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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Dec 15, 2018 10:15:31 GMT -6
From the CBC Nunavut: Winter's piling up the snow in Cambridge Bay. They're had blizzard conditions for the last couple of days.. .and it has left a lot of snow. Top photo shows a street sign... .bottom photo shows a loader breaking through the drifts to clear the road. Paula Cziranka sent these... she says some drifts were 12 feet/3.6 metres high!   |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Dec 15, 2018 10:16:09 GMT -6
Gfs continues to tease us for Thursday night. Probably an even closer version of close but no cigar.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Dec 15, 2018 10:36:08 GMT -6
I'll also say I like the way the gfs and gem have cold air seeping in fr the north with some energy perhaps involved as we get to Christmas Eve and Christmas Day. No big signals there yet but that sort of pattern holds potential.
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Post by cozpregon on Dec 15, 2018 10:41:39 GMT -6
Ofallon was where I was. If it was not snow it was dandruff With 850/925 temps well into the 40s- getting some head and shoulders shampoo may be a wise decision |
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Post by dschreib on Dec 15, 2018 10:51:03 GMT -6
I'll say it again... If it's not gonna be snow than I'd prefer mild and dry. I hate this muddy mess this time of the year. Its been a muddy mess since October with way too much rain. And it rains every weekend. It's been a muddy mess at my house since last January. I obviously have worsening drainage issues, also, because my sump pump has been running all year. Literally. All year. When it rains like it has the last couple days, it runs about every 5 minutes. I'm starting to wonder if the pipe is separated where it makes the turn and it's just dumping the water right back down the side of the house. |
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Post by bdgwx on Dec 15, 2018 10:52:37 GMT -6
Both the GFS and EURO are showing a tremendous strat warming event unfolding around D10...I'm pretty sure it's the strongest one I've seen models forecast and would surely have a large impact on the global large-scale pattern and evolution of the PV.  |
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Post by mosue56 on Dec 15, 2018 11:13:13 GMT -6
Rain rain go away come again in 2019!
As snow! If not in the next two weeks! I’m dreaming of a White Christmas!
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Post by mosue56 on Dec 15, 2018 12:17:48 GMT -6
The rain went away, the sun is out as is the wind! The low is saying good bye!
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Dec 15, 2018 12:50:12 GMT -6
The rain went away, the sun is out as is the wind! The low is saying good bye! Sun just came out here in the last 1/2 hour. Good to see it again! |
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Post by guyfromhecker on Dec 15, 2018 13:06:28 GMT -6
Its been a muddy mess since October with way too much rain. And it rains every weekend. It's been a muddy mess at my house since last January. I obviously have worsening drainage issues, also, because my sump pump has been running all year. Literally. All year. When it rains like it has the last couple days, it runs about every 5 minutes. I'm starting to wonder if the pipe is separated where it makes the turn and it's just dumping the water right back down the side of the house. Hmmmmmm |
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Dec 15, 2018 13:11:08 GMT -6
Ya Gfs hints at something right around Christmas or just before everyone other run or so. U can see it on the 12z today.
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Dec 15, 2018 13:12:09 GMT -6
New GFS 12z has a couple of good storms after Christmas. Lol
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Post by fojginmo on Dec 15, 2018 13:38:50 GMT -6
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Post by bdgwx on Dec 15, 2018 14:19:56 GMT -6
I miss the DGEX. I was going through some of my archived images and I found one of it's snow bombs that I'm pretty sure never got posted in this forum. It showed 42" of snow right up I-44 into the metro.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 15, 2018 14:36:50 GMT -6
I miss the DGEX. I was going through some of my archived images and I found one of it's snow bombs that I'm pretty sure never got posted in this forum. It showed 42" of snow right up I-44 into the metro. I believe that was in January or February of 2017. Went from a giant snow to a giant ice storm to a rainer and 34 degrees. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 15, 2018 14:53:24 GMT -6
Both the GFS and EURO are showing a tremendous strat warming event unfolding around D10...I'm pretty sure it's the strongest one I've seen models forecast and would surely have a large impact on the global large-scale pattern and evolution of the PV. Yeah, the 10mb is off the charts with the warming and the core of the warming shifts right over the pole. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 15, 2018 19:11:14 GMT -6
This is an amazing event if it unfolds like the models are forecasting. I've followed these forecasts for quite a while now and I can say that forecast accuracy for the stratosphere is pretty good with these global models, IME. I don't ever remember seeing anything quite like this one...but...it hasn't happened yet either and they aren't always a surefire bet for wintry weather here. We don't want the motherlode of arctic air to drop down on us and suppress everything...and that's already been a trend this season. And there's always a chance that the tropospheric vortex remains intact and doesn't unload the cold air. But this warming is something else, I think I've seen forecasts where 10mb temps reach 0*C over Siberia.  |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 15, 2018 19:15:55 GMT -6
I remember that one time the DGEX got it right...
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Dec 15, 2018 22:05:20 GMT -6
I really suspect we will see a pattern change over the holidays, but obviously the GFS hasn't signaled it yet - GFS portrays same old pacific hose dominating the overall pattern featuring a split flow, with only transitory glancing blows of cold air. That could change in a few days. Other than that, I'm guessing BRTN's stratospheric warming would bring a pattern change in January. That all said, my first hunch at Christmas Day: Mostly sunny with temperatures in the low 40s...not bad. Not too far from climatology.
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Post by bdgwx on Dec 15, 2018 22:17:04 GMT -6
0Z GFS is trending a bit more intense with the system on Thursday. The EPS has been showing this trough since D10. The GEFS had been showing it and then backed off. Obviously it's been shown for the last several runs again. The problem is that modeling has the trough evolution better suited for a storm east of the Mississippi River, temperatures are starting out warm, and we're inside the D5 window where probabilities of big adjustments in our favor are going to start to dwindle. Let's see how this plays out, but I think the best forecast right now is going to favor rain over snow if anything. I don't know...maybe we'll get lucky and see some backwash snow.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 15, 2018 22:38:44 GMT -6
That system Thursday is alittle intriguing. Quickly deeping low with some cold air and moisture to work with. Odds favor east of here but close enough that it needs to be watched
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 16, 2018 0:07:04 GMT -6
EPS and GEFS are pretty ugly the rest of the year. Mild to warm. Trough near gulf of Alaska doesn't want to leave like was modeled a few days ago. Hope the SSW works in our favor, and nor Europe or Asia. That could be disaster. Lol.
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Post by cozpregon on Dec 16, 2018 0:22:47 GMT -6
Just watching the pattern- right around New Years may be interesting
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 16, 2018 1:08:39 GMT -6
Euro has a cold wet Christmas as a weak system passes by. Close to cold enough though.
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Post by jeffcobeeman on Dec 16, 2018 9:30:31 GMT -6
Here we go again... Just two more weeks!
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Post by mchafin on Dec 16, 2018 10:00:23 GMT -6
We are going to 2 week ourselves into Spring.
Only because I say this, or some derivation of this, every year. ha.
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Post by cardsnweather on Dec 16, 2018 10:04:00 GMT -6
GFS is going to really raise some interest here.
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Post by cardsnweather on Dec 16, 2018 10:05:50 GMT -6
GFS is going to really raise some interest here. Lol. Hour 108 looked promising and then 114 is just bad. |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Dec 16, 2018 10:07:08 GMT -6
Yikes teleconnections flipped on us big time. EPO wanting to stay strongly positive now for the foreseeable future. Not great.
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Post by cardsnweather on Dec 16, 2018 10:10:03 GMT -6
It’d be different if the blues, Illini or rams were still in town and good but with the sports state where it is here I need my snow.
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