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Post by jeepers on Jan 10, 2019 12:44:43 GMT -6
I only have two questions:
Where is Dave Murray?
Where is Jim Cantore?
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 10, 2019 12:46:55 GMT -6
I agree a little Brtn but we have had every model showing 1.00-1.8” qpf for multiple days , at some point the 3-6”and 4-8” forecast Are going to bumped up . At some point you have to not be so cautious and actually believe all the model data out there. We will believe the model data when the energy is fully sampled. We will believe the satellite and reconnaisance derived model data when we see the longer ranges verifying better or when we have enough historical precedent to justify higher totals. This kind of system does not typically provided feet of snow. The system is fully sampled. It came ashore last night. |
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Post by Spaz(Wrestlerdude) on Jan 10, 2019 12:47:03 GMT -6
my point forecast from NWS shows if a total of 5-11.5 inches based on the ranges for each time frame through sunday evening...that's nuts. trying so hard to not get excited
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 10, 2019 12:47:59 GMT -6
Its really odd having every model over an inch qpf..some way over, and not have a single forecast even for 10 inches on the high side. This is disturbing. Hmm It is called being a good, careful, thoughtful forecaster. We already have a forecast of 4" to 8" ... that gets us where we need to be until the entire system is sampled. If the data still supports the bigger numbers...then I will bump mine up. But for now... 4" to 8" looks good. |
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Post by ComoEsJn on Jan 10, 2019 12:50:19 GMT -6
 In honor of Chris' bar graph, here's a pie graph of my favorite bars, and a bar graph of my favorite pies |
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Post by Spaz(Wrestlerdude) on Jan 10, 2019 12:50:28 GMT -6
Its really odd having every model over an inch qpf..some way over, and not have a single forecast even for 10 inches on the high side. This is disturbing. Hmm It is called being a good, careful, thoughtful forecaster. We already have a forecast of 4" to 8" ... that gets us where we need to be until the entire system is sampled. If the data still supports the bigger numbers...then I will bump mine up. But for now... 4" to 8" looks good. I think the NWS situation report that they started making does an EXCELLENT JOB of breaking things down by timing, range in snowfall total amounts and likelihood. Wish it was more advertised and pointed at for guidance to the public. www.weather.gov/media/lsx/sitreport/SitReport1.pdf |
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 10, 2019 12:50:49 GMT -6
Was it sampled or not. Some say yes some say no. Good grief. Lol
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 10, 2019 12:51:11 GMT -6
Actually...an important part of the puzzle is the ridging immediately behind the system...and the system west of that... I want more of that ahsore before I jump big.
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Post by bororug on Jan 10, 2019 12:52:36 GMT -6
The Euro is so beautiful. I don’t know that I’ve ever seen something like it being only 30 hours away from the start.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 10, 2019 12:52:53 GMT -6
We will believe the model data when the energy is fully sampled. We will believe the satellite and reconnaisance derived model data when we see the longer ranges verifying better or when we have enough historical precedent to justify higher totals. This kind of system does not typically provided feet of snow. The system is fully sampled. It came ashore last night. Please see chris post re fully sampled. |
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Post by unclesam6 on Jan 10, 2019 12:54:27 GMT -6
My understanding is that it's Weatherbell products that can't be posted, as they are a pay-for service. This is the graphic from weather.us which is a FREE-to-use website that all of us can access. Someone let me know if this is against the policy- puu.sh/CuCxN/ad8ba14304.png |
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Post by Spaz(Wrestlerdude) on Jan 10, 2019 12:55:34 GMT -6
The Euro is so beautiful. I don’t know that I’ve ever seen something like it being only 30 hours away from the start. Snowmegon...cough, I mean sleetmegedon |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jan 10, 2019 12:55:39 GMT -6
Not asking specifics. But just in generalities is there still another somewhat healthy system a week behind this one?
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Post by unclesam6 on Jan 10, 2019 12:56:17 GMT -6
Not asking specifics. But just in generalities is there still another somewhat healthy system a week behind this one? WE'RE ADDICTED, OMG. |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jan 10, 2019 13:00:57 GMT -6
Not asking specifics. But just in generalities is there still another somewhat healthy system a week behind this one? WE'RE ADDICTED, OMG. MORE!! MORE!!! MORE!!!!! A foot of snow isn't enough. This winter will be a dud with only a foot of snow in one storm. I want 10 feet!!!! MORE!!! |
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Post by jeepers on Jan 10, 2019 13:03:44 GMT -6
Seriously, if you're going to bother dumping a foot, why not three feet with blizzard winds? Is that asking for too much? I for one would apply to Ma Nature and say that she's been stingy for years and owes us big time. But that's just me.
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 10, 2019 13:04:55 GMT -6
From the analogs I think 2013-12-15 is the best from a computer+human(me) matching perspective. The low that day was 32F and the high was 35F. The metro area got 4" of snow with the higher amounts extending into IL and up to Chicago. Precipitation was about 0.50" or so. CIPS did have one big heavy hitter for MO. Every storm is different and no analog is perfect. I will remind people that Palm Sunday in 2013 had a low of 32F and a high of 41F. Nope, that's not a typo. The high at the airport really was 41F though it happened prior to the onset of snow. And the day before it was 58F. And yet the airport still recorded 12.4" snow with about 1.25" of precipitation. This is making me wonder if the snow depth products from the various models are too aggressive with melting/compaction. We should get a good test case out of this to see how effective that product is.
