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Post by bellevillewxguy on Dec 5, 2018 20:17:25 GMT -6
NCEP his having Dataflow aka server issues and maintenance so 0Z model suite will likely be very slow if not almost non-existent until tomorrow. Most likely just significantly delayed by up to a couple hours.
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Post by ajd446 on Dec 5, 2018 20:35:22 GMT -6
Data flow issues are because the models are looking at the current pattern and going nope it's time for a vacation I ain't even gonna try
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Dec 5, 2018 20:50:20 GMT -6
Data flow issues are because the models are looking at the current pattern and going nope it's time for a vacation I ain't even gonna try Even Supercomputers need a break every now and then...  |
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Post by ajd446 on Dec 5, 2018 20:54:12 GMT -6
All honesty what ever happens with the snow over the next 10 days whatever really. We have had one of the most amazing starts to winter In my opinion with much of the metro already seeing 7 to 12 inches of snow this year. So honestly if we don't get accumulation until Christmas or even January oh well. It has been a amazing start
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Dec 5, 2018 20:54:37 GMT -6
NAM finally out to 48 hours. Looks like areas south of I-70 won't see much tomorrow if anything with a few hundredths of an inch as the band basically falls apart as it heads south also a hair warmer so it's mostly rain south of 70 with a stray flurry at the tail end. HRRR/RAP pretty much on the same page as the NAM as well. Now the focus turns to what to do with the Weekend system.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Dec 5, 2018 20:57:28 GMT -6
NAM looks like it's gonna be considerably more north is run. Still too early in the run to tell but it's approaching latitude seems more north.
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Post by perryville on Dec 5, 2018 21:01:32 GMT -6
I've seen these systems all to often. The dry air monster eats up the northern edge. While I'm still holding on to hope I feel this is going to play out exactly as Chris mentioned. Perryville & Chester and points south. I can think of a few huge storms similar to this. The Xmas Eve blizzard from 5 or so years ago that nailed Perryville over to Marion and I didn't even get a dusting. Also the December storm from 2003 I believe that nailed similar places. If I remember correctly, the December 2003 storm had 3-4” in Perryville and 8-10” Cape Girardeau and southward. One of the craziest gradients I’ve seen for all snow in our area. I will take that  |
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Post by snowday_lover on Dec 5, 2018 21:03:52 GMT -6
NAM finally out to 48 hours. Looks like areas south of I-70 won't see much tomorrow if anything with a few hundredths of an inch as the band basically falls apart as it heads south also a hair warmer so it's mostly rain south of 70 with a stray flurry at the tail end. HRRR/RAP pretty much on the same page as the NAM as well. Now the focus turns to what to do with the Weekend system. Par for the course down here in no-man’s land. Really hoping for some actual accumulating snow so we can start catching up with everyone else. |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Dec 5, 2018 21:08:47 GMT -6
NAM now up to 63 hours now and its actually ejecting a tad south from 18Z but slightly north of 12Z so inbetween both runs. Perhaps more interesting is that it's ejecting a tad slower 1-3 hours which could have implications.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 5, 2018 21:08:55 GMT -6
NAM looks like it's gonna be considerably more north is run. Still too early in the run to tell but it's approaching latitude seems more north. That 1040 high entering northeastern Missouri is going to be an issue... |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Dec 5, 2018 21:12:34 GMT -6
It speeds up to 75 hours still slightly south so it's another Meh run looking just the Upper Levels alone. (By speed up I mean it ends up coming through about 3 hours faster then previous runs as it prepares to 'pivot' and push through.)
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Dec 5, 2018 21:15:57 GMT -6
Clipper system is slower and doesn't look to interact with it at all or at least too little too late to matter for us.
Actually precip teases the far southern counties but looks light >1" type stuff. Saturday night into Sunday.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 5, 2018 21:18:09 GMT -6
If you want good news, the holiday season still has a good chance of being quite wintry.
