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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jan 14, 2019 1:23:42 GMT -6
Euro has over .25 of ice..over 6 inches of snow, blizzard conditions. Temps stay in the single digits next Sunday, get down to the minus teens Sunday night with wind chills around -30. 850 temps drop to near -20. Now, that's winter. If that verified we haven't seen anything that severe in a few decades. Don't remember how cold it got officially in 2014 (was that the year?) But I don't remember it being that cold. |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jan 14, 2019 3:17:38 GMT -6
Posted by my friend who lives outside Anchorage. The cold there is not a joke
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Post by bororug on Jan 14, 2019 3:22:02 GMT -6
Well we have been living in Dittmer this last year. About 10 miles west of DeSoto. I can tell you we had no more than 8 inches with this storm. Takes me about 25-30 minutes to get to Dittmer from my house. It’s to the northwest of here. I had 7.25” before compaction from rain on Saturday then added another 3” from the def band that sat on top of me for a while. My number I’m going w/ is 10.25”, FMBY. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 14, 2019 3:59:24 GMT -6
From the disco:
We continue to watch what is a storm system of interest for the
upcoming weekend. Operational models have come into somewhat better
agreement on timing and track for a piece of energy that is
currently near the westernmost point of the Aleutian Islands.
Despite the reasonably good agreement in the operational models,
confidence is only modestly increased and overall still remains on
the low to moderate side on such items such as precipitation types,
potential accumulations, and impacts. The reasons for this are that
the preferred depiction of this system shows a tight low level
temperature gradient (due in part to a very cold airmass slowly
building in from the north) that will be critical for determining
precipitation-types. Also, this system is still many thousands
of miles away from our region, and a mere shift of 50 miles in track
will drastically alter the forecast. Influencers of this track
include how much effect the longwave pattern to our north will have,
and this will involve tracking disturbances that are currently north
of Alaska. Models are simply not good enough to be able to lock
onto that kind of storm track accuracy that far out. As it looks
now, this storm does carry the potential to drop a significant
accumulation of snow and anyone with interests for this area for the
upcoming weekend is advised to continue to monitor the forecast for
future updates on this system.
Other items that will need to be watched for the weekend is there is
moderate to good confidence on bitterly cold air building in behind
the early weekend storm system, and if it has a deep snowpack to
work with, widespread sub-zero temperatures could result. Winds
look to be rather strong and gusty when this cold air initially
builds in later on Saturday and into early Sunday, which could send
wind chills tumbling below zero as well.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 14, 2019 4:16:50 GMT -6
6z GFS is like a huge blizzard, lol
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gonefishin - WashMO
Junior Forecaster
Washington, Franklin County, MO
Posts: 491 
Snowfall Events: 2013-2014: A lot!
2014-2015: If you forecast it, it will come!
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Post by gonefishin - WashMO on Jan 14, 2019 4:37:13 GMT -6
I had about 11" at my house, and no way did Washington get anywhere close to 17. I live near Highway 100 and Highway A in Washington and maxed out at between 11-11.5”. 17 inches couldn’t have happened. |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 14, 2019 4:55:40 GMT -6
6z GFS is like a huge blizzard, lol Only modest snow accumulation. But I'd lock it in an throw away the key. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 14, 2019 5:11:40 GMT -6
Eh..4-8 inches is good enough.
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Post by landscaper on Jan 14, 2019 6:14:31 GMT -6
The models and ensembles are in decent agreement bringing some some snow and ice here followed with high winds and crashing temps. I agree with snow on this I think the models will have a harder time with this storm due to all the different pieces involved.
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Post by freezyfree on Jan 14, 2019 6:34:40 GMT -6
If we are going to talk about MODOT and their shortfalls.....then we should probably talk about Missouri drivers and their issues with lack of experience driving in the snow. I was telling my husband that many, many current drivers had never had the opportunity to drive in snow of any significant accumulation. Our son is just shy of 21, and he had never driven in snow like this. |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jan 14, 2019 7:36:20 GMT -6
If we are going to talk about MODOT and their shortfalls.....then we should probably talk about Missouri drivers and their issues with lack of experience driving in the snow. I was telling my husband that many, many current drivers had never had the opportunity to drive in snow of any significant accumulation. Our son is just shy of 21, and he had never driven in snow like this. Was telling my wife that by the time we finished wit the winters in the late 70s St. Louisians had gotten pretty good at driving in the snow. They weren't even closing schools when we'd get 4 or 5 inches |
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Post by koll27–Waterloo, IL on Jan 14, 2019 7:36:42 GMT -6
I just took a spill at my son's school in the parking lot. My back is jacked.
