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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 10, 2019 2:44:58 GMT -6
IF these models are close. It should just pour snow all night Friday night like 1-2"+ per hour stuff...If..if...if
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Post by landscaper on Jan 10, 2019 2:50:11 GMT -6
Yes I agree Snowman, I felt good about my prediction of 4-8” until earlier today. I think now the whole metro is in the 8-12” range and that is taking several inches off of what is being modeled. Most of the snow is falling at night with cold ground temperatures you will have great accumulation except maybe s 6 hour window on Saturday afternoon. This will likely be one of the biggest and longest storms I can remember. Most of the other big storms in the past 10-20 years were your typical 8-15 hour snows and it was over.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 10, 2019 3:08:47 GMT -6
Springfield office just issued watches for their NE counties. I suspect lsx is about to issue watches
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 10, 2019 3:10:52 GMT -6
WPC has a 30-50% of 8+ inches. from Stl west and a 10-20% of a foot or more sw of town. High risk of 4+ inches on day 2..low risk on day 3.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 10, 2019 3:20:46 GMT -6
Haha, all 51 of the EPS members have 6 inches or more, ALL of them. Most have around 10 or more. Absolutely insane.
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bob
Junior Forecaster
Posts: 334 
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Post by bob on Jan 10, 2019 3:25:27 GMT -6
do you think nws stl is going issue watch?
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 10, 2019 3:26:04 GMT -6
do you think nws stl is going issue watch? Yes. Very soon |
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 10, 2019 3:29:39 GMT -6
WSW from Friday afternoon through late Saturday night, for pretty much everyone. My forecast is for 6-9". St louis around 8". SO they increased some as expected. Still room for more depending what the models show the next 12-24 hours.
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Post by birdsonthebat (MO'Fallon) on Jan 10, 2019 3:34:57 GMT -6
KC has placed their eastern counties under WSW....from Friday at 12:00pm to Sunday at 12:00pm
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Post by birdsonthebat (MO'Fallon) on Jan 10, 2019 3:37:55 GMT -6
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bob
Junior Forecaster
Posts: 334
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Post by bob on Jan 10, 2019 3:47:06 GMT -6
wonder why nws going with lower snow fall numbers. they expecting more sleet
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 10, 2019 3:47:39 GMT -6
Lol..the ICON has 1.75-2" over the metro qpf.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 10, 2019 3:54:06 GMT -6
Ok, so the NWS winter storm statement says 5-7 inches. But, reading zone forecasts, there are numerous areas where they have total accumulations around 8", or 7-8" or 6-9 like here. What the hell is that all about? lol
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 10, 2019 3:56:04 GMT -6
It's like pulling teeth, the GFS is SLOWLY catching on. Has the .75 line up to about Union. It's still nudging north and closer every run. lol
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 10, 2019 4:29:52 GMT -6
wow. Union Has a 100% of.1, 1, 2, and 4 inches. 92% for more than 6 inches and 56% for more than 8. 7% for more than 12.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 10, 2019 4:30:55 GMT -6
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Post by Sparkman - Wildwood, Mo on Jan 10, 2019 4:34:57 GMT -6
NWS flipped in the AFD and will follow the Euro and the NAM - discounted the GFS for a couple of the previously stated issues.
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Post by snowjunky on Jan 10, 2019 4:56:11 GMT -6
I don't think I have ever seen the snowfall maps increase in snowfall totals like we are seeing with this storm. I did go through the '82 snowstorm and it was a thing of beauty, the local channels would scroll at the bottom of the TV, the increase in snowfall amounts and it kept snowing and snowing and we could not believe all the snow as it unfolded. This storm is taking me back to that feeling back in '82 and I have not felt that feeling since that snowstorm of '82.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 10, 2019 5:01:33 GMT -6
Let's not compare this to '82. Let's not mention "Lucy and the football". Let's just let 'er ride.
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Post by Farmtown WX on Jan 10, 2019 5:30:01 GMT -6
It’s funny how no matter what the totals, I always wish it was more. I’m usually like “aww man, why do we get 1-2” and Stl gets 3-4”.” This morning I caught myself saying “bummer, only 6”, I was hoping we would catch the 8-12.” Never enough.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 10, 2019 5:33:24 GMT -6
FV3 still has 1.4-1.5 qpf across st louis, lol.
Most all models now have snow showers into Sunday morning. King Euro showing it's a$$
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 10, 2019 5:47:21 GMT -6
Hires NAM continues to show a colder profile. I'm skeptical but that's great to see.
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 10, 2019 5:53:46 GMT -6
A blend of EPS, GEFS, and SREF shows the maxima just to the southwest of the metro.  |
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Post by Tilawn on Jan 10, 2019 6:04:34 GMT -6
I think I may announce my retirement from snow removal today. Already starting to get calls from clients asking if there lot will be clean by such and such time......my response let it fall first then I can answer your questions better but not with a lot of certainty as to when I’ll be there if there is 8-12” on the ground. From a plow truck operator this storm is going to SUCK!!
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 10, 2019 6:08:27 GMT -6
NWS watches line up pretty well with the 50% probability of 6"+.  |
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Post by bororug on Jan 10, 2019 6:13:05 GMT -6
Wasn’t the ICON the first model to point out the possibility of this storm for our area last weekend?
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 10, 2019 6:14:59 GMT -6
My God, it looks like the qpf from the 6z euro is even a touch higher for the area, lmao
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 10, 2019 6:18:26 GMT -6
6Z Euro is similar but with a bigger extent for the 1"+ contour. It looks like it lollipops Union with 1.6" this time; or at least it's close.
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 10, 2019 6:21:53 GMT -6
99, you're in a good spot this time. Even if/when we do see a 25 mile shifts in the snow maxima at nowcast time you're still in the prime area.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 10, 2019 6:24:39 GMT -6
Good sized area of 1.2-1.4 over st louis to the west,..with a spot of 1.4-1.6 west of town.
Looking at it closer it's about the same as 0z. Maybe higher amounts a bit further east. Noise.
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