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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Dec 10, 2018 18:15:57 GMT -6
I am also amazed that I have had frost consistently on the north side of my roof since Friday I don't know if it's still there after we hit 40 this afternoon. But at noon I was surprised there was still a little speckling of snow on the north facing slope in my back yard from that spit of snow we got on Wednesday/Thursday. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Dec 10, 2018 18:18:36 GMT -6
Have a look at Pah radar and hopkinsville. They are pinging an enourmous flock of geese...clearly in V formation...flying south. I dont think I have ever seen something that big before. I postes loop on my FB page.
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Post by RyanD on Dec 10, 2018 18:29:30 GMT -6
I see it just south of Evansville. That's a huge flock.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 10, 2018 18:48:50 GMT -6
Have a look at Pah radar and hopkinsville. They are pinging an enourmous flock of geese...clearly in V formation...flying south. I dont think I have ever seen something that big before. I postes loop on my FB page. Almost surely snow geese...that's a big time staging area for migrating waterfowl. I shot a wood duck that was banded near Paducah last year. |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Dec 10, 2018 18:51:47 GMT -6
I saw the strangest thing this deer season (middle of nov). About 10 snow geese were flying really low and went within about 100 yards of me. I've seen them before but always in massive numbers and flying very high. Was cool to hear and see them so close.
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Post by Tilawn on Dec 10, 2018 18:59:34 GMT -6
I am also amazed that I have had frost consistently on the north side of my roof since Friday I don't know if it's still there after we hit 40 this afternoon. But at noon I was surprised there was still a little speckling of snow on the north facing slope in my back yard from that spit of snow we got on Wednesday/Thursday. I was on a leaf removal job this afternoon and there was still frost on the north side of the house at 2:30. I actually still have 2” of snow on my north facing rooftops at the house/shop. |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Dec 10, 2018 20:27:46 GMT -6
oh i have ice on my deck north side of the house.
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Post by mchafin on Dec 10, 2018 22:03:34 GMT -6
oh i have ice on my deck north side of the house. Yup - still have ice / snow on my north-facing deck! |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 10, 2018 23:36:23 GMT -6
GEM is sticking to it's guns and showing darn near a blizzard here while the GFS trends towards the EURO and is much warmer. Guess we'll see...
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Dec 11, 2018 6:05:19 GMT -6
If only we were closer to Christmas. The 06z gfs has a nice storm around then. Ugh.....
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 11, 2018 6:06:51 GMT -6
The next 10 days or so are major "meh" weather. Mild and boring. 2 inches of rain late this week does little to excite me.
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Post by ajd446 on Dec 11, 2018 6:33:46 GMT -6
Honestly I am loving this break I warm weather if we got 2 warm weeks every 4 weeks I would love it so I can get stuff done
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Dec 11, 2018 6:51:20 GMT -6
Honestly I am loving this break I warm weather if we got 2 warm weeks every 4 weeks I would love it so I can get stuff done I could use some 2 weeks of straight out sunny weather and temps in the 50s/60s so I can finally get my leaves up but they have to be dry so they can mulch better and get up off the curb as they won't be such a matted up mess.
If Thursday's system misses entirely, I won't be too upset.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Dec 11, 2018 7:40:49 GMT -6
the main takeaway around Christmas is a pattern that reverts to more winterlike for that period. now, if it snows thats anybodys guess, but there seems to be consistency on colder wx sometime around Christmas. hopefully those op models arent basing it on climatology but instead something real. i know a couple days ago there was twlwconnection support.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Dec 11, 2018 7:58:04 GMT -6
I don't know if it's still there after we hit 40 this afternoon. But at noon I was surprised there was still a little speckling of snow on the north facing slope in my back yard from that spit of snow we got on Wednesday/Thursday. I was on a leaf removal job this afternoon and there was still frost on the north side of the house at 2:30. I actually still have 2” of snow on my north facing rooftops at the house/shop. Still have a speckling of snow on that north slope this morning. Impressive since we only got a few tenths of snow in the first place. |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Dec 11, 2018 8:00:03 GMT -6
Have a look at Pah radar and hopkinsville. They are pinging an enourmous flock of geese...clearly in V formation...flying south. I dont think I have ever seen something that big before. I postes loop on my FB page. Almost surely snow geese...that's a big time staging area for migrating waterfowl. I shot a wood duck that was banded near Paducah last year. Am I thinking of a different species or, considering we're 1/3 the way through December, is this a bit late for the geese to still be migrating south? I thought they were usually done with all that before Thanksgiving...unless their instincts tell them to move further south. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 11, 2018 8:37:50 GMT -6
Almost surely snow geese...that's a big time staging area for migrating waterfowl. I shot a wood duck that was banded near Paducah last year. Am I thinking of a different species or, considering we're 1/3 the way through December, is this a bit late for the geese to still be migrating south? I thought they were usually done with all that before Thanksgiving...unless their instincts tell them to move further south. I would say the bulk of them have come through, but there is always groups of stragglers that stay further N. Some may never even make it S of here some years if there's open water and little snowcover. Geese are hardy birds...especially canadas. |
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Post by mosue56 on Dec 11, 2018 9:05:08 GMT -6
We have a group of Canadian geese that hang around our lake and whatever other open water they find during winter! Our 60 acre lake hardly ever freezes over! And we are warmer obviously than up north! So why should they leave? We deal with summer half the year, it’s nice to have a cold break!
