|
|
Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 10, 2019 9:55:20 GMT -6
I really hope I stay snow by some miracle...talk about borderline Saturday afternoon.
|
|
|
|
Post by bdgwx on Jan 10, 2019 9:55:41 GMT -6
The GFS is getting moister and moister. I'm a fan.
|
|
sullivanjohn
Wishcaster
Sullivan, MO
Posts: 141 
Snowfall Events: Code Monkey
|
Post by sullivanjohn on Jan 10, 2019 10:01:07 GMT -6
The GFS is getting moister and moister. I'm a fan.  |
|
|
|
Post by jmg378s on Jan 10, 2019 10:02:10 GMT -6
I really hope I stay snow by some miracle...talk about borderline Saturday afternoon.
Boy, I dunno. As much as it pains me to say, I think you're going to run into mixing problems. At the onset and probably on Saturday too. I don't know if you go to all rain, but staying all snow looks very iffy. I'm rooting for you though!
|
|
|
|
Post by The Commish- Lake St. Louis on Jan 10, 2019 10:06:15 GMT -6
GFS drops anywhere from .9 to 1.08 through the metro through hour 90. Good to see a lot more consensus on liquid and location. This one is getting exciting.
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 10, 2019 10:06:28 GMT -6
Ya I think anyone south of Farmington will have to deal with a lot of mixing issues and maybe even plain rain Saturday
|
|
|
|
Post by landscaper on Jan 10, 2019 10:08:10 GMT -6
I agree with you , unfortunately I think the southern areas will have mixing issues. How much that is still up in the air.
|
|
|
|
Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 10, 2019 10:08:18 GMT -6
Hard to imagine a period of heavy snow followed by rain, followed again by snow, but that's the NWS thinking for Perryville. Because of this my expectations will be tempered.
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowman99 on Jan 10, 2019 10:08:53 GMT -6
Gem well over an inch. Widespread foot amounts.
|
|
|
|
Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 10, 2019 10:09:00 GMT -6
The extended duration into Saturday night and early Sunday is being assisted by the jet at 300mb...and mutliple additional smaller shortwaves that zip through that flow. So there never is a strong midlevel or low level cyclone....just a well balancedand slowly translating swirl. Just the perfect balance between WAA and cold air, evap cooling and weak surface CAA to keep an area of snow focused on the north side of the polar jet.
The GFS seems to be catching on. It is pretty much right with the pack now in the WAA phase... but is still not too excited about the extra shortwaves and bonus snow that the NAM, Euro, etc. are latching on to that get us up to their high numbers.
Even if 12" falls, it seems very unlikely anyone will measure that much on the ground because of compaction...but it is possible. I also dont see this as being the wet slushy snow. The profiles appear cold enough to me to be kind of wet...but not ike Palm Sunday event.
Time is starting to run short for me. I have to hustle to get my son packed and hit the road back to Xavier tomorrow morning. He is bummed to miss the snow...but more so to lose a day at home. Work is bummed...they wanted me to come in...but I obviously had to say no. I will, however, be covering the storm from Cincinatti this weekend... both here and on facebook!
|
|
|
|
Post by dschreib on Jan 10, 2019 10:09:35 GMT -6
I'm going with the 4-6 IMBY. I've seen too many of these get slashed with dry air / warm air / subtle shifts / precip splits to go with anything more than that until after it's already on the ground. I'll gladly be wrong to the low side if it's going to happen.
