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Post by Tilawn on Jan 10, 2019 6:34:24 GMT -6
Pretty dry air out there this morning. 20* and not a bit of frost at my place this morning.
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Jan 10, 2019 6:34:58 GMT -6
None at mine either Tilawn.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 10, 2019 6:37:04 GMT -6
NWS Paducah has Perryville going snow to rain to snow still with nice accumulations. Idk what to think about that...hopefully we keep the subtle colder trends here. NWS PAD is not known for their winter weather expertise, no offense.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 10, 2019 6:40:22 GMT -6
Anyone still have that MO/IL blank counties map that has the cities located on it? I bought a new PC last year and I no longer have access to that map no more and I can't seem to find it online.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 10, 2019 6:40:32 GMT -6
There's frost on some of the cars at the hotel. lol.
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 10, 2019 6:49:16 GMT -6
There are already over 100 guests lurking on the forum and it's not even 7am yet.
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 10, 2019 6:53:18 GMT -6
There are already over 100 guests lurking on the forum and it's not even 7am yet. Mama, we made it. |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 10, 2019 6:53:58 GMT -6
I know you guys are focused up there more, but what do you think about down here where nobody lives? Hoping the 3K NAM is right...
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Post by ComoEsJn on Jan 10, 2019 6:54:34 GMT -6
I'm hoping with as widespread as this is supposed to be that a lot of people on here who missed out on the Big Boy in March 2008, or the couple that we've had that came close since (one in 2011 I believe, plus the Palm Sunday storm in 2013) can cash in on their 1-footer this time. Seeing 14 inches in '08 was just unreal, and the snowfall rates that night were just unbelievable (BRTN can vouch for that, I remember).
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Post by REB on Jan 10, 2019 7:05:23 GMT -6
I’m so excited. Just have to move some wood. Enjoy my friends!
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Post by cozpregon on Jan 10, 2019 7:08:47 GMT -6
The true question we must ask- has WSC been the problem with us getting snow all these years.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 10, 2019 7:14:04 GMT -6
The true question we must ask- has WSC been the problem with us getting snow all these years. I mean, I'm happy for you guys...but I've seen maybe 5 inches of snow this year. I'm probably drinking on that 7am flight. Happy birthday to me lol |
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Post by shrapnel - Arnold, MO on Jan 10, 2019 7:17:14 GMT -6
Anyone still have that MO/IL blank counties map that has the cities located on it? I bought a new PC last year and I no longer have access to that map no more and I can't seem to find it online. There is a God. |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 10, 2019 7:17:16 GMT -6
Previously the storm was slated to come on shore today, so the 12z or the 00z models should be telling, imo.
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luvhockey
Junior Forecaster
Arnold MO 1/2 mile from the Meramec Mississippi confluence
Posts: 455 
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Post by luvhockey on Jan 10, 2019 7:18:40 GMT -6
NWS Paducah has Perryville going snow to rain to snow still with nice accumulations. Idk what to think about that...hopefully we keep the subtle colder trends here. NWS PAD is not known for their winter weather expertise, no offense. I'll be keeping an eye on your observations and others south of Arnold. Son and niece, among others heading back to SEMO Sunday noonish. Thanks in advance for any info. |
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Post by landscaper on Jan 10, 2019 7:42:29 GMT -6
What does the serf plume look like?
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 10, 2019 7:51:27 GMT -6
What does the serf plume look like? Mean is just under 6 inches at stl gor the 9z suite. |
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Post by birdsonthebat (MO'Fallon) on Jan 10, 2019 7:53:38 GMT -6
When does NWS get its first sampling’s of the system?
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Post by mchafin on Jan 10, 2019 7:55:02 GMT -6
Wasn’t the ICON the first model to point out the possibility of this storm for our area last weekend? Last night I reviewed the last several runs of the models, and I think you’re right. The Germans were the first one to preemptively strike. Like in the Pacific theatre in WWII. |
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Post by rb1108 on Jan 10, 2019 8:02:36 GMT -6
If today's model runs continue to print out these 12"+ totals, do you think the NWS will start increasing totals closer to it at the afternoon update? They seem very skeptical right now, which is understandable
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 10, 2019 8:08:40 GMT -6
12Z NAM coming in a bit slower for the start time, also looks a bit less robust.
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Post by jeepers on Jan 10, 2019 8:10:34 GMT -6
Slower start time like how slow
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jan 10, 2019 8:12:00 GMT -6
If today's model runs continue to print out these 12"+ totals, do you think the NWS will start increasing totals closer to it at the afternoon update? They seem very skeptical right now, which is understandable Chris has said in previous years that larger accumulation forecasts in this area are unlikely from the NWS. |
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Post by mchafin on Jan 10, 2019 8:12:12 GMT -6
When does NWS get its first sampling’s of the system? Looks like it’s making land fall now. Would the 12z models get that data? |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 10, 2019 8:12:29 GMT -6
Slower start time like how slow Like from 3PM to now 6 or 7PM. Definite southward shift as well, and again weaker so far. |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 10, 2019 8:13:00 GMT -6
Weatherfan- The nam is going to shift a little flatter and SE.
You will certainly like that.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 10, 2019 8:17:40 GMT -6
If the models that reflect the full sampling still have higher accums, i wld be less skeptical as well. But it has to be a full sampling. If accums go down, then our first question is whether the full sample did indeed take place. Personally, if i were nws i wld leave the forecast alone until tomorrow morning if qpf is high after full sampling cuz ppl are getting the msg already, imo. Its a long duration. Stores will be packed today and especially tonight. Bread milk and eggs will be nowhere to be found. Not much sensible difference between the 6 inches currently forecast vs 10 inches. Jmo.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 10, 2019 8:19:50 GMT -6
Looks like the heaviest snowfall rates have shifted slightly from 9PM to 9AM to the Wee Hours Saturday morning into Noon-ish. Looks like it will still be beefy in the end, but perhaps not as overcooked as previous runs. But still looks like a solid 4-8" by sunrise.
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Post by rb1108 on Jan 10, 2019 8:21:36 GMT -6
Looks like the heaviest snowfall rates have shifted slightly from 9PM to 9AM to the Wee Hours Saturday morning into Noon-ish. Looks like it will still be beefy in the end, but perhaps not as overcooked as previous runs. But still looks like a solid 4-8" by sunrise. This run hasnt fully sampled the storm yet, right? |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 10, 2019 8:22:17 GMT -6
Looks like the heaviest snowfall rates have shifted slightly from 9PM to 9AM to the Wee Hours Saturday morning into Noon-ish. Looks like it will still be beefy in the end, but perhaps not as overcooked as previous runs. But still looks like a solid 4-8" by sunrise. This run hasnt fully sampled the storm yet, right? correct. Only a partial sampling. 0Z should have it be largely if not fully sampled. |
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