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Post by STGOutdoors on Dec 9, 2018 22:07:37 GMT -6
Euro wins again inside the 5/6 day mark. Chalk another one up and keep it fresh in your minds going forward.
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Dec 9, 2018 22:16:15 GMT -6
Just for fun. Anybody see the 18z FV3-GFS hr 384 Christmas eve mega storm. Lol
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 9, 2018 22:56:31 GMT -6
Euro wins again inside the 5/6 day mark. Chalk another one up and keep it fresh in your minds going forward. I am firmly in the euro camp this year...but I did just peek at the 00z ggem and it is as close to perfect as you can get with this thread the needle scenario. Maybe, just maybe the euro will tilt that way tonight. Not holding my breath though. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 9, 2018 23:07:38 GMT -6
Also, FV3-gfs looks a lot closer to the 00z ggem.
I predict the 00z euro is going to give us a little hope for backside wet snow late in the week.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 10, 2018 0:24:56 GMT -6
00z euro looks like it is staying the course with little to no phasing...
It was a low percentage thing from the beginning. I'll call it game over at this range and the euro being in the bad outcome camp.
Good news is that SSE is still going to happen which should mean the cold comes back by the last days of December and a good portion of January.
We should have fun times ahead.
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 10, 2018 5:51:33 GMT -6
Looks to be rather boring for a couple weeks. Perhaps Christmas week it'll perk up some.
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Post by Tilawn on Dec 10, 2018 6:26:58 GMT -6
Heavy Jack Frost this morning with a balmy 13* at the homestead. Looks like I’ll be able to get some work done before Christmas with they way the extended looks.
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Dec 10, 2018 7:22:36 GMT -6
Pretty crazy snow gradients with the storm in the Carolina’s.... Saluda NC had 18.5 inches, my brother lives about 12 miles south and had 9.5 inches, my mother lives about 20 miles south of him and had around 4 inches..... you go another 10 miles south and they had all rain.... elevation played a huge role in this storm
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gonefishin - WashMO
Junior Forecaster
Washington, Franklin County, MO
Posts: 491 
Snowfall Events: 2013-2014: A lot!
2014-2015: If you forecast it, it will come!
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Post by gonefishin - WashMO on Dec 10, 2018 7:46:16 GMT -6
Heavy Jack Frost this morning with a balmy 13* at the homestead. Looks like I’ll be able to get some work done before Christmas with they way the extended looks. Anyone I know? 😜 |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Dec 10, 2018 8:03:33 GMT -6
for those of you who like cold temps for Christmas, gfs has been pretty consistent with a pattern change to cold temps right around Christmas. fantasy range but does bear out what many have been saying on here. overall pattern suggests colder temps coming in abt then. not sure if a storm cld delay the onset of cold temps by a day or two or if the big ole high pressure just scoots on down to the MS valley and the cold air reaches us a day or two sooner.
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Post by Tilawn on Dec 10, 2018 8:16:37 GMT -6
Heavy Jack Frost this morning with a balmy 13* at the homestead. Looks like I’ll be able to get some work done before Christmas with they way the extended looks. Anyone I know? 😜 Maybe.....😊 |
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Post by maddogchief on Dec 10, 2018 8:25:50 GMT -6
for those of you who like cold temps for Christmas, gfs has been pretty consistent with a pattern change to cold temps right around Christmas. fantasy range but does bear out what many have been saying on here. overall pattern suggests colder temps coming in abt then. not sure if a storm cld delay the onset of cold temps by a day or two or if the big ole high pressure just scoots on down to the MS valley and the cold air reaches us a day or two sooner. The nice part is it has support by other globals and has done well with the broad stroke trends. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 10, 2018 9:51:24 GMT -6
The spread in the EPS members after h96 is pretty crazy...and the GEFS mean is much closer to the GEM. So, long story short...models still don't have a good handle on the next storm.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Dec 10, 2018 10:01:05 GMT -6
Now I've seen some wasted deformation zones in my day, but this one takes the cake by a long shot...especially given the time of year. The ghosts of winters past are still here to haunt us a bit longer.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 10, 2018 10:05:02 GMT -6
Now I've seen some wasted deformation zones in my day, but this one takes the cake by a long shot...especially given the time of year. The ghosts of winters past are still here to haunt us a bit longer. I'm not so sure, I still think there's a chance it could deepen and pivot NE with at least a partial phase...GEM still has it but it's not got a lot of support. The spread that develops in the ensemble forecasts shows that models are still struggling...so lots of outcomes are still possible. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Dec 10, 2018 10:21:18 GMT -6
Yeah. The spread in the ensembles at 4 days out is pretty remarkable...which in some regards makes the ensemble means only so useful. It means the intensity is being watered down... and you are averaging some really far apart tracks. I'm just staying the same path I charted late last week... cold rain...maybe ending as wet snow Friday morning.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Dec 10, 2018 10:57:02 GMT -6
I wouldn't at all mind a brief warm up. Funny thing is our warm ups this winter look like they're gonna be 40's maybe 50's instead of the 60's+ we've seen the last few years. Just shows how different this is.
