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Post by bdgwx on Dec 19, 2018 16:41:33 GMT -6
Sometimes I think the models could use a good old fashioned motivational speech from Matt Foley.
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 19, 2018 16:47:37 GMT -6
"IN A VAN DOWN BY THE RIVER."
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 19, 2018 16:48:37 GMT -6
He died 21 years ago yesterday. Hard to believe it's been that long. He was so damn funny.
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Post by bdgwx on Dec 19, 2018 16:53:03 GMT -6
Yeah...yeah...I know it's 7 days away, but check out the dryline on the 18Z GFS. That's about as close to true bona-fide dryline as you'll see in Missouri. And it keeps going all the way to Michigan before it starts washing out. Might have to consider severe weather as a possibility in MO if that trend continues...
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Dec 19, 2018 16:58:42 GMT -6
Yeah...yeah...I know it's 7 days away, but check out the dryline on the 18Z GFS. That's about as close to true bona-fide dryline as you'll see in Missouri. And it keeps going all the way to Michigan before it starts washing out. Might have to consider severe weather as a possibility in MO if that trend continues... I don't think anyone wants a Christmas Day severe weather outbreak |
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Post by guyfromhecker on Dec 19, 2018 17:00:06 GMT -6
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 19, 2018 18:43:09 GMT -6
Yeah...yeah...I know it's 7 days away, but check out the dryline on the 18Z GFS. That's about as close to true bona-fide dryline as you'll see in Missouri. And it keeps going all the way to Michigan before it starts washing out. Might have to consider severe weather as a possibility in MO if that trend continues... Was thinking the exact same thing today...the upper pattern sure has "the look" to it with a broad ridge across the Gulf/SE and a possibly negatively tilted trof lifting across the Plains. It's interesting to note that this is a similar pattern to what we saw last month with a potential snowstorm across parts of MO/IL followed closely by a severe wx event. That's assuming the EURO is actually picking up on a legit snow threat which is highly questionable right now though. It's also interesting that the MJO wave is coming through the same phases as that last active stretch which could lend some credence to that setup somewhere across the Midwest. The AO has also switched slightly negative which supports the idea of some colder air getting into the picture. We really need a well timed shortwave in the N branch to re-enforce the NW flow and confluence across the N tier and lakes region similar to what the EURO is showing because otherwise the trof in the GoA and WCONUS will tend to wash out the cold airmass. |
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Post by mchafin on Dec 19, 2018 21:46:11 GMT -6
CAN WE PLEASE STOP TALKING ABOUT THE ARTICLE. FOR THE LOVE OF GOD!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Anyone else read this in Chris Farley's voice? Bingo! |
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 20, 2018 7:41:48 GMT -6
This rain sucks
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 20, 2018 8:15:24 GMT -6
We need to watch that little system coming through on Sunday. There's a nice vort max moving through S MO with a weak SLP developing in concert with it. The GEM has some light snow around, the EC brings it together just a bit too late across IN. If that wave comes in hot and gets its act together quicker, it could lay down a band of wet snow across parts of the area. I think that wave has better potential of the two...the one behind it looks to track a bit too far N for us and maybe bring a mixed bag or just rain.
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Post by dschreib on Dec 20, 2018 8:26:58 GMT -6
The scroll wheel on a mouse is possibly the greatest invention ever.
I liked using Silly Putty to lift the ink off of old newspapers.
Carry on...wayward sons.
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Post by rb1108 on Dec 20, 2018 9:46:05 GMT -6
Looks like temps for Christmas Eve/Day have trended down a bit?
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Post by bear1 on Dec 20, 2018 10:20:30 GMT -6
And, according to radar, the rain is lifting out of my area already this am.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 20, 2018 10:32:46 GMT -6
GFS has jack squat...so there's that.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Dec 20, 2018 10:32:48 GMT -6
Man this is just not a great pattern. Only thing going for us is the cold in central and western Canada remains and builds. At least the Pacific hose isn't strong enough to push that out entirely, though it will keep it from locking in over the lower 48. If I've said it once I've said it a million times...we have GOT to get that EPO down into negative territory.
