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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 10, 2019 10:58:40 GMT -6
Dave said on Facebook the models aren't picking up on the dry air Friday afternoon into the evening as well. The skew t on the GFS looks saturated through the whole column 6pm Friday where dendrites are forming. Anyone concerned about dry air at the start into the evening, cutting down on totals? Dry air will no doubt eat some of the precep tomorrow afternoon, but I dont think its going to hold the precep back for long. The amount of moisture with this system is incredible and will quickly erode away the dry air I agree with you, the amount of moisture with this system is impressive! This makes me feel better, you saying that. |
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Post by jeffcobeeman on Jan 10, 2019 11:01:42 GMT -6
Im going with flurries IMBY, then no matter what I get, I cant be disappointed!  Im actually hoping the roads arent too bad Saturday morning because I would really like to get out and bow hunt this last weekend of the season. |
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 10, 2019 11:01:44 GMT -6
Heres the NAM sounding tomorrow afternoon when the precep is moving into the area. Good amount of dry air 850 and below eating the precep but nothing crazy.  Heres 3 hours later. Fully saturates column with heavy snow falling  The 3 hr later column is pretty on the NAM. Thanks for sharing! |
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Post by landscaper on Jan 10, 2019 11:01:55 GMT -6
Any updates on the 12z super gfs and the ukmet
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 10, 2019 11:05:27 GMT -6
Super GFS is 1.25-1.5 for immediate metro. Steady as she goes.
UK the same. Nice defo zone.
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Post by mchafin on Jan 10, 2019 11:08:41 GMT -6
I'm imagining a situation similar to the early 2000s when a massive snowstorm was to hit stl, but ran into a wall of dry air and the donut hole never collapsed and we were left with a sleet dusting. It was painful. I sat there and watched the local Met on the channel that rhymes with hive basically try to will the hole to close....only to be left with a lot of dead air space.
Please don't let that happen.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 10, 2019 11:09:26 GMT -6
The models are showing the accumulated snow being in good order for me here still, but the precip types switch to rain for a bit Saturday. What's the disconnect here? What exactly is factored into the predicted snowfall map? Can't be surface temps...must be the 850's.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 10, 2019 11:09:44 GMT -6
Looking at the isentropic charts for both GFS and NAM and they show a rough average of 3 to 4 g/kg... which over the duration of the storm should yield a ballpark 6-8" total.
They key to getting those bigger totals along I-70 is the "bonus" part of the storm later Saturday into Saturday night. If that doesn't line-up perfectly...then 8" is the max. If that does play out exactly as many of the models suggest...then we 10"+ totals are possible. I want to see the Euro and UK before I even consider making any changes...but in all likelihood I will just hold fast with 4-8" and mention some heavier amounts are possible along I-70.
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Post by birdsonthebat (MO'Fallon) on Jan 10, 2019 11:11:58 GMT -6
Im going with flurries IMBY, then no matter what I get, I cant be disappointed! Im actually hoping the roads arent too bad Saturday morning because I would really like to get out and bow hunt this last weekend of the season. I didn’t even think about bowhunting this weekend! As soon as I saw plowable amounts of snow.....my brain blacked out “last weekend of bow season!” I hope you can get out! Nothing better than hunting during a snowfall! |
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Post by landscaper on Jan 10, 2019 11:16:56 GMT -6
Thanks I just saw them. I bet EURO will look good as well, it’ and the GEM have been very consistent with the storm and the backside potential . I still like the 8-12” , it covers everything well
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 10, 2019 11:16:59 GMT -6
The dry wedge does not look too foreboding IMO. Current real world obs show surface Tds in the teens over the ohio valley (our source region) with little if any additional drying. Even a weaker LLJ should overcome that. If the airmass to our northeast was of a more truly arctic origin (single digit Tds) then I would be more concerned.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 10, 2019 11:24:05 GMT -6
I still think 4 to 8 for the region and the lower end of that imby. Higher amounts union and just hilly areas southwest of town
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 10, 2019 11:28:34 GMT -6
Lol.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 10, 2019 11:29:00 GMT -6
If that last sounding isn't a heavy hamster sounding I don't know what is.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 10, 2019 11:29:01 GMT -6
Can you guys think of a comparable system in terms of the amount of PACIFIC moisture streaming into this storm? We've seen it with big rainers in the spring but I sure don't remember it for a winter storm.
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Post by bear1 on Jan 10, 2019 11:29:36 GMT -6
Chris, check your messages when you have time.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 10, 2019 11:30:37 GMT -6
Heres the latest GEFS mean 7-10" for the metro  |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 10, 2019 11:31:51 GMT -6
Certain people on here are always WAY low on there snow predictions . It’s quite comical Just as many or more on the other end of the spectrum. A conservative approach usually wins out around here with snowfall. Now rain...that's a different story. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 10, 2019 11:32:54 GMT -6
Heres the latest GEFS mean 7-10" for the metro That's a thing of beauty. It's nice to have the ensembles showing the higher amounts. |
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Post by InstantWeatherMaps on Jan 10, 2019 11:38:05 GMT -6
Heres the latest GEFS mean 7-10" for the metro Sadly this is probably a better depiction of the GEFS's ratios (made with a proprietary algorithm inspired by Kuchera):  |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 10, 2019 11:38:56 GMT -6
I think 6-10" is a pretty solid forecast.
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 10, 2019 11:40:08 GMT -6
The 1" contour on the UKMET is pretty far north and extends well into IL. It looks like 1.2" with lollipops of 1.4" are near the metro area.  |
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Post by bear1 on Jan 10, 2019 11:40:28 GMT -6
Ok, Thanks for the reply Chris.  |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 10, 2019 11:52:14 GMT -6
Due to time constraints here at home... I"m pretty well settling on the idea of sticking with my 4-8". The higher totals all rely on the "bonus" part of the storm from Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning....which is my least confident part of the forecast. Once the storm comes completely ashore either later tonight or tomorrow morning... I will nudge the range upwards. But for now... I really like the idea of sticking with what I have...widespread 4" to 8" and mention the potential of the bonus snow Saturday night into Sunday that could add a few more inches to the final totals.
I did toy with the idea of bumping from 4" to 8" to 5" to 8" as I'm really confident now that the vast majority of the viewing area will end up with 5". But then again...why? The range covers it...and making an adjustment like that takes away from the public perception of confidence. I'm just going to hold the course.
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Post by birddog on Jan 10, 2019 11:52:21 GMT -6
So is this storm fully sampled now?
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 10, 2019 11:55:12 GMT -6
Heres the WPC 50 percentile forecast. From my understanding, that means there is a 50% chance totals will exceeded these values  |
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 10, 2019 12:02:44 GMT -6
Anyone with ameren have power go out? 15 minutes ago it just went poof. Anyone know anything?
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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Jan 10, 2019 12:05:24 GMT -6
Anyone with ameren have power go out? 15 minutes ago it just went poof. Anyone know anything? Weird it’s flicked on and off here twice but only for a second and that was like 30 mins ago. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 10, 2019 12:09:40 GMT -6
Euro is still super juiced with some monster totals
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 10, 2019 12:09:47 GMT -6
What does euro look like
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