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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 7, 2018 22:15:33 GMT -6
Looks like 00z ggem just missed the phase and 00z gfs is going to be strong.
Glad to see the storm remains. Somebody is in for a big time winter event.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 7, 2018 22:26:22 GMT -6
The lead wave that comes out before the main storm will be crucial. Its strength, timing, and position will set the stage (ex: drawing cold air down) or end the game before it begins.
I'll put Sunday night as the crucial model suite to see if we have something. As long as the models keep pumping out a storm for now, all is good.
Also, 00z gfs seems way too far north with the surface low considering the 500mb vort track.
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Post by bdgwx on Dec 7, 2018 22:34:32 GMT -6
The changes on the GFS from the 0Z run vs. the 18Z and 12Z runs are huge starting at hour 72. That pocket of energy that I said induces cyclogenesis in advance of the storm of interest actually breaks off from the flow over California and no longer induces cyclogenesis. As a result the scrubbing out of the moisture ahead of the storm of interest is now no long as much of a concern. In fact, the evolution actually drags in some of that El Nino enhanced moisture from the Pacific, albeit only a little bit at this point. These changes also lead to a more potent storm overall.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 7, 2018 22:39:17 GMT -6
The 500 vort track and evolution looks really good on the 00z GFS. The system needs to bomb out alittle further east for us so the warm air dosent pool as much in front of the system. There’s enough cold air there to give someone a good storm
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 7, 2018 22:46:31 GMT -6
Wake me up on Wednesday, when we *might* know what will happen.
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Post by snowjunky on Dec 8, 2018 3:10:33 GMT -6
I’ll take singing in the rain for $200.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Dec 8, 2018 5:31:13 GMT -6
almost all rain.
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giarC71
Wishcaster
Posts: 220 
Snowfall Events: Blizzard of'82 I became addicted to weather
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Post by giarC71 on Dec 8, 2018 6:12:42 GMT -6
We have 6+ inches of snow so far this season and we will have complainers. #&@_#@_@_@'@ I want a Flipping Big Snow!
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Post by STGOutdoors on Dec 8, 2018 6:26:46 GMT -6
Yea overall weaker system means it can't get that cold wrapped in. May see it reintensify in future runs but probably not. Realistically we need to let the cold rebuild in the source region and get those teleconnections favorable again. Strongly positive EPO is no good. We had a nice start...now things gotta reset so we can have fun in Jan and Feb.
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giarC71
Wishcaster
Posts: 220
Snowfall Events: Blizzard of'82 I became addicted to weather
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Post by giarC71 on Dec 8, 2018 6:50:23 GMT -6
It wouldn't surprise me that our winter will be over as for as major snow.
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Post by mosue56 on Dec 8, 2018 8:32:47 GMT -6
I haven’t gotten 6 inches in Festus! Maybe 3 in early November but the rest of the systems have been snowglobe!
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Dec 8, 2018 8:51:28 GMT -6
It wouldn't surprise me that our winter will be over as for as major snow. there have been winters in the past that this has happened or bookend winters so to speak with a final snow in march. there cld be signs that the next cold air spills on the other side of the globe, but i really think we are in line for a cold and stormy pattern starting near the holidays and continuing for several weeks. it seems like when we hv an active november, the winter overall ends up with higher snow totals in more cases than not. im not interested in this weekend because its not an ideal setup imo. |
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Post by jmg378s on Dec 8, 2018 8:52:35 GMT -6
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Dec 8, 2018 10:14:42 GMT -6
00z gfs looks better for next week! Lol
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Dec 8, 2018 10:16:18 GMT -6
00z gfs looks better for next week! Lol Edit- i mean 12z gfs |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Dec 8, 2018 10:48:53 GMT -6
Yeah 12z GFS is a dream. I figured tye blog would have lit up over that one.
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Post by ajd446 on Dec 8, 2018 10:49:09 GMT -6
Gem is a cutter to the west. I like where we sit if you average them out.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 8, 2018 10:59:29 GMT -6
I’m waiting to see the euro before passing judgement on the GFS. Great run though
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 8, 2018 11:04:18 GMT -6
That's a thing of beauty on the GFS!
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Post by maddogchief on Dec 8, 2018 11:10:03 GMT -6
NWS LSX keeps hope alive but ILX has written it off. Should be an interesting week to say the least.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Dec 8, 2018 11:13:43 GMT -6
Too much energy to write it off..especially now that we are into mid december. More rain than snow still seems likely. But.... I think there is some potwntial for a decent wet snow.
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 8, 2018 11:16:51 GMT -6
I'll reserve judgment until Wednesday
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Post by Chris Higgins on Dec 8, 2018 11:19:00 GMT -6
I'll reserve judgment until Wednesday Which is what we should always do anyway. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 8, 2018 11:20:59 GMT -6
The 12z GEFS shows the trough going negative at the right time for us. This is no doubt going to start as rain, but some of our best snows around here start as rain
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Dec 8, 2018 11:29:03 GMT -6
I'll reserve judgment until Wednesday No, we need your input with each and everyone model run! We must have more input!!! |
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Post by rb1108 on Dec 8, 2018 11:39:40 GMT -6
I would give up this storm if it meant we could have a Xmas snowstorm instead. I won't be greedy weather gods, just give me my Xmas snow.
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Post by bdgwx on Dec 8, 2018 12:07:20 GMT -6
FV3 looks real nice too. I'd like to see those 850mb temps a bit lower though.
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Post by bdgwx on Dec 8, 2018 12:14:44 GMT -6
12Z UKMET is playing ball too.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Dec 8, 2018 12:15:12 GMT -6
Gfs much more efficient at pulling the cold air in. Given the seasonal trend and time of year this seems very doable.
I'd love to see temps crash from 50 down into the 30's with a transition to very heavy wet snow. Hope this happens.
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Post by bdgwx on Dec 8, 2018 12:24:05 GMT -6
The COD site is acting weird. I'm trying to click on FV3 soundings and it's showing me 850mb temperatures that are WAY lower on the sounding than what the charts and ptype are showing. I'm not sure what's going on there, but it's pretty annoying.
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