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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 10, 2019 12:09:52 GMT -6
The dry wedge does not look too foreboding IMO. Current real world obs show surface Tds in the teens over the ohio valley (our source region) with little if any additional drying. Even a weaker LLJ should overcome that. If the airmass to our northeast was of a more truly arctic origin (single digit Tds) then I would be more concerned. This is a great analysis about the dry air, thanks for sharing! |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 10, 2019 12:11:38 GMT -6
Very similar to last nights massive run |
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Post by cozpregon on Jan 10, 2019 12:12:39 GMT -6
Think most see 6-9" by noon tomorrow... then light/moderate snow doesn't accumulate too much during the daylight Saturday- then maybe another couple inches tomorrow night. General 8-12" is what I will go with... with a few 12+" reports just W/SW of the metro.
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Post by cozpregon on Jan 10, 2019 12:14:13 GMT -6
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 10, 2019 12:15:46 GMT -6
Think most see 6-9" by noon tomorrow... then light/moderate snow doesn't accumulate too much during the daylight Saturday- then maybe another couple inches tomorrow night. General 8-12" is what I will go with... with a few 12+" reports just W/SW of the metro. *by noon Sat you mean? Good to hear your opinion! |
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Post by yypc on Jan 10, 2019 12:15:57 GMT -6
Think most see 6-9" by noon tomorrow... then light/moderate snow doesn't accumulate too much during the daylight Saturday- then maybe another couple inches tomorrow night. General 8-12" is what I will go with... with a few 12+" reports just W/SW of the metro. Wow, did the storm speed up? I thought it wasn't supposed to start until tomorrow afternoon. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 10, 2019 12:17:38 GMT -6
The euro is seriously just crazy. Almost everyone in the area gets a foot minimum
There are places just west of STL over 20"
The metro is buried under 10-15"
Farmington get 14"
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 10, 2019 12:18:20 GMT -6
The euro is seriously just crazy. Almost everyone in the area gets a foot minimum There are places just west of STL over 20" The metro is buried under 10-15" Farmington get 14" Wow! |
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Post by weatherj on Jan 10, 2019 12:19:11 GMT -6
Even over here a foot eh..lol
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Post by mmarkillie82 on Jan 10, 2019 12:19:20 GMT -6
Getting close to when we can start looking at the RAP right?
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 10, 2019 12:19:20 GMT -6
Here is another way to look at my thinking on potential amounts... It is very unlikely to be less than 4" Most likely to fall in the 4" to 8" (55%) But still a decent shot it could exceed 8" (35%)  |
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 10, 2019 12:21:21 GMT -6
Its really odd having every model over an inch qpf..some way over, and not have a single forecast even for 10 inches on the high side. This is disturbing. Hmm
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 10, 2019 12:21:32 GMT -6
I almost want to print out that euro run, frame it, and hang it up
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 10, 2019 12:23:15 GMT -6
Even over here a foot eh..lol eastern counties are more in the the 8-10" range but ya its alot of snow lol |
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Post by Labrat-O'Fallon IL on Jan 10, 2019 12:23:16 GMT -6
Reed Timmer is on his way, posted his driving route on Facebook. Going to hit STL before driving back east.
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Post by yypc on Jan 10, 2019 12:24:29 GMT -6
Its really odd having every model over an inch qpf..some way over, and not have a single forecast even for 10 inches on the high side. This is disturbing. Hmm The weather channel (gasp!) has us at 8-12" |
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Post by landscaper on Jan 10, 2019 12:26:04 GMT -6
I agree a little Brtn but we have had every model showing 1.00-1.8” qpf for multiple days , at some point the 3-6”and 4-8” forecast Are going to bumped up . At some point you have to not be so cautious and actually believe all the model data out there.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 10, 2019 12:28:30 GMT -6
Makes sense. Plenty of time to make meaningful adjustments but my hunch is at the end of the day most everyone will be in that range and ppl are getting the msg rt now with going forecasts. Wondering how the stores are doing rt now. Bet it gets really busy after the evening news/work. Hopefully the dam, wam, and all the other negating factors become clearer.
My response directed to chris post
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Post by cozpregon on Jan 10, 2019 12:29:20 GMT -6
Think most see 6-9" by noon tomorrow... then light/moderate snow doesn't accumulate too much during the daylight Saturday- then maybe another couple inches tomorrow night. General 8-12" is what I will go with... with a few 12+" reports just W/SW of the metro. *by noon Sat you mean? Good to hear your opinion! Yes... noon Saturday. And yes Saturday night too. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 10, 2019 12:31:11 GMT -6
I do think the euro is alittle overcooked, but even if you take off 20% across the board your still looking at 8-12" for much of the area
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Post by birdsonthebat (MO'Fallon) on Jan 10, 2019 12:32:50 GMT -6
Reed Timmer is on his way, posted his driving route on Facebook. Going to hit STL before driving back east. Nooooooo......we don’t want anyone coming here!!! This should be ours and ours alone! |
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Post by mchafin on Jan 10, 2019 12:34:20 GMT -6
I almost want to print out that euro run, frame it, and hang it up I may have missed it - but did any one post it? |
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Post by birdsonthebat (MO'Fallon) on Jan 10, 2019 12:34:22 GMT -6
Makes sense. Plenty of time to make meaningful adjustments but my hunch is at the end of the day most everyone will be in that range and ppl are getting the msg rt now with going forecasts. Wondering how the stores are doing rt now. Bet it gets really busy after the evening news/work. Hopefully the dam, wam, and all the other negating factors become clearer. My response directed to chris post I just left the Schnucks in Dardenne....the woman working said it was busy this morning and that the are calling in extra folks for tomorrow morning through the evening. |
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Post by cozpregon on Jan 10, 2019 12:35:02 GMT -6
Think most see 6-9" by noon tomorrow... then light/moderate snow doesn't accumulate too much during the daylight Saturday- then maybe another couple inches tomorrow night. General 8-12" is what I will go with... with a few 12+" reports just W/SW of the metro. 6-9" by noon tomorrow?? Do you mean Saturday? Yes... everything is for Saturday/Saturday night. |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 10, 2019 12:36:19 GMT -6
I agree a little Brtn but we have had every model showing 1.00-1.8” qpf for multiple days , at some point the 3-6”and 4-8” forecast Are going to bumped up . At some point you have to not be so cautious and actually believe all the model data out there. We will believe the model data when the energy is fully sampled. We will believe the satellite and reconnaisance derived model data when we see the longer ranges verifying better or when we have enough historical precedent to justify higher totals. This kind of system does not typically provided feet of snow. |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jan 10, 2019 12:36:40 GMT -6
Its really odd having every model over an inch qpf..some way over, and not have a single forecast even for 10 inches on the high side. This is disturbing. Hmm The weather channel (gasp!) has us at 8-12" A sure jinx. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 10, 2019 12:36:41 GMT -6
I almost want to print out that euro run, frame it, and hang it up I may have missed it - but did any one post it? Not allowed to post euro products on here. I think there's some free sites that allow you to view qpf |
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Post by mchafin on Jan 10, 2019 12:38:49 GMT -6
I may have missed it - but did any one post it? Not allowed to post euro products on here. I think there's some free sites that allow you to view qpf oh, yeah. Can someone create a quick picture of it? You know -- old school? |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 10, 2019 12:42:54 GMT -6
I thought this system was fully sampled for the 12z runs? The energy looks to be fully onshore
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 10, 2019 12:43:54 GMT -6
I'll ask again...how are the models maintaining snowfall totals down here with the apparent temp profile? What is in their equation that produces the snowfall product?
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