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Post by ElKay23 - Columbia, IL on Dec 11, 2018 9:24:04 GMT -6
  Had to look up chaff. Huh? |
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Post by cardsnweather on Dec 11, 2018 9:28:25 GMT -6
The only time it is ever okay to mention Hours 300+ on the GFS is if it has a storm on Christmas Eve or Christmas.... In this case, it does. All is well.
That would be a Christmas miracle. T-minus 14 days.
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Post by rb1108 on Dec 11, 2018 9:33:51 GMT -6
The only time it is ever okay to mention Hours 300+ on the GFS is if it has a storm on Christmas Eve or Christmas.... In this case, it does. All is well. That would be a Christmas miracle. T-minus 14 days. It is the Dave Murray White Xmas snowstorm. He knew it was a comin' |
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Post by cardsnweather on Dec 11, 2018 10:55:17 GMT -6
GEM still showing backside blizzard.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Dec 11, 2018 10:58:11 GMT -6
GEM still showing backside blizzard. Interesting, but no way it pulls of a coup like that. |
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Post by guyfromhecker on Dec 11, 2018 11:06:49 GMT -6
GEM still showing backside blizzard. Where? I noticed the WPC has a secondary low. It drops down into Arkansas by Thursday evening |
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Post by unclesam6 on Dec 11, 2018 11:12:33 GMT -6
IIRC the gem was showing last weekend's storm until abt 2 or so days out then it quickly scurried south
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 11, 2018 11:16:34 GMT -6
Yeah, only having the GEM on your side isn't good odds...especially considering it's cold bias. But it's been awfully consistent. Wait and see.
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Post by guyfromhecker on Dec 11, 2018 11:19:14 GMT -6
I have to assume the lead low will have a front associated with it. Is it a Pacific front?
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Dec 11, 2018 12:00:42 GMT -6
who is doing that study on model verification and how is that working out?
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Post by ElburnDave on Dec 11, 2018 12:40:56 GMT -6
Am I thinking of a different species or, considering we're 1/3 the way through December, is this a bit late for the geese to still be migrating south? I thought they were usually done with all that before Thanksgiving...unless their instincts tell them to move further south. I would say the bulk of them have come through, but there is always groups of stragglers that stay further N. Some may never even make it S of here some years if there's open water and little snowcover. Geese are hardy birds...especially canadas. Lots of Canadas still up in this area. (Not sure of their nationality  ). I think a lot of them are resident geese that only migrate when the snow gets too deep. They hang out on frozen ponds and in corn fields. |
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Post by bdgwx on Dec 11, 2018 13:03:49 GMT -6
who is doing that study on model verification and how is that working out?
GFS 12Z 48 - 72: 3.0"
GFS 12Z 72 - 96: 3.2"
GFS 12Z 96 - 120: 2.0"
GFS 12Z 120 - 144: 4.4"
GFS 12Z 144 - 168: 8.8"
GFS 12Z 168 - 192: 1.2"
GFS 12Z 192 - 216: 5.3"
GFS 12Z 216 - 240: 2.7"
Observed at STL: 6.9"
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). I think a lot of them are resident geese that only migrate when the snow gets too deep. They hang out on frozen ponds and in corn fields.