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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 5, 2018 22:21:04 GMT -6
Its looking more and more unlikely the WAA precep will affect the area except maybe the extreme southern parts of the CWA. Im still keeping tabs on the upper low and clipper though
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 5, 2018 22:27:47 GMT -6
NAM finally out to 48 hours. Looks like areas south of I-70 won't see much tomorrow if anything with a few hundredths of an inch as the band basically falls apart as it heads south also a hair warmer so it's mostly rain south of 70 with a stray flurry at the tail end. HRRR/RAP pretty much on the same page as the NAM as well. Now the focus turns to what to do with the Weekend system. With such a shallow surface warm layer (maybe 1k feet) snow will have no problem being the dominate ptype in the northern 2/3rds of the CWA once the best lift moves in |
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Post by unclesam6 on Dec 5, 2018 22:48:42 GMT -6
That EURO has been something this year.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Dec 6, 2018 0:10:11 GMT -6
I just don't see tomorrow being an issue with rain. The warm layer is paper thin and not very warm. That's really cold right off the deck. Best lift intersects the dgz. The entire column is saturated thanks to the cold airmass pressing out the mosture. This is shaping up to the be that surprise thing where we get 75-90 mins of heavy snow bisecting the immediate metro. Big ole wet flakes  |
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 6, 2018 0:30:14 GMT -6
Don't think I see much here in Union tomorrow, what say you Friv?
Also Euro is back even further south again..like it was a couple days ago. Hope AR has fun.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Dec 6, 2018 0:41:29 GMT -6
Don't think I see much here in Union tomorrow, what say you Friv? Also Euro is back even further south again..like it was a couple days ago. Hope AR has fun. Probably the same 75-90 mins of moderate to heavy snow. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 6, 2018 1:18:28 GMT -6
hope you're right, thanks Friv
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Post by Chris Higgins on Dec 6, 2018 1:46:47 GMT -6
I think anything South of the Missouri river and I 64 in Missouri is really iffy… I would not count on much in Union I could see South county getting very little and North county getting an inch for to even within Saint Louis county
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 6, 2018 2:00:26 GMT -6
Thanks Chris. Meh. lol
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Dec 6, 2018 3:03:12 GMT -6
The 06z nam really highlights the issue of dry air.
The models have trended drier for today.
But we'll still see snow.
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 6, 2018 3:28:26 GMT -6
The warm up begins around mid week next week it looks like. I think it'll be relatively mild until close to New Year's. Not a blowtorch, but like others have said, probably 50's, 60's ahead of fronts maybe. When a front does move through it'll probably go back into the upper 30's or 40's for a day or 2. Stratospheric warming even, usually takes a while to have any effect on us, by several weeks. So I wouldn't expect any cold or pattern from that until January. January and Feb could be huge, or could be just cold and dry while the east gets storm after storm after historical storm. OR if the PV breaks up and goes on the other side of the pole it will be warm and gross. Lol.
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Post by Tilawn on Dec 6, 2018 3:41:05 GMT -6
 My zone forecast is now calling for 1-2” today Edit: now has it at around an inch |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 6, 2018 6:11:52 GMT -6
KMKC radar looks good...lift definitely looks to focus along and N of I-70 and an inch or so looks about right. Time of day is in our favor as well as low sun angle...but ground temps are surely running warm too so it's going to have to come down pretty hard to accumulate.
I can see why southerners are getting frustrated for sure...but I wouldn't give up on that storm yet. I'm pretty well writing it off for up here, the ridging and dry air is just too strong. But I am keeping an eye on that clipper behind it.
Just don't forget that we're only a few days into meteorological winter and its been an active start so far...
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 6, 2018 6:40:34 GMT -6
I want some birthday snow today dammit. Gimme gimme gimme.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Dec 6, 2018 6:46:22 GMT -6
KMKC radar looks good...lift definitely looks to focus along and N of I-70 and an inch or so looks about right. Time of day is in our favor as well as low sun angle...but ground temps are surely running warm too so it's going to have to come down pretty hard to accumulate. I can see why southerners are getting frustrated for sure...but I wouldn't give up on that storm yet. I'm pretty well writing it off for up here, the ridging and dry air is just too strong. But I am keeping an eye on that clipper behind it. Just don't forget that we're only a few days into meteorological winter and its been an active start so far... I think it is better for my mental well being if I write it off at this point lol. I've already spent entirely too much time pouring over the models each run. I do need to remember that I've already had 5 inches of snow this winter, which is a very good start. Winter will be taking a vacation soon...let's just hope things reload and we have a fun late Dec - Feb. |
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Post by cardsnweather on Dec 6, 2018 6:47:25 GMT -6
Happy birthday 99.
Radar has that ‘snowy’ look to it for now. I think once it enters southern Madison county in Illinois it starts changing at the start.
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Post by REB on Dec 6, 2018 6:58:22 GMT -6
Happy Birthday 99. Wishing you tons of snow and contentment this year.
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Post by perryville on Dec 6, 2018 7:33:34 GMT -6
The beginning of one of the best winters in my lifetime....  |
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Post by cardsnweather on Dec 6, 2018 7:46:08 GMT -6
NAM looks really good for this morning.
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Post by birddog on Dec 6, 2018 7:59:08 GMT -6
Haven't seen any flakes here yet. Just a light drizzle. 35°.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 6, 2018 8:30:30 GMT -6
NAM looks really good for this morning. Radar looks better than I had expected. Quite a bit of dry air to overcome, but the donut hole is collapsing pretty quickly now. With wetbulbing, this should be nearly all snow for the metro. |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Dec 6, 2018 8:34:22 GMT -6
Chris I like those railfan cams, too. I like the one in Laramie, Wyoming when they are getting weather. I also like the one in Cable west - Tehachapi, CA as a great view of the California desert a little north of Los Angeles.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Dec 6, 2018 8:35:33 GMT -6
NAM looks really good for this morning. for what? |
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Post by landscaper on Dec 6, 2018 8:46:08 GMT -6
Today will likely be the last flakes for awhile
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Dec 6, 2018 8:46:11 GMT -6
HRRR brings a band of heavy precip around 10-1pm through the metro.
It shows all rain.
But Thermo profiles say there is no way the surface won't cool.
The sun angle is extremely low.
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Post by mchafin on Dec 6, 2018 8:50:03 GMT -6
NAM looks really good for this morning. for what? for snow. for today. |
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Post by toddatfarmington on Dec 6, 2018 8:54:39 GMT -6
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Dec 6, 2018 9:01:36 GMT -6
Seeing an occasional flake, but nothing serious yet. Also mixed with a little rain
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Post by birddog on Dec 6, 2018 9:04:43 GMT -6
Still rain here and temp is rising, 38.7°
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Dec 6, 2018 9:07:50 GMT -6
That rain is concerning
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