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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 8, 2018 12:30:07 GMT -6
The COD site is acting weird. I'm trying to click on FV3 soundings and it's showing me 850mb temperatures that are WAY lower on the sounding than what the charts and ptype are showing. I'm not sure what's going on there, but it's pretty annoying. The COD site had some issues with the FV3 yesterday to. I went to check out the 12z run again yesterday and it was showing a completely different run. The soundings were also completely wrong. Not sure whats going on with it |
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 8, 2018 12:35:20 GMT -6
Euro is pretty far south with everything, and also all rain. I'm shocked.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 8, 2018 12:36:09 GMT -6
Euro really digs the energy for the system late next week. I think it might of dug to much and got cut off
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Post by bdgwx on Dec 8, 2018 12:38:01 GMT -6
The Euro is really far south and really warm. Sounds about right.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 8, 2018 12:41:40 GMT -6
Ya the euro completely cuts off the energy and spins up a massive upper low across the SE
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Post by STGOutdoors on Dec 8, 2018 12:49:28 GMT -6
Euro has been all over with this particular system but it's reputation can't be ignored. So not great news there.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 8, 2018 12:55:06 GMT -6
Euro has been all over with this particular system but it's reputation can't be ignored. So not great news there. Very well could be a fluke run to. The ensembles from last nights euro run showed a near perfect 500 vort track for the area. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Dec 8, 2018 13:05:27 GMT -6
And this is why it's only worth a cursory inspection of the charts this far out...although the variations between the models at 12z are pretty extreme for 6 days out.
The important point to take home for now is there is a sizeable system possible (rain or snow or both) somewhere east of the Rocky Mountains late next week... including our region. We have as much chance as anyone.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Dec 8, 2018 13:06:16 GMT -6
For public forecast purposes yesterday... I went with chilly rain..maybe a storm...ending as some wet snow Friday. No reason to stray from that at this point.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 8, 2018 13:38:57 GMT -6
Operational runs aren't of much use right now outside of gawking at jackpot runs...
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Post by landscaper on Dec 8, 2018 13:44:46 GMT -6
I agree 6 days away , look at what the models did all last week. Even the models that do show snow for our area are hit and miss every other run . Nothing is remotely consistent including the Euro . We have a long time and several model runs before we can figure out what will happen
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 8, 2018 14:07:23 GMT -6
Not a whole lot of consensus with the euro ensembles, but the mean surface low track is still a Memphis low
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Dec 8, 2018 15:16:33 GMT -6
CFS looking quite snowy for Xmas/New Years period.
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Post by rb1108 on Dec 8, 2018 15:39:24 GMT -6
CFS looking quite snowy for Xmas/New Years period. It showed a major torch for the same period a day or two ago... |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Dec 8, 2018 15:42:23 GMT -6
Gfs much more efficient at pulling the cold air in. Given the seasonal trend and time of year this seems very doable. I'd love to see temps crash from 50 down into the 30's with a transition to very heavy wet snow. Hope this happens. It's because the GFS is showing a miracle Threading the needle is hard enough without phasing pieces of energy moving at light speed. I hope it happens but I would say rain to cold is most likely. The cold pool is so weak enhanced snow showers after the system passes isn't even likely. The amount of vorticity is incredible tho |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 8, 2018 16:08:38 GMT -6
If the storm comes out looking anything like some of these solutions, there will almost surely be heavy snow on the backside with strong dynamic lift. A rain to cold scenario would come from the low tracking over us...but not from a deepening cyclone to the SE.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Dec 8, 2018 16:31:41 GMT -6
18Z GFS is dreadful, another dive south and a miss with only some rain for the far southern counties.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 8, 2018 16:42:47 GMT -6
18Z GFS is dreadful, another dive south and a miss with only some rain for the far southern counties. Meanwhile, the EPS mean is waaaaaay further N than the operational EC. Models don't have a good handle yet at all, which isn't surprising after this last performance. |
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Post by jmg378s on Dec 8, 2018 17:24:20 GMT -6
Yep that's good point, despite the mild temps indicated in modeling, a strong cyclone is likely to cool the column just enough for snow on the northwest flank for someone somewhere where vertical motion is strong and precip is heaviest. Actually, I don't know, but I think it would be less common for a strong cyclone not to produce snow on the backside at our latitude even with marginal temps in the winter months, though I'm sure there are examples.
