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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 10, 2019 8:46:03 GMT -6
12Z actually isn't that much of shift considering. But I probably jumped the gun a bit at the start due to the slower arrival of the best lift/dynamics. Get's there if not better in the end though.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 10, 2019 8:48:11 GMT -6
3KM version of the NAM keeps the rain/snow line still a bit south of the metro through 6PM Saturday the end of it's run.
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Post by The Commish- Lake St. Louis on Jan 10, 2019 8:49:02 GMT -6
I have no complaints with the NAM. I live a later start to have the bulk fall overnight when temps are really favorable. Let's just keep the ship steady into the port and we will all be very happy!
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Post by mchafin on Jan 10, 2019 8:49:13 GMT -6
Ha. Yes, step 8. Or as my favorite HBO VEEP character would say, “We are officially at DEFCON F***”
Sorry for the colorful language this early.
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 10, 2019 8:49:40 GMT -6
so many mixed message posts about this one run of the NAM, lol Jeezus NAM verbatim would be largest snow I've ever seen by 3-4" |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 10, 2019 8:52:01 GMT -6
IF someone could answer my 850 temp question I'd be greatly appreciated...hard to keep track as furious as the board is right now.
Also, are we officially at "diamond studded bone-crusher" status? That may be the most awesomely ridiculous term I've heard from friv over the years.
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Post by landscaper on Jan 10, 2019 8:53:03 GMT -6
Wow !!
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 10, 2019 8:53:13 GMT -6
That rain it was showing is non existant It's more or less a snow/drizzle line. Because the dgz dries out. It really means nothing. Because the storm is 95 percent over by then. The "backend" is a little dynamic so it's possible "real accumulation" takes place. But it won't matter much except to cap things off with mood snows into Sunday |
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Post by jeepers on Jan 10, 2019 8:53:32 GMT -6
Can't grok boom or even half of a boom.
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kkwhit
Weather Weenie
Ballwin, MO
Posts: 40 
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Post by kkwhit on Jan 10, 2019 8:59:19 GMT -6
Just back from Cancun and this is definitely the best possible return. I fully expected to come back and it be dull and gray, but this is nothing but dull!
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jan 10, 2019 9:01:23 GMT -6
1.7" QPF by 3AM Sunday. This is getting absolutely insane. If that came as all rain this would be a major problem for the rivers. |
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Post by dschreib on Jan 10, 2019 9:01:48 GMT -6
I that algorithm shows it as rain. But 850s are cold enough for snow. I doubt its rain. Sloppy flakes.
I'm getting a little...a little...less concerned about sleet after looking at the profiles. That dry air, though...
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 10, 2019 9:03:16 GMT -6
The initial thump on the NAM has shifted it's focus onto the I44 corridor and SWIL.
I'm talking the first 2-3 hours.
And as modeled it's intense.
With great snow growth would ramp up to heavy snow with large flakes.
Also as the main UL consolidates and passes us Saturday evening there is hints emerging of some really heavy bursts of snow with impressive Omega values.
The hires nam is further South overall and crushed the I44 corridor the hardest to the SE and after hour 60 would have impressive heavy snow along and South of 44/64.
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Post by The Commish- Lake St. Louis on Jan 10, 2019 9:10:08 GMT -6
I'm a little worried that this has not been "frivometer" worthy LOL Come on Friv, throw us a bone  (please note the sarcasm) Regardless, this will be a great storm to watch unfold. |
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 10, 2019 9:16:10 GMT -6
I'm a little worried that this has not been "frivometer" worthy LOL Come on Friv, throw us a bone I think every one is just shocked at how this has progressed. |
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Post by jmg378s on Jan 10, 2019 9:17:15 GMT -6
IF someone could answer my 850 temp question I'd be greatly appreciated...hard to keep track as furious as the board is right now. Also, are we officially at "diamond studded bone-crusher" status? That may be the most awesomely ridiculous term I've heard from friv over the years.
Honestly you should be looking at forecast soundings. And then note that the real profile will be warmer or cooler in spots and look a bit more squiggly than that. Saturation and lift can make a difference in precip type too. Anyway, a little warm wedge can hide anywhere in the lowest few kilometers. With low level southerly flow these little warm tongues can sometimes make it surprisingly far north and in oddly narrow corridors that models don't pick up on either.
Maybe the best first look would be the column max temp products. You can find that on Pivotalweather.com in the winter weather section.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 10, 2019 9:21:56 GMT -6
Rgem is good. Only goes out 48 hrs.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 10, 2019 9:23:13 GMT -6
IF someone could answer my 850 temp question I'd be greatly appreciated...hard to keep track as furious as the board is right now. Also, are we officially at "diamond studded bone-crusher" status? That may be the most awesomely ridiculous term I've heard from friv over the years.
Honestly you should be looking at forecast soundings. And then note that the real profile will be warmer or cooler in spots and look a bit more squiggly than that. Saturation and lift can make a difference in precip type too. Anyway, a little warm wedge can hide anywhere in the lowest few kilometers. With low level southerly flow these little warm tongues can sometimes make it surprisingly far north and in oddly narrow corridors that models don't pick up on either.
Maybe the best first look would be the column max temp products. You can find that on Pivotalweather.com in the winter weather section.
Thanks. With that being said, do you see it kicking to all rain for me at any point? |
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 10, 2019 9:23:28 GMT -6
If the euro and icon continue to show a foot plus for our area I thing the number will be upped to 7 to 11 by tonight for the nws
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 10, 2019 9:24:42 GMT -6
Also of this really pans out. Who cares what the rest of the winter does lol
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Post by mchafin on Jan 10, 2019 9:24:59 GMT -6
Newstalk 1120 is already at 6-10
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 10, 2019 9:30:06 GMT -6
Icon has over inch..well over . But the snow thing has like 6 or 7 inches.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 10, 2019 9:37:08 GMT -6
It's fun to look at these high QPF outputs but I'm just not sure this is the type of storm to crank out those kind of numbers. The long duration aspect of it and phasing makes it a possibility though and there is plenty of moisture. A lot of the blockbuster storms are associated with blocking and the omega block set up across the Intermountain West that carves out the shortwave/upper low will make this a slow mover with lots of energy diving into the backside of the trof. At this point I think double digits are definitely possible across parts of the area...probably favoring the metro/central CWA or maybe just S/SW if the WAM stays away. But I still think overall, 3-6/4-8 is a solid forecast.
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Post by mchafin on Jan 10, 2019 9:38:46 GMT -6
Icon has over inch..well over . But the snow thing has like 6 or 7 inches. Non-snow contamination? Plenty of moisture. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 10, 2019 9:43:38 GMT -6
GFS is looking beefier this run
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Post by mmarkillie82 on Jan 10, 2019 9:47:46 GMT -6
Im so worried for next 12 hrs. I feel like only place we can go it down
Fingers crossed... Oh and im supposed to fly in at 530 tomorrow! So i might actually be present.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 10, 2019 9:48:27 GMT -6
Solid hit of backside snow for the metro on this run on the GFS
Looks like 7-10” for the metro
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 10, 2019 9:49:43 GMT -6
Gfs is wetter
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Jan 10, 2019 9:50:49 GMT -6
Is that "Unionite" for moist? |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 10, 2019 9:52:00 GMT -6
GFS drops .99” of QPF for the metro
It’s joined the 1” QPF club finally
Pretty close to joining the 12” snow club as well
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(please note the sarcasm) Regardless, this will be a great storm to watch unfold.