Latest guidance continues to show a sudden stratospheric warming event. It's not guaranteed, but if you want an awesome winter gambling on this event and its timing would be the way to go.
Also still think next week at this time we will at least have a rapidly intensifying low in the region. Could be fun even without a ton of wintry precipitation.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Dec 5, 2018 21:18:57 GMT -6
Yea I'm about to throw it in. Tired of watching each model run disappoint. I'll give it til Thursday still.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Dec 5, 2018 21:19:19 GMT -6
Dry Air Monster gonna be a beast though. So probably just cold and cloudy in reality.
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Post by guyfromhecker on Dec 5, 2018 21:22:10 GMT -6
Zzzzzzzzzz
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Dec 5, 2018 21:32:10 GMT -6
Meh...😎
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Post by STGOutdoors on Dec 5, 2018 21:34:12 GMT -6
This system is gonna turn me into 99 real quick.
The reason this one sucks is because it's so close. To see something come together in SW MO then squash!
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Dec 5, 2018 21:34:17 GMT -6
Tommorow is going to be pretty awesome for a few hours.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Dec 5, 2018 21:37:29 GMT -6
With all due respect sir I'm tired of awesome for a few hours. I want a good old fashioned snowstorm where it snows all day and you end up with 6-8 inches or more. It's been years.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Dec 5, 2018 21:40:48 GMT -6
With all due respect sir I'm tired of awesome for a few hours. I want a good old fashioned snowstorm where it snows all day and you end up with 6-8 inches or more. It's been years. We'll we have years where it snows like 5 times. Like 5 days with flakes total. So personally I'm pretty happy with how things have gone so far. |
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Dec 5, 2018 21:42:54 GMT -6
With all due respect sir I'm tired of awesome for a few hours. I want a good old fashioned snowstorm where it snows all day and you end up with 6-8 inches or more. It's been years. What drives me crazy is when we are in the sweet spot down here it always goes north but when the snow is south it never comes north....3 years without a 4 inch snow .....my patience are running thin lol |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Dec 5, 2018 21:47:16 GMT -6
Looks like the GFS is heading more north. QPF as well.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Dec 5, 2018 21:50:51 GMT -6
The blues are so awful.
Absolutely no intestinal fortitude.
Id love to be lecturing that room.
Id tell the guys I'm going to take a nap. Come get me when your balls drop.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 5, 2018 21:56:31 GMT -6
Looks like the GFS is heading more north. QPF as well. Identical to 00z yesterday... |
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Post by TK on Dec 5, 2018 21:56:41 GMT -6
The blues are so awful. Absolutely no intestinal fortitude. Id love to be lecturing that room. Id tell the guys I'm going to take a nap. Come get me when your balls drop. Why is O'Reily the only one who plays with passion? |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Dec 5, 2018 22:12:06 GMT -6
The blues are so awful. Absolutely no intestinal fortitude. Id love to be lecturing that room. Id tell the guys I'm going to take a nap. Come get me when your balls drop. Why is O'Reily the only one who plays with passion? Yea, it's infuriating. That dude is a badass hockey player. I don't understand how an entire team looks so half ! BACKSIDE ! every single night. It's gotta be a leadership and coaching issue because there is talent there. Tarasenko for some reason has lost his shot. That or the rest of the league has figured it out. Schenn plays with some heart too but the rest of the team is starting to rub off on him too. Shame. |
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Dec 5, 2018 22:13:48 GMT -6
My Mom who lives in South Carolina has a point forecast from the NWS for 10 inches of snow lol last year she had a 7 inch snow...I’m a tad bit jealous
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Post by landscaper on Dec 5, 2018 22:14:35 GMT -6
It’s officially time to toss the !Drying Cloth!, not looking good for the home team. I doubt anyone in our areas sees any snow this weekend.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Dec 5, 2018 22:15:08 GMT -6
Gem has abandoned me and caved to the gfs.
I guess I'll hop in the truck and head to Sikeston Sunday if I want to see some snow lol.
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