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowman99 on Jan 10, 2019 10:12:02 GMT -6
Gem has 14 in st louis lol
|
|
|
|
Post by ComoEsJn on Jan 10, 2019 10:15:18 GMT -6
Dave still saying a mid-afternoon start time on his personal page, interesting
|
|
|
|
Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 10, 2019 10:15:19 GMT -6
It's fun to look at these high QPF outputs but I'm just not sure this is the type of storm to crank out those kind of numbers. The long duration aspect of it and phasing makes it a possibility though and there is plenty of moisture. A lot of the blockbuster storms are associated with blocking and the omega block set up across the Intermountain West that carves out the shortwave/upper low will make this a slow mover with lots of energy diving into the backside of the trof. At this point I think double digits are definitely possible across parts of the area...probably favoring the metro/central CWA or maybe just S/SW if the WAM stays away. But I still think overall, 3-6/4-8 is a solid forecast. You articulate my thoughts so well. Its like youve been in my head lol. This system had more of an inverted trough look mainly in the models i looked at which is a typical 3 to 6 or 4 to 8 outcome. |
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 10, 2019 10:17:09 GMT -6
Dave still saying a mid-afternoon start time on his personal page, interesting WAA events almost always start a few hours ahead of schedule
I think 3-5pm is a good start time
|
|
|
|
Post by SnowManJoe - Wentzville, MO on Jan 10, 2019 10:18:49 GMT -6
Dave still saying a mid-afternoon start time on his personal page, interesting He is still keeping his amounts on the conservative side as well. |
|
|
|
Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 10, 2019 10:28:53 GMT -6
Yeah compaction will impact on saturday with temps in the 30s even with light snow falling. Ive seen alot of counter opinions on that, but at best, the amount of snow on the ground will hold its own if snow is falling from 10 to 3, unless the intensity picks up drastically. But outside those times, then yeah snow falling can add to the total. Its going to be a wet snow. There will be snowmen built. Im not sure roads will be that bad though, except during the brief heavier snow showers. Not saying we shldnt be more careful out there; just saying this isnt going to impact us as much as 6 inch storms can and have in the past, assuming the proper manpower with snow removal is deployed. Now if we get into a 1 to 2 inch per hour shower, then road crews will fall behind but the temps should help temper that.
|
|
|
|
Post by birdsonthebat (MO'Fallon) on Jan 10, 2019 10:29:38 GMT -6
Dave still saying a mid-afternoon start time on his personal page, interesting He is still keeping his amounts on the conservative side as well. He is staying conservative, but Glenn went “all-in” last night! They are usually both conservative! |
|
|
|
Post by The Commish- Lake St. Louis on Jan 10, 2019 10:32:20 GMT -6
GDPS showing 1.25" through hour 72. which at 10:1 would be 13" of snow.
|
|
|
|
Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 10, 2019 10:44:28 GMT -6
I feel like for me on Saturday it's going to be one or the other. It is really hard for me to envision 4-6 inches of snow followed by a mix of rain and snow most of the day, followed by a change back to snow. I guess anything is possible but I've never seen such a thing.
|
|
|
|
Post by ndolan387 on Jan 10, 2019 10:44:46 GMT -6
Dave said on Facebook the models aren't picking up on the dry air Friday afternoon into the evening as well. The skew t on the GFS looks saturated through the whole column 6pm Friday where dendrites are forming. Anyone concerned about dry air at the start into the evening, cutting down on totals?
|
|
|
|
Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Jan 10, 2019 10:47:29 GMT -6
The extended duration into Saturday night and early Sunday is being assisted by the jet at 300mb...and mutliple additional smaller shortwaves that zip through that flow. So there never is a strong midlevel or low level cyclone....just a well balancedand slowly translating swirl. Just the perfect balance between WAA and cold air, evap cooling and weak surface CAA to keep an area of snow focused on the north side of the polar jet. The GFS seems to be catching on. It is pretty much right with the pack now in the WAA phase... but is still not too excited about the extra shortwaves and bonus snow that the NAM, Euro, etc. are latching on to that get us up to their high numbers. Even if 12" falls, it seems very unlikely anyone will measure that much on the ground because of compaction...but it is possible. I also dont see this as being the wet slushy snow. The profiles appear cold enough to me to be kind of wet...but not ike Palm Sunday event. Time is starting to run short for me. I have to hustle to get my son packed and hit the road back to Xavier tomorrow morning. He is bummed to miss the snow...but more so to lose a day at home. Work is bummed...they wanted me to come in...but I obviously had to say no. I will, however, be covering the storm from Cincinatti this weekend... both here and on facebook! Really wish you were on air for this one but glad you get some time off. Always a lot more exciting for everyone to see your forecasts. Glad you get to spend some time with your son though and relax and enjoy the storm from a window for a change though. |
