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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 9, 2019 20:42:04 GMT -6
I could even see the NWS waiting until around midday to issue anything. The STL office is frequently slower to pull the trigger on that sort of thing than Paducah or Spfld, MO I am also not sure how many folks they have on furlough right now....which may impact operations. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 9, 2019 20:42:22 GMT -6
Mark the NAM down as another model dropping a foot plus for most of the area
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 9, 2019 20:43:23 GMT -6
Nam has joined the 1"+, qpf , 12+" snow club
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 9, 2019 20:43:46 GMT -6
Well Belleville/St. Clair county, IL cashes out on the NAM that trowal/deformation band comes right through and trains for a bit.
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Post by landscaper on Jan 9, 2019 20:46:12 GMT -6
There’s a lot of members in that club... I wonder how long the NWS is going to ride the dry GFS train.
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 9, 2019 20:47:16 GMT -6
We have to follow protocol or the snow Gods will be displeased. 99 can you create a "The NAM sure is moist" meme?
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 9, 2019 20:47:33 GMT -6
The NAM 3km is not as robust with the WAM...Only out to 60 but you will like where it is going.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 9, 2019 20:47:35 GMT -6
Jeffco gets a lollipop of 14-16" per the NAM with 10-13" for pretty much the rest of the immediate metro, slightly less but still impressive 8-10 with spots of 11" north of I-70.
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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Jan 9, 2019 20:47:53 GMT -6
There’s a lot of members in that club... I wonder how long the NWS is going to ride the dry GFS train. Do we dare to call the GFS dry though with ONLY 5 inches... |
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Post by rb1108 on Jan 9, 2019 20:49:06 GMT -6
There’s a lot of members in that club... I wonder how long the NWS is going to ride the dry GFS train. Do we dare to call the GFS dry though with ONLY 5 inches... It upped it to 6 to 8 last run...but yeah, calling that “dry” says a lot |
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Post by landscaper on Jan 9, 2019 20:49:37 GMT -6
The NAM looks very similar to the EURO , shows a nice trowel Development at the end of its run . This should be one of the coolest storms to track and watch this weekend!
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 9, 2019 20:49:55 GMT -6
The NAM 3km is not as robust with the WAM...Only out to 60 but you will like where it is going. The LLJ was much weaker this run. Matched the fv3 and ggem much more closely. |
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Post by landscaper on Jan 9, 2019 20:52:06 GMT -6
When you have every other model showing at least 8-12” 5-6” is pretty dry! I could see it making another jump up tonight. Hopefully it picks up on the trowel as well
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 9, 2019 20:53:29 GMT -6
NAM ends hour 84 with snow showers/flurries still falling across much of the area, so clearly NAM is on the EURO Express.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 9, 2019 20:54:29 GMT -6
Just a matter of time to see if this Hype Train is able to chug and chug, and chug into Epictown Station and deliver the goods.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 9, 2019 20:57:11 GMT -6
With the cold air coming down late next week and an active storm track, a 10 inch snow could consolidate into a 4 inch snowpack that could be built upon for weeks.
Some 35 degrees days next week could ruin it, but there is a legitimate chance at building a snow pack.
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 9, 2019 20:57:34 GMT -6
The NAM gives the metro area a spankin. We've been naughty the last 5 years so we probably deserve it.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 9, 2019 20:58:43 GMT -6
With the cold air coming down late next week and an active storm track, a 10 inch snow could consolidate into a 4 inch snowpack that could be built upon for weeks. Some 35 degrees days next week could ruin it, but there is a legitimate chance at building a snow pack. 18Z GFS would indeed have snow on top of snow situation going on around Day 11 into 16. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 9, 2019 21:00:49 GMT -6
I highly doubt there will be any snow left by late next week. Temps in the 40s next week will put a kabosh on building a snowpack. For now.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 9, 2019 21:02:03 GMT -6
The NAM would surpass the Jan 2014 storm in terms of total snow at my house
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 9, 2019 21:03:48 GMT -6
Not seeing the contamination unless you're go way way South of STL. That doesn't include sleet  |
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Post by rb1108 on Jan 9, 2019 21:04:27 GMT -6
I highly doubt there will be any snow left by late next week. Temps in the 40s next week will put a kabosh on building a snowpack. For now. You also highly doubted there would be a major snowstorm at the end of this week. Just sayin, lol |
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Post by cozpregon on Jan 9, 2019 21:06:31 GMT -6
Just doing the math... models mostly agree the WAA snow begins roughly 400-500 in the metro- lasting into the morning hours on Saturday. So lets say 15 hours... if we just get 1/2" hour- which is likely being generous on the low side.
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Post by landscaper on Jan 9, 2019 21:08:44 GMT -6
I just looked at the gfs long range, I had no idea it shows back to back to back accumulating snows with plenty of cold air toward the end of its run . This could be an amazing run for sure. Ithis weekend storm should make for some great sledding and snow man making snow with the higher water content. And it will likely be a heavy wet snow to shovel.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 9, 2019 21:09:01 GMT -6
I highly doubt there will be any snow left by late next week. Temps in the 40s next week will put a kabosh on building a snowpack. For now. Those temps will come down as models factor snow cover in. But yeah, get on the wrong side of a low and it runs it. My point is things look amazing in the extended. |
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Post by jeepers on Jan 9, 2019 21:09:34 GMT -6
I highly doubt there will be any snow left by late next week. Temps in the 40s next week will put a kabosh on building a snowpack. For now. You also highly doubted there would be a major snowstorm at the end of this week. Just sayin, lol He's not the only one.  |
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mccarthb
Junior Forecaster
O'Fallon, MO - Outer Road near border of Dardenne Prarie
Posts: 443 
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Post by mccarthb on Jan 9, 2019 21:09:48 GMT -6
Since this has been compared to the 2002 (I think) December storm, I found an archive from Springfield showing totals. Any semblance? I really have no clue since I wasn't in STL at the time of this storm. I was a senior in high school in Atlanta, GA at that time. A city where a snow flake will shut down the city.
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Post by landscaper on Jan 9, 2019 21:10:50 GMT -6
I love that map Friv posted especially the nice 12.8” right over my house. That would put me right about 25” in the year!
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Post by TK on Jan 9, 2019 21:12:23 GMT -6
"your gonna need a bigger box...." 
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Post by mosue56 on Jan 9, 2019 21:14:59 GMT -6
I’m grateful for 5 inches, I just can’t even imagine double that in Festus! I’d be shocked!
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