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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 13, 2019 13:01:28 GMT -6
Nice to at least have a couple to a few things to track unlike the monstrous 6 week gap of boring-ness after the November storm.
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Post by jeepers on Jan 13, 2019 13:02:06 GMT -6
Define hammered.
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 13, 2019 13:04:23 GMT -6
M11.1 is my final report here in Harvester near Hwy. 94/364 and Jungermann Rd.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 13, 2019 13:08:13 GMT -6
SN+
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 13, 2019 13:16:51 GMT -6
M11.1 is my final report here in Harvester near Hwy. 94/364 and Jungermann Rd. Alittle bit more than 5-9” eh?  |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 13, 2019 13:20:31 GMT -6
The GFS is focusing too much energy out front in typical fashion...the way it drives that lead wave into the confluence looks silly to me. It has just as much upstream ridging as the EURO but doesn't dig and is much further N and warmer...I don't buy it. There's not a lot of room for a storm to come that far north with the upper flow orientation and strong ridging.
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 13, 2019 13:22:00 GMT -6
M11.1 is my final report here in Harvester near Hwy. 94/364 and Jungermann Rd. Alittle bit more than 5-9” eh? I should have pulled up that seat to the big boy table |
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Post by yypc on Jan 13, 2019 13:23:29 GMT -6
A few inches of snow and sleet/ice for the immediate metro. More like 10” up near bowling green. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 13, 2019 13:24:58 GMT -6
The GFS is focusing too much energy out front in typical fashion...the way it drives that lead wave into the confluence looks silly to me. It has just as much upstream ridging as the EURO but doesn't dig and is much further N and warmer...I don't buy it. There's not a lot of room for a storm to come that far north with the upper flow orientation and strong ridging. I’m glad the GFS is being replaced with the FV3 soon because it seems to be losing it in its old age |
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 13, 2019 13:25:24 GMT -6
Did anyone notice that the outermost closed isobar on that surface low yesterday was 1020mb? That's pretty high. Usually the background pressure in the southern US is around 1012mb during our heavy snowfall events.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 13, 2019 13:33:13 GMT -6
Did anyone notice that the outermost closed isobar on that surface low yesterday was 1020mb? That's pretty high. Usually the background pressure in the southern US is around 1012mb during our heavy snowfall events. Nothing about this system was typical...it was a complete oddity when it comes to winter storms. |
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Post by mmarkillie82 on Jan 13, 2019 13:57:39 GMT -6
Did anyone notice that the outermost closed isobar on that surface low yesterday was 1020mb? That's pretty high. Usually the background pressure in the southern US is around 1012mb during our heavy snowfall events. Nothing about this system was typical...it was a complete oddity when it comes to winter storms. And I love it |
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Post by cozpregon on Jan 13, 2019 13:58:07 GMT -6
Did anyone notice that the outermost closed isobar on that surface low yesterday was 1020mb? That's pretty high. Usually the background pressure in the southern US is around 1012mb during our heavy snowfall events. Nothing about this system was typical...it was a complete oddity when it comes to winter storms. Surprised how well the models did with it. Precip type was so dynamically driven |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 13, 2019 14:09:57 GMT -6
Both the GEFS and EPS are in good agreement saying the most likely track of the surface low for the system next weekend is from Oklahoma/N TX to Memphis and on east
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Post by jeepers on Jan 13, 2019 14:12:48 GMT -6
Okay, calling my final total 12.75. Added a little more with the constant light snow.
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Post by cozpregon on Jan 13, 2019 14:15:03 GMT -6
Both the GEFS and EPS are in good agreement saying the most likely track of the surface low for the system next weekend is from Oklahoma/N TX to Memphis and on east Euro is set further back with the northern stream... makes it difficult for the southern stream to go north. |
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Post by landscaper on Jan 13, 2019 14:26:55 GMT -6
I think we’re in a good spot for next week, maybe not ground zero but definitely a chance for more snow and ice
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Post by rb1108 on Jan 13, 2019 14:33:40 GMT -6
Both the GEFS and EPS are in good agreement saying the most likely track of the surface low for the system next weekend is from Oklahoma/N TX to Memphis and on east Good track for a major winter storm around here? |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 13, 2019 14:39:01 GMT -6
Both the GEFS and EPS are in good agreement saying the most likely track of the surface low for the system next weekend is from Oklahoma/N TX to Memphis and on east Good track for a major winter storm around here? Pretty close to ideal. Aslong as we keep the surface low to our south we will be in the wintery side of the storm |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 13, 2019 14:41:59 GMT -6
Staring the track home. I will start a new thread either later tonight or tomorrow to start looking at the weekend.
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Post by bear1 on Jan 13, 2019 14:49:53 GMT -6
Safe Traveling |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 13, 2019 14:52:31 GMT -6
Both the GEFS and EPS are in good agreement saying the most likely track of the surface low for the system next weekend is from Oklahoma/N TX to Memphis and on east Yeah, a blend of the ensembles has a very supportive track of the GYB features at this range. I also noticed that mean MSLP forecasts have a 15mb+ pressure gradient across MO on the backside as the storm pulls away...that's going to create a lot of wind. |
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Post by amstilost on Jan 13, 2019 14:57:21 GMT -6
It was my life in the 70's and early 80's.  |
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Post by amstilost on Jan 13, 2019 15:00:57 GMT -6
Be safe Chris.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 13, 2019 15:03:14 GMT -6
Both the GEFS and EPS are in good agreement saying the most likely track of the surface low for the system next weekend is from Oklahoma/N TX to Memphis and on east Yeah, a blend of the ensembles has a very supportive track of the GYB features at this range. I also noticed that mean MSLP forecasts have a 15mb+ pressure gradient across MO on the backside as the storm pulls away...that's going to create a lot of wind. The wind/cold on the backside of this system looks pretty intense. Looking like a blizzard is likely somewhere in the midwest.
Speaking of the wind....that would really exacerbate the severity of any icing that occurs with this system
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jan 13, 2019 15:11:15 GMT -6
Back from the store. Plenty of milk in stock. Didn't go down the bread aisle and didn't notice the eggs. But there were a few items low on stock. And the most notable thing is that was completely gone was several brands of frozen pizza
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 13, 2019 15:16:32 GMT -6
I'm seeing what you guys are seeing as well. In fact, both the EPS and GEFS have a signal for a 2nd storm as well immediately following the weekend potential.
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Post by yypc on Jan 13, 2019 15:38:29 GMT -6
Still a long way to go on this one and there is 0 model consensus so far. We will have to wait a few more days at least to know the probable path.
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Post by let it snow11 on Jan 13, 2019 15:41:20 GMT -6
6 inches of snow fell in my neck of the woods this time around (just north of Bonne Terre). Add to that the 3 inches we had in November brings a total of 9 inches on the season so far. Nothing extreme, but a nice total so far. Much better than the last few winters.
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Post by rb1108 on Jan 13, 2019 16:06:33 GMT -6
I didn't realize it was lightly snowing here again until someone said, "ughhhh, Go away! It just keeps coming...."....I found out it was in reference to the relentless snow.
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