|
|
|
Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jan 10, 2019 10:48:13 GMT -6
The extended duration into Saturday night and early Sunday is being assisted by the jet at 300mb...and mutliple additional smaller shortwaves that zip through that flow. So there never is a strong midlevel or low level cyclone....just a well balancedand slowly translating swirl. Just the perfect balance between WAA and cold air, evap cooling and weak surface CAA to keep an area of snow focused on the north side of the polar jet. The GFS seems to be catching on. It is pretty much right with the pack now in the WAA phase... but is still not too excited about the extra shortwaves and bonus snow that the NAM, Euro, etc. are latching on to that get us up to their high numbers. Even if 12" falls, it seems very unlikely anyone will measure that much on the ground because of compaction...but it is possible. I also dont see this as being the wet slushy snow. The profiles appear cold enough to me to be kind of wet...but not ike Palm Sunday event. Time is starting to run short for me. I have to hustle to get my son packed and hit the road back to Xavier tomorrow morning. He is bummed to miss the snow...but more so to lose a day at home. Work is bummed...they wanted me to come in...but I obviously had to say no. I will, however, be covering the storm from Cincinatti this weekend... both here and on facebook! You can report on what it's like trying to get back in to town so you can get back to work on Monday. |
|
|
|
Post by landscaper on Jan 10, 2019 10:49:35 GMT -6
Certain people on here are always WAY low on there snow predictions . It’s quite comical
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 10, 2019 10:49:38 GMT -6
Dave said on Facebook the models aren't picking up on the dry air Friday afternoon into the evening as well. The skew t on the GFS looks saturated through the whole column 6pm Friday where dendrites are forming. Anyone concerned about dry air at the start into the evening, cutting down on totals? Dry air will no doubt eat some of the precep tomorrow afternoon, but I dont think its going to hold the precep back for long. The amount of moisture with this system is incredible and will quickly erode away the dry air |
|
|
|
Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Jan 10, 2019 10:50:40 GMT -6
I’m sticking with my 5-8” and don’t see a reason to change.
|
|
mmkjmg
Weather Weenie
Posts: 21
|
Post by mmkjmg on Jan 10, 2019 10:52:42 GMT -6
The extended duration into Saturday night and early Sunday is being assisted by the jet at 300mb...and mutliple additional smaller shortwaves that zip through that flow. So there never is a strong midlevel or low level cyclone....just a well balancedand slowly translating swirl. Just the perfect balance between WAA and cold air, evap cooling and weak surface CAA to keep an area of snow focused on the north side of the polar jet. The GFS seems to be catching on. It is pretty much right with the pack now in the WAA phase... but is still not too excited about the extra shortwaves and bonus snow that the NAM, Euro, etc. are latching on to that get us up to their high numbers. Even if 12" falls, it seems very unlikely anyone will measure that much on the ground because of compaction...but it is possible. I also dont see this as being the wet slushy snow. The profiles appear cold enough to me to be kind of wet...but not ike Palm Sunday event. Time is starting to run short for me. I have to hustle to get my son packed and hit the road back to Xavier tomorrow morning. He is bummed to miss the snow...but more so to lose a day at home. Work is bummed...they wanted me to come in...but I obviously had to say no. I will, however, be covering the storm from Cincinatti this weekend... both here and on facebook! Safe travels to you and your son. My daughter is going to head to back to the University of Evansville tomorrow to be ahead of the weather also. |
|
|
|
Post by landscaper on Jan 10, 2019 10:52:46 GMT -6
Maybe breifly Friday at the onset dry air is an issue, but most models show moisture rapidly developing and pushing up I44. I think things saturate pretty quickly on the Missouri side the further north and east you go it will take more time.
|
|
|
|
Post by birdsonthebat (MO'Fallon) on Jan 10, 2019 10:52:52 GMT -6
In my humble and less than knowledgeable opinion.......any dry air should be overcome rather quickly. I don’t see any significant decrease in amounts.
As, Chris mentioned earlier he likes to subtract around 20%....looking at things with that thought process. (Given newest runs) We are looking at a solid 8-10” spread over the entire metro with pockets of higher amounts.
We have a very exciting system headed our way! But I am probably looking at it too emotionally!
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 10, 2019 10:55:35 GMT -6
Heres the NAM sounding tomorrow afternoon when the precep is moving into the area. Good amount of dry air 850 and below eating the precep but nothing crazy.  Heres 3 hours later. Fully saturates column with heavy snow falling  |
|