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Jan 14, 2019 7:37:36 GMT -6
I can imagine the majority of those here (whom arent at work) are catching up on sleep. Thank you all for a really great forum discussion and forecasts during this latest system. Great work by all. I am glad you made it home safely Chris! I am watching this next system closely because my son is due to deploy on Sunday and my wife and I are contemplating a trip to visit him. May have to wait and just go out to Germany to see him. Have a great week folks!
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jan 14, 2019 7:37:52 GMT -6
Springfield IL is reporting 6 degrees and freezing fog. Not something you seevery often in this area
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 14, 2019 7:38:54 GMT -6
6z gefs ensemble shows considerable variability (nearly 1/3 Chicago, 1/3 St. Louis, and 1/3 suppressed).
This is a complicated setup and I expect models to perform far worse than the last storm.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 14, 2019 7:45:32 GMT -6
6z gefs ensemble shows considerable variability (nearly 1/3 Chicago, 1/3 St. Louis, and 1/3 suppressed). This is a complicated setup and I expect models to perform far worse than the last storm. Yea, there's gonna be lots of highs and lows of model watching this week I think. Seems like once you get it a couple times though, it keeps on coming. Patterns like this tend to make the rich richer. We've been on the bad side of that plenty of times over the years but this looks to be our turn. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 14, 2019 7:52:57 GMT -6
6z gefs ensemble shows considerable variability (nearly 1/3 Chicago, 1/3 St. Louis, and 1/3 suppressed). This is a complicated setup and I expect models to perform far worse than the last storm. Yea, there's gonna be lots of highs and lows of model watching this week I think. Seems like once you get it a couple times though, it keeps on coming. Patterns like this tend to make the rich richer. We've been on the bad side of that plenty of times over the years but this looks to be our turn. This pattern has the potential to run through February or even early March. Remember the February Boaton had a few years ago? DR. Cohen took a lot of crap as the SSW and PV split got pushed back. After the next couple weeks though, he will be very popular in the mainstream media. |
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Post by ElburnDave on Jan 14, 2019 8:03:31 GMT -6
We ended up with 4 inches from your StL snowstorm. Quite the widespread winter storm! I'm finding after 5 seasons here, I enjoy the snow less. Not because of the Law of Dimishing Returns, but because I now equate snow with long hours and lost weekends at work. Sixteen hours plowing takes the fun out.
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Jan 14, 2019 8:07:58 GMT -6
12Z's running yet?
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Post by jeffcobeeman on Jan 14, 2019 8:08:02 GMT -6
I had about 11" at my house, and no way did Washington get anywhere close to 17. I live near Highway 100 and Highway A in Washington and maxed out at between 11-11.5”. 17 inches couldn’t have happened. Ok... not defending the person, because it looks suspect to me too since the rest of your measurements seem more realistic, what if they had cleared the surface and took multiple measurements over the duration? Even more frequent than every 6 hours? Im going to do both next time to see if there is a significant difference in the measurements. |
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Jan 14, 2019 8:15:38 GMT -6
I took measurements every 2 to 3 hours. Stopped at 10PM and picked back up at 8AM. At 10PM we had 5 and at 8AM we had 5 more. Not sure how much compacted so went with 10" at 8AM. We got another inch Saturday morning through 11ish when the rain started, Total was 11 at my house. got a dusting through Sunday afternoon.
Now, before you yell at me about having nothing to do with Washington MO, the NWS has no official report from KBLV (2 miles north of Mascoutah). Looking at their total map, has us in the 9" range (I think). Just wanted to use that as a comparison. Though the difference between 9 and 11 isn't as great as 11 and 17.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 14, 2019 8:21:20 GMT -6
I live near Highway 100 and Highway A in Washington and maxed out at between 11-11.5”. 17 inches couldn’t have happened. Ok... not defending the person, because it looks suspect to me too since the rest of your measurements seem more realistic, what if they had cleared the surface and took multiple measurements over the duration? Even more frequent than every 6 hours? Im going to do both next time to see if there is a significant difference in the measurements. I suspect that's the case...especially with it being a COOP observer. Just goes to show how much compaction there was.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 14, 2019 8:24:13 GMT -6
Springfield IL is reporting 6 degrees and freezing fog. Not something you seevery often in this area It's like there's a little chunk of arctic air across central IL...I'm 20* higher right now. I suspect they cleared out for a bit overnight and had ideal radiational cooling conditions. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 14, 2019 8:26:18 GMT -6
Overnight ensemble means still show a favorable track of the GYB features for a winter storm here...although the 850mb low track may have nudged a bit further north which would raise the ante for ice around here but still bring healthy backside snow once it moves by. Still a very strong signal for a significant to major winter storm across the region for sure. And with a 1045-1050mb ridge pushing down behind it, blizzard conditions are still on the table...although I'd like to see a deepening storm for those kinds of winds to verify and ensemble means don't really deepen the SLP at all.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 14, 2019 8:33:44 GMT -6
There were several posts that said the amount of snow accumulation will be higher than the amount of snow on the ground due to compaction. If a observer cleared the board every 6 hours that wld explain why. Next weekend is probably high impact attm of course subject to change but the potential is there for rain to fr rn to sleet and finally to snow. Given the northward trend, our snow totals may not be that much compared with this weekend, but the impact may be the same.