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Post by rb1108 on Dec 20, 2018 10:35:04 GMT -6
Man this is just not a great pattern. Only thing going for us is the cold in central and western Canada remains and builds. At least the Pacific hose isn't strong enough to push that out entirely, though it will keep it from locking in over the lower 48. If I've said it once I've said it a million times...we have GOT to get that EPO down into negative territory. Didn't you say yesterday that it's forecasted to start going down within the next 7 days? |
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Post by bdgwx on Dec 20, 2018 10:39:12 GMT -6
I noticed last night's Euro pulled the rug on that major winter storm on Christmas Eve as well.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Dec 20, 2018 10:39:56 GMT -6
Man this is just not a great pattern. Only thing going for us is the cold in central and western Canada remains and builds. At least the Pacific hose isn't strong enough to push that out entirely, though it will keep it from locking in over the lower 48. If I've said it once I've said it a million times...we have GOT to get that EPO down into negative territory. Didn't you say yesterday that it's forecasted to start going down within the next 7 days? It is trending down and has been, yes. But it needs to go down further and stay there for a bit. Today's runs aren't out yet. EDIT: Just came out...looks real similiar to yesterday with a slight dip into negative territory around the 28th before coming back up. But like I said no real point to looking beyond 7 days or so. At least it didn't project to jump way back up. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 20, 2018 10:48:44 GMT -6
Didn't you say yesterday that it's forecasted to start going down within the next 7 days? It is trending down and has been, yes. But it needs to go down further and stay there for a bit. Today's runs aren't out yet. EDIT: Just came out...looks real similiar to yesterday with a slight dip into negative territory around the 28th before coming back up. But like I said no real point to looking beyond 7 days or so. At least it didn't project to jump way back up. Models will not respond well to the SSW that is getting underway. We have known the pattern would suck for mid to late December for a long time. Should start to see some changes after the cutter on the 27th. True pattern change around the 10th, but the two week period between the 27th and 10th will at least hold some potential for actual winter events. |
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Post by rb1108 on Dec 20, 2018 13:44:57 GMT -6
Some members of the EURO still print out snow here on Christmas Eve. Some suggest a decent amount, but others much less.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Dec 20, 2018 13:53:46 GMT -6
Man is it a DREARY day!!!!
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Post by guyfromhecker on Dec 20, 2018 14:12:54 GMT -6
Looks like Fox is trying to panic us.What's good for the goose. Of course they're going with the same story because they don't have any smart scientists at FOX. They open up with this passage which is pretty much creative writing. You were right that some tiddlywink organizations would pick it up and turn it into something else. "Climate researchers are sounding the alarm on a polar vortex that’s predicted to sweep through the U.S.’ east coast later this month and inflict one of the harshest winters in years, The Washington Post reported." Nowhere in that Washington Post article did they claim it would be one of the worst in years. All they did was pointed out what happened in past years. Love the creative writing here
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 20, 2018 14:21:32 GMT -6
That headline and much of the statements within the article are simply misleading. "Last year a vortex that originated in Eurasia swept eastern North America, causing windstorms that lasted weeks."...um, what? They make it sound like the vortex is a glorified cold front. Are we still doing this? |
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Post by RyanD on Dec 20, 2018 14:36:56 GMT -6
Can we stop with this please Phil? Enough, geesh lol
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Post by guyfromhecker on Dec 20, 2018 14:40:02 GMT -6
That headline and much of the statements within the article are simply misleading. "Last year a vortex that originated in Eurasia swept eastern North America, causing windstorms that lasted weeks."...um, what? They make it sound like the vortex is a glorified cold front. Are we still doing this? I didn't even bother to read that far into the fox article because I knew it was trash when I saw it. They don't have a clue. They don't have a scientist on staff, I'll bet money on it. I don't even know if they believe in science there. Did you read the Washington Post article? It was a good, solid scientific article. Please take the we out of this and just point to the perpetrators. It's not all media. |
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Post by guyfromhecker on Dec 20, 2018 14:47:16 GMT -6
Can we stop with this please Phil? Enough, geesh lol Ryan, I'll say this as slowly as I can for all the impaired people. Posting that Washington Post article yesterday as some sort of example of anything but good journalism was a serious mistake by the poster. Covered with bias. I will not back away from that statement because it is true. To say that pissed me off yesterday is just putting it mildly |
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Post by guyfromhecker on Dec 20, 2018 14:58:28 GMT -6
I think we are so blinded and baffled by the b******* that we miss the obvious. That post should have been pulled my one of the moderators, but they couldn't see it for what it was. Just goes to show you
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 20, 2018 15:05:32 GMT -6
I only get this mad when someone judges how good a pitcher is on their W/L record...
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Post by mchafin on Dec 20, 2018 15:08:31 GMT -6
Enough. Please. Stop.
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 20, 2018 15:16:21 GMT -6
Phil
Cut. It. Out. Now. Please.
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