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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 10, 2019 8:23:25 GMT -6
As skeptical as i am about the magnitude of the storm, if a weakening is happening on the models, that wld bear the question of whether the partial sampling may have contaminated. I do not know whether 12 or 00 will reflect full sampling. Sometimes partial data or data from multiple sources leaves gaps.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 10, 2019 8:24:07 GMT -6
Metro-east/Southwestern Illinois looks like the big winners with the 12Z NAM. I'm actually not surprised by this at all.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 10, 2019 8:27:51 GMT -6
Rain is now an issue, but it looks like the immediate metro and metro-east should stay mostly snow, but areas south of that might have some issues.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 10, 2019 8:28:02 GMT -6
I am still in the 4 to 8 camp with my back yard at 4 or 5.
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Post by ComoEsJn on Jan 10, 2019 8:30:08 GMT -6
and here we go....
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 10, 2019 8:30:22 GMT -6
NAM really holding on to that moderate/heavy precip over the metro this run. Looks like the NAM might actually come in even wetter/beefier than expected.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 10, 2019 8:31:14 GMT -6
southern/southeastern metro including Jeffco, Monroe, and St. Clair is gonna be loving this run. As friv would say... it goes BOOM!
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Post by ComoEsJn on Jan 10, 2019 8:32:16 GMT -6
so many mixed message posts about this one run of the NAM, lol
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 10, 2019 8:32:51 GMT -6
6PM it's still snow/precipitating moderately to heavy but that rain is getting very, very close to the metro by than.
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Post by mchafin on Jan 10, 2019 8:33:43 GMT -6
I’m seeing that rain line creep right into the southern edge of the immediate metro by hour 60, after having dropped a decent amount of snow. Errrr
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 10, 2019 8:33:47 GMT -6
1.25 to 1.35" QPF up to hour 60 and it's still not done.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 10, 2019 8:34:43 GMT -6
I that algorithm shows it as rain. But 850s are cold enough for snow. I doubt its rain.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 10, 2019 8:35:16 GMT -6
1.5" QPF by hour 63.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 10, 2019 8:35:42 GMT -6
I that algorithm shows it as rain. But 850s are cold enough for snow. I doubt its rain. Probably some very wet near hamsters probably. |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 10, 2019 8:36:52 GMT -6
Switches back over to snow at 12AM Sunday, deformation zone forms and it looks like another smaller but still decent Boom right over the metro.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 10, 2019 8:37:14 GMT -6
so many mixed message posts about this one run of the NAM, lol Jeezus |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 10, 2019 8:37:31 GMT -6
1.7" QPF by 3AM Sunday. This is getting absolutely insane.
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Post by ComoEsJn on Jan 10, 2019 8:38:19 GMT -6
so many mixed message posts about this one run of the NAM, lol Jeezus FYI, that wasn't me panicking, that was me chuckling over the near-hysteria |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 10, 2019 8:38:33 GMT -6
Weatherfan- The nam is going to shift a little flatter and SE. You will certainly like that. I do like it...also like that you referred to me by my original name lol. |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 10, 2019 8:38:34 GMT -6
Accumulating precip departs by 6AM sunday, 1.8 to 2" QPF up to that point. Bullseye in central Jefferson County with 2.05". With a secondary Bullseye right on my house in west Belleville with 1.9 to 1.95" QPF.
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Post by landscaper on Jan 10, 2019 8:39:06 GMT -6
Very slow movement in the storm, I love it
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 10, 2019 8:39:23 GMT -6
Nam is huge for all
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 10, 2019 8:40:26 GMT -6
Well 12 to 18 for the metro is a Kaboom. Good lord.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 10, 2019 8:41:07 GMT -6
What's the most critical temp to look at in this scenario? 850 mb? If that stays under freezing does snow usually result?
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 10, 2019 8:41:30 GMT -6
10:1 snowfall from NAM is 13-16" metro-wide but a snow depth of only around 5.5 to 6"... Interesting. Kuchera is a bit less but still around 13-14".
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 10, 2019 8:41:38 GMT -6
That rain it was showing is non existant
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 10, 2019 8:43:18 GMT -6
700MB and 850MB center tracks are textbook perfect for us. 500MB still a bit north, but not too far off.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 10, 2019 8:44:05 GMT -6
I that algorithm shows it as rain. But 850s are cold enough for snow. I doubt its rain. Probably some very wet near hamsters probably. Probably not hamsters with drizzle. |
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Post by jeffcobeeman on Jan 10, 2019 8:44:20 GMT -6
1. Someone notices the possibility of a potent storm moving thru the area in 7-10 days.
2. 3-4 days are spent pointing out that off-hour runs are stupid and useless and throwing out any model that doesn't appear to confirm accumulating snow along the I-70 and I-44 corridor.
3. 2-3 days are spent trying to determine what the heck the I-44 and I-70 corridor actually means.
4. During the same period, every registered user askes the handful of posters who actually understand the models how much snow will fall at their nearest cross-street - and they ask 6-10 times after each model run.
5. System will be compared to every big snow event in the last 28 years (I don't think anyone every compares to an event before THE BLIZZARD OF '82 (note all caps)).
6. As the system approaches, people who may (or may not) know what they are talking about post accumulation maps.
7. Each registered user bemoans the fact that the system is missing them by 50 miles.
8. System actually comes on shore, completely throwing all models into chaos. (This is also when terms like "nowcasting" begin to be used and "discos" from other NWS offices begin to show up regularly.)
9. Users again frantically try to determine how much will fall at their cross street.
10. System hits Texas and Oklahoma. Every user gives up hope of seeing any snow at all (24 hours earlier, the models indicated 6-8 inches at their cross-street.)
11. Users try not to use off-color language to indicate their frustration with not getting any snow at all.
12. 95% of users watch in horror as 5% of users begin to post photos of snow actually falling on one of the requested cross-streets. (Does any of the other old timers miss the pictures of Rosie's feet??)
13. System pjazzes to the North/South/East/West and bombs out on someone else. Postings cease. Newbies are addicted......
14. New system shows up - See #1.
So... are we now at step 8? 
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 10, 2019 8:45:19 GMT -6
FYI, that wasn't me panicking, that was me chuckling over the near-hysteria Oh I completely agree. |
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