Teleconnections continue to look better and better with the NAO dropping into negative territory and now the EPO plummeting from a very high value toward negative territory as we approach the holidays. I think fun times are ahead for sure. Cold is rebuilding nicely in Alaska and western Canada. This should release once the EPO drops out.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 10, 2018 11:21:22 GMT -6
I wouldn't at all mind a brief warm up. Funny thing is our warm ups this winter look like they're gonna be 40's maybe 50's instead of the 60's+ we've seen the last few years. Just shows how different this is. Teleconnections continue to look better and better with the NAO dropping into negative territory and now the EPO plummeting from a very high value toward negative territory as we approach the holidays. I think fun times are ahead for sure. Cold is rebuilding nicely in Alaska and western Canada. This should release once the EPO drops out. Usually when the EPO switches phase it's followed by a colder and active pattern. Hopefully that forecast holds. The potential strat warming event is encouraging too...both good timing for the holiday season. |
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Post by jmg378s on Dec 10, 2018 14:42:15 GMT -6
Too warm for snow on the Euro, but it has a lot a rain south I-44 by the end of the weekend.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 10, 2018 14:54:09 GMT -6
GEM is still cranking out a beauty...would like to see more support though.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Dec 10, 2018 15:04:16 GMT -6
Too warm for snow on the Euro, but it has a lot a rain south I-44 by the end of the weekend. It is notably further north... but so wrapped up that it completely cuts off any hope of cold air. Its 850 temps are 4-6c...with no 0c line anywhere nearby. Not an unlikey scenario considering how far south it takes the 500mb low. Not going to get any help from cold air aloft in that setup. The GEM is warmer... but still cold enough...and probably too cold. Still...with such a spread.. I intend to keep rain possibly ending as brief period of wet snow.. |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Dec 10, 2018 15:09:41 GMT -6
This is the kind of system that pivots through here in March and we say "man...if it were only Dec.-Feb. right now!" Bummer to waste such a setup.
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Post by maddogchief on Dec 10, 2018 15:47:33 GMT -6
Man, this thing is still all over the place.
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Post by bdgwx on Dec 10, 2018 15:52:40 GMT -6
And once again both the EPS and GEFS are looking troughy in the extended range.
I realize shortwaves, deep troughs, or cutoff lows only lead to snowy scenarios for us a small percentage of the time, but if Mother Nature throws the darts enough times one is bound to stick...eventually...I think...maybe?
I do think a Memphis low where it's too warm is a particularly cruel way of screwing us out of snow though.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Dec 10, 2018 16:00:54 GMT -6
Most models (including ICON which has actually done quite well) have trended cooler with some accumulating snow now showing up on the very back edge of the def. zone somewhere from TX to MO. I don't think it has the potential to trend any cooler though unfortunately.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 10, 2018 16:30:16 GMT -6
18z GFS has a shot of arctic air coming in about 24 hours to late behind the late week system. So close but not close enough
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 10, 2018 16:48:49 GMT -6
The FV3 looks somewhat similar to the GEM in trying to partially phase the storm and lifting it NE but it's slower to do so. We definitely want the mid-level cold core to track nearly overhead...just to the S/SE...or the storm will not be able to produce it's own cold air. We also want to see a negatively tilted, deepening cyclone which is what the GEM and quite a few of the ensemble members are showing. But there's more support against that scenario than for it...so for right now, it's a longshot but still on the table.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 10, 2018 16:49:56 GMT -6
18z GFS has a shot of arctic air coming in about 24 hours to late behind the late week system. So close but not close enough I'd say as a whole, there is increasing support...or at least a short term trend...of more interaction with the N branch. But still not enough. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 10, 2018 16:54:51 GMT -6
We really need that circled piece of northern energy to get involved with the big cutoff low. Thats going to break off a piece of arctic air which we need to dive into the backside of the system. Probably very unlikely to happen, just sucks how close it is  |
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Post by ajd446 on Dec 10, 2018 17:39:55 GMT -6
I am also amazed that I have had frost consistently on the north side of my roof since Friday
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