine out...
Mine is mostly based on not living there any longer...
I expect the metro to see a nice winter since my last three there sucked lol.
I'm going with 20 inches at lambert (closer to 25 inches in the suburbs).
Up in Chicago, I'm going with 30 inches, so it could be a good race between us.
I think winter will finally start early for STL with a winter storm warning in the first two weeks of December (December 12th is sticking out for no particular reason). Then the clipper train sets in for those further north like me. Fast forward to February and you guys get another major snow (6-10 inches). February is usually a big month for snow in St. Louis and I like the bookended season this year. Also, not expecting the extreme cold from last year for you guys (no -10 to -20 degree days like last winter).
Overall, should feel like an awesome winter after the last several duds.
Should have several good storms to track, but January might be boring.
These are my thoughts, and it will be funny if somebody reposts when you guys have the snowiest January on record.
Oh, and not feeling any ice storms this year. Some sleet or a wintry mix on the front side of a storm sure, but not a full zr event.
Take it first what it's worth, so very little...
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Oct 12, 2018 13:50:45 GMT -6
Since Beaker got us going on predictions I'll throw mine out... Mine is mostly based on not living there any longer... I expect the metro to see a nice winter since my last three there sucked lol. I'm going with 20 inches at lambert (closer to 25 inches in the suburbs). Up in Chicago, I'm going with 30 inches, so it could be a good race between us. I think winter will finally start early for STL with a winter storm warning in the first two weeks of December (December 12th is sticking out for no particular reason). Then the clipper train sets in for those further north like me. Fast forward to February and you guys get another major snow (6-10 inches). February is usually a big month for snow in St. Louis and I like the bookended season this year. Also, not expecting the extreme cold from last year for you guys (no -10 to -20 degree days like last winter). Overall, should feel like an awesome winter after the last several duds. Should have several good storms to track, but January might be boring. These are my thoughts, and it will be funny if somebody reposts when you guys have the snowiest January on record. Oh, and not feeling any ice storms this year. Some sleet or a wintry mix on the front side of a storm sure, but not a full zr event. Take it first what it's worth, so very little... You know since you moved away St. Louis will finally get slammed with another January 14’ type storm while Chicago gets a snow drought  In all reality we will probably be praying for a system that brings more than a heavy dusting while Chicago gets slammed by clippers and blizzards |
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