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Post by jeffcobeeman on Jan 14, 2019 8:50:46 GMT -6
Overnight ensemble means still show a favorable track of the GYB features for a winter storm here...although the 850mb low track may have nudged a bit further north which would raise the ante for ice around here but still bring healthy backside snow once it moves by. Still a very strong signal for a significant to major winter storm across the region for sure. And with a 1045-1050mb ridge pushing down behind it, blizzard conditions are still on the table...although I'd like to see a deepening storm for those kinds of winds to verify and ensemble means don't really deepen the SLP at all. Even a little ice can turn a situation from minor to significant pretty quickly. I think the StL area is overdue for a big ice storm. The biggest one I ever went through was once again the late 70's or early 80's. I watched the whole crown of a 60 foot Ash tree snap off and crash to the ground. Our house backed up to some dense woods, and all night long, even inside the house, you could hear the trees popping and cracking. I have been though other ice storms, but I dont think any were ever worse than that! |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 14, 2019 8:53:45 GMT -6
Yes we are waaaaaay overdue for a major ice storm! And they tend to occur during El Nino years...
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jan 14, 2019 8:54:24 GMT -6
Overnight ensemble means still show a favorable track of the GYB features for a winter storm here...although the 850mb low track may have nudged a bit further north which would raise the ante for ice around here but still bring healthy backside snow once it moves by. Still a very strong signal for a significant to major winter storm across the region for sure. And with a 1045-1050mb ridge pushing down behind it, blizzard conditions are still on the table...although I'd like to see a deepening storm for those kinds of winds to verify and ensemble means don't really deepen the SLP at all. Even a little ice can turn a situation from minor to significant pretty quickly. I think the StL area is overdue for a big ice storm. The biggest one I ever went through was once again the late 70's or early 80's. I watched the whole crown of a 60 foot Ash tree snap off and crash to the ground. Our house backed up to some dense woods, and all night long, even inside the house, you could hear the trees popping and cracking. I have been though other ice storms, but I dont think any were ever worse than that! Especially since there's possibilities of wind to go with the ice that would add to the problem |
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Post by landscaper on Jan 14, 2019 8:57:26 GMT -6
I still like the ensemble approach for this weekend,and with that we are in a good spot right now for some form of winter storm. Likely a much different storm , even 3-6” on top of what will be left with high winds and very cold temps would be tough to handle. I do think ice will be involved somewhere in the area to some degree.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 14, 2019 8:59:48 GMT -6
Overnight ensemble means still show a favorable track of the GYB features for a winter storm here...although the 850mb low track may have nudged a bit further north which would raise the ante for ice around here but still bring healthy backside snow once it moves by. Still a very strong signal for a significant to major winter storm across the region for sure. And with a 1045-1050mb ridge pushing down behind it, blizzard conditions are still on the table...although I'd like to see a deepening storm for those kinds of winds to verify and ensemble means don't really deepen the SLP at all. Even a little ice can turn a situation from minor to significant pretty quickly. I think the StL area is overdue for a big ice storm. The biggest one I ever went through was once again the late 70's or early 80's. I watched the whole crown of a 60 foot Ash tree snap off and crash to the ground. Our house backed up to some dense woods, and all night long, even inside the house, you could hear the trees popping and cracking. I have been though other ice storms, but I dont think any were ever worse than that!Nov. 30th/Dec. 1st 2006 would like to speak with you  . I think we had just shy of .50 zr in Ste. Gen from the above mentioned storm (AKA the true birth of Chris's Corner). I remember the gusting winds and large trees crashing all night long. |
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