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Post by pbc12871 on Jan 8, 2019 6:08:12 GMT -6
There will have to be at least a couple of model runs that make everyone jittery. I think it's in the script.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 8, 2019 6:10:13 GMT -6
"As the forum turns"
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Post by Tilawn on Jan 8, 2019 6:16:56 GMT -6
There will have to be at least a couple of model runs that make everyone jittery. I think it's in the script. You mean like it continues to move further and further north, or it doesn’t merge together until it’s past us, or the dreaded DRY SLOT!!!!! 😂 |
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Jan 8, 2019 6:20:05 GMT -6
There will have to be at least a couple of model runs that make everyone jittery. I think it's in the script. You mean like it continues to move further and further north, or it doesn’t merge together until it’s past us, or the dreaded DRY SLOT!!!!! 😂 First you post your stuff on FB and now you say this!!!! You ARE trying to jinx this arent you!!!!   |
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Post by Tilawn on Jan 8, 2019 6:37:32 GMT -6
You mean like it continues to move further and further north, or it doesn’t merge together until it’s past us, or the dreaded DRY SLOT!!!!! 😂 First you post your stuff on FB and now you say this!!!! You ARE trying to jinx this arent you!!!! LOL!! And I still have a spreader on one of the trucks!! 😂 |
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Post by bear1 on Jan 8, 2019 6:37:55 GMT -6
Me thinks there's going to be a suicide watch issued Friday evening, when this thing doesn't pan out.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 8, 2019 6:54:09 GMT -6
So the:
Ukmet
FV3
GEM
All phase the system earlier on and you see what happens.
The GFS is trending that way.
The Euro is but slower to move that way.
So if that happens then this thing will be a major storm with potential for up to a foot.
If not then it's a 3-4" along I70 and 4-6" South of 44.
If it's a full phaser then more likely to see 6-10" along 44 in mo through the immediate metro along 64/70 in IL.
With a small strip of 9-12" SW of STL.
FWIW... There is nothing synoptically weighted against the stronger phase event.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 8, 2019 7:03:02 GMT -6
6z GEM has over 30 hrs of snow..much of it moderate or more. lol Do you have the qpf? Probably a foot from stl south |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 8, 2019 7:04:28 GMT -6
6z GEM has over 30 hrs of snow..much of it moderate or more. lol Do you have the qpf? Probably a foot from stl south Shades of February 1993. |
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Post by snowjunky on Jan 8, 2019 7:06:51 GMT -6
Does DM have any interest in this storm? Sorry, I don’t do Facebook to know this answer.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 8, 2019 7:17:12 GMT -6
Do you have the qpf? Probably a foot from stl south Shades of February 1993. 2/25/93 that is. That Pacific mosture in a phasing split flow. Except that didn't phase and still produced |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 8, 2019 7:26:50 GMT -6
Some of our best snows come from open waves...they limit the northward intrusion of warm air withe WAM.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 8, 2019 7:28:50 GMT -6
Where's your level of interest with this one, Chris? That last post gives me a hint.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 8, 2019 7:29:30 GMT -6
2/25/93 that is. That Pacific mosture in a phasing split flow. Except that didn't phase and still produced Too young to remember that one...I think. Well, was there significant snow in the southern part of the viewing area? Totals? I remember a big one toward the end of winter when I was just a wee little feller. |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jan 8, 2019 7:33:56 GMT -6
I'm concerned the NWS is posting an accumulation map this far in advance. They did that a month or so ago and two days later the storm had evaporated.
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Jan 8, 2019 7:34:58 GMT -6
I like that the EOC in St. Clair County IL has already started to warn people. Regardless of how much falls, alerting the public is never a bad idea, no matter how mad folks get when it doesnt pan out.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 8, 2019 7:42:09 GMT -6
Where's your level of interest with this one, Chris? That last post gives me a hint. Im trying to not pay attention. I am supposedly on vacation this week. But spent most of the weekend at work...and all day yesterday...working on non-broadcast technical stuff. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 8, 2019 7:44:03 GMT -6
But... I would say a new thread is likely at some point today as we definitely have what must be classified as a watcher.
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Post by tedrick65 on Jan 8, 2019 7:47:27 GMT -6
Looks like he just picked up on it this morning. Didn't mention snow at all last night on the DGS Does DM have any interest in this storm? Sorry, I don’t do Facebook to know this answer. |
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 8, 2019 7:49:21 GMT -6
Based on the EPS and other off hour model runs I'll go ahead and raise my confidence level to medium for an advisory level event in the metro area.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 8, 2019 7:59:28 GMT -6
Based on the EPS and other off hour model runs I'll go ahead and raise my confidence level to medium for an advisory level event in the metro area. You strike me as a $1 blackjack kind of person. Friv plays $10 slots. |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 8, 2019 8:25:40 GMT -6
Based on the EPS and other off hour model runs I'll go ahead and raise my confidence level to medium for an advisory level event in the metro area. You strike me as a $1 blackjack kind of person. Friv plays $10 slots. I'm skeptical. But there is a lot reasons with this one at this point to start to beat optimistic because this is kind of setting up to being a classic widespread saint Louis crusher. The precipitation field is going to be big. |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 8, 2019 8:28:43 GMT -6
2/25/93 that is. That Pacific mosture in a phasing split flow. Except that didn't phase and still produced Too young to remember that one...I think. Well, was there significant snow in the southern part of the viewing area? Totals? I remember a big one toward the end of winter when I was just a wee little feller. Here you go from the nws archives. IT WAS AWESOME. FEBRUARY 24TH: 1891: A tornado causing F2 damage formed 3 miles west of Troy. The funnel was "a spectacular sight, half a mile high, with a long kite tail". A farm home was unroofed, and a bed from the second story landed across the road. 1956: A tornado causing F4 damage was responsible for 16 injuries in St. Louis and St. Clair counties. 1993: Between the 24th and 25th, 13.1 inches of snow fell at Columbia. This is the 5th greatest 24-hour snowfall total on record for this location. 11.7 inches of snow fell at St. Louis making it the 12th greatest 24-hour snowfall total for that location. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 8, 2019 8:38:18 GMT -6
Based on the EPS and other off hour model runs I'll go ahead and raise my confidence level to medium for an advisory level event in the metro area. That is direction I am leaning. |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jan 8, 2019 8:51:04 GMT -6
DM comment from Facebook as of about 8 AM this morning
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 8, 2019 8:52:51 GMT -6
FWIW....
The 12Z NAM looks fantastic at 84 hours.
Would end up WARNING level impact probably around what the 06z GFS had.
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 8, 2019 8:55:58 GMT -6
Based on the EPS and other off hour model runs I'll go ahead and raise my confidence level to medium for an advisory level event in the metro area. You strike me as a $1 blackjack kind of person. Friv plays $10 slots. It's the BBQ method of snow forecasting. Start low and slow. |
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Jan 8, 2019 9:08:55 GMT -6
You strike me as a $1 blackjack kind of person. Friv plays $10 slots. It's the BBQ method of snow forecasting. Start low and slow. THIS^^^^ hahahahaha you have be rolling! hahahaha |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 8, 2019 9:09:27 GMT -6
Man how I've missed these times! Maybe we can dust off (probably de-rust, lubricate, and re-calibrate at this point) the Frivometer by week's end.
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Post by The Commish- Lake St. Louis on Jan 8, 2019 9:19:49 GMT -6
Been a long time since the Frivometer has been brought out. Let's keep the trends favoring in ALL of our favors!!!!!! The lead up to the NAM looks promising as well. Just feel we may be in for a bit of a roller coaster ride with this one.
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