So yes, of course there is a lot of ways for the weather to unfold towards the end of next week and most of them are unnoteworthy, but I do enjoy watching weather patterns where seemly every shortwave that comes through is rolling up into storm. Somewhat refreshing compared to the last several years even if end result isn't satisfying.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 8, 2018 19:21:50 GMT -6
Yep that's good point, despite the mild temps indicated in modeling, a strong cyclone is likely to cool the column just enough for snow on the northwest flank for someone somewhere where vertical motion is strong and precip is heaviest. Actually, I don't know, but I think it would be less common for a strong cyclone not to produce snow on the backside at our latitude even with marginal temps in the winter months, though I'm sure there are examples. So yes, of course there is a lot of ways for the weather to unfold towards the end of next week and most of them are unnoteworthy, but I do enjoy watching weather patterns where seemly every shortwave that comes through is rolling up into storm. Somewhat refreshing compared to the last several years even if end result isn't satisfying. We saw one or two rainy deformations during the past few "non-winters"...but this year is much different. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Dec 8, 2018 20:31:59 GMT -6
Yep that's good point, despite the mild temps indicated in modeling, a strong cyclone is likely to cool the column just enough for snow on the northwest flank for someone somewhere where vertical motion is strong and precip is heaviest. Actually, I don't know, but I think it would be less common for a strong cyclone not to produce snow on the backside at our latitude even with marginal temps in the winter months, though I'm sure there are examples. So yes, of course there is a lot of ways for the weather to unfold towards the end of next week and most of them are unnoteworthy, but I do enjoy watching weather patterns where seemly every shortwave that comes through is rolling up into storm. Somewhat refreshing compared to the last several years even if end result isn't satisfying. We saw one or two rainy deformations during the past few "non-winters"...but this year is much different. "Rainy deformation zone" might be the most depressing event in all of weather forecasting. |
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Dec 8, 2018 20:58:04 GMT -6
This time of year and after all this cold weather that would really stink...if it’s going to be all rain I hope it does go south
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Post by guyfromhecker on Dec 8, 2018 20:59:34 GMT -6
We saw one or two rainy deformations during the past few "non-winters"...but this year is much different. "Rainy deformation zone" might be the most depressing event in all of weather forecasting. Argggggh |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 8, 2018 21:24:54 GMT -6
We saw one or two rainy deformations during the past few "non-winters"...but this year is much different. "Rainy deformation zone" might be the most depressing event in all of weather forecasting. I dunno, a sleet bust is pretty high on the list for me. I hate sleet. It's my least favorite hydrometeor by far. |
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Post by unclesam6 on Dec 8, 2018 22:11:33 GMT -6
For me it's salt shaker flakes.
nothing makes me more depressed than seeing a large swath of snow be eaten up to measly, non-accumulating dandruff falling out of the sky.
at least sleet makes SOUNDS that are kind of cool.
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Post by nascarfan999 on Dec 8, 2018 22:25:05 GMT -6
I'll second the rainy deformation band. For me there is nothing more miserable than a cold rain.
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Post by unclesam6 on Dec 8, 2018 22:25:27 GMT -6
in other news, significant icing event is only getting worse across the bootheel.  Reports of .25" of ice with multiple downed trees/power outages -- Craighead County, AR |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Dec 8, 2018 23:08:42 GMT -6
This system is gonna need to really bomb once it gets to our se in order to generate/tap in to the cold air. If it does that we could be in business.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 9, 2018 0:12:36 GMT -6
This system is gonna need to really bomb once it gets to our se in order to generate/tap in to the cold air. If it does that we could be in business. Potential is definitely there for this thing to really bomb. The energy associated with it is pretty incredible |
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Dec 9, 2018 0:32:05 GMT -6
00z Euro??
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