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 10, 2019 13:07:36 GMT -6
What is the RPM showing?
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Post by jeffcobeeman on Jan 10, 2019 13:11:52 GMT -6
So... is it gonna snow?
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 10, 2019 13:14:10 GMT -6
12Z NAM Cobb Output...
StnID: kstl Profile Thermal Adjust: 0.0 Cloud RH threshold: 85% Average Hourly Sounding: NO
Date/hour FHr Wind SfcT Ptype SR |Snow||Sleet|| FZRA|| QPF CumSR|TotSN||TotPL||TotZR|| TQPF S%| I%| L%
============================================================================================================================
190111/1900Z 31 14008KT 30.8F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0
190111/2000Z 32 13007KT 30.6F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0
190111/2100Z 33 14006KT 31.0F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0
190111/2200Z 34 13007KT 30.8F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0
190111/2300Z 35 14006KT 30.8F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0
190112/0000Z 36 13006KT 28.3F SNOW 11:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.050 11:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.05 100| 0| 0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
190112/0100Z 37 11007KT 28.3F SNOW 11:1| 1.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.121 11:1| 1.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.17 100| 0| 0
190112/0200Z 38 11008KT 28.1F SNOW 12:1| 1.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.114 12:1| 3.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.29 100| 0| 0
190112/0300Z 39 11009KT 28.1F SNOW 7:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.061 11:1| 3.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.35 100| 0| 0
190112/0400Z 40 11009KT 28.5F SNOW 9:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.025 11:1| 4.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.37 100| 0| 0
190112/0500Z 41 11008KT 28.8F SNOW 9:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.034 11:1| 4.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.41 100| 0| 0
190112/0600Z 42 11008KT 29.2F SNOW 7:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.041 10:1| 4.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.45 100| 0| 0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
190112/0700Z 43 11008KT 29.7F SNOW 10:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.040 10:1| 5.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.49 100| 0| 0
190112/0800Z 44 11008KT 30.1F SNOW 10:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.053 10:1| 5.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.54 100| 0| 0
190112/0900Z 45 11008KT 30.5F SNOW 10:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.061 10:1| 6.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.60 100| 0| 0
190112/1000Z 46 12008KT 31.0F SNOW 9:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.061 10:1| 6.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.66 100| 0| 0
190112/1100Z 47 12009KT 31.2F SNOW 7:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.046 10:1| 7.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.71 100| 0| 0
190112/1200Z 48 12009KT 31.5F SNOW 10:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.036 10:1| 7.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.74 100| 0| 0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
190112/1300Z 49 12008KT 31.7F SNOW 7:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.031 10:1| 7.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.77 100| 0| 0
190112/1400Z 50 11008KT 32.1F SNOW 8:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.047 10:1| 7.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.82 100| 0| 0
190112/1500Z 51 11009KT 32.4F SNOW 7:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.046 9:1| 8.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.87 90| 0| 10
190112/1600Z 52 11009KT 33.0F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.026 9:1| 8.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.89 76| 0| 24
190112/1700Z 53 11008KT 32.8F SNOW 10:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.036 9:1| 8.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.93 86| 0| 14
190112/1800Z 54 11007KT 32.8F SNOW 10:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.057 10:1| 9.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.99 86| 0| 14
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
190112/1900Z 55 11007KT 32.8F SNOW 11:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.059 10:1| 9.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.05 86| 0| 14
190112/2000Z 56 11007KT 32.6F SNOW 11:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.055 10:1| 10.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.10 88| 0| 12
190112/2100Z 57 11007KT 32.4F SNOW 11:1| 0.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.075 10:1| 11.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.17 90| 0| 10
190112/2200Z 58 10006KT 32.4F SNOW 13:1| 1.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.078 10:1| 12.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.25 90| 0| 10
190112/2300Z 59 08006KT 32.6F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.031 10:1| 12.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.28 79| 0| 21
190113/0000Z 60 08006KT 32.6F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.019 10:1| 12.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.30 79| 0| 21
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
190113/0100Z 61 07007KT 32.4F SNOW 12:1| 0.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.065 10:1| 12.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.37 89| 0| 11
190113/0200Z 62 07007KT 32.4F SNOW 6:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.119 10:1| 13.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.49 90| 0| 10
190113/0300Z 63 06006KT 32.4F SNOW 6:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.059 10:1| 14.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.54 90| 0| 10
190113/0400Z 64 05007KT 32.6F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.009 10:1| 14.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.55 79| 0| 21
190113/0500Z 65 04007KT 32.8F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 10:1| 14.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.55 0| 0| 0
190113/0600Z 66 03007KT 32.8F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.008 10:1| 14.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.56 77| 0| 23
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
190113/0700Z 67 03008KT 32.6F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.024 10:1| 14.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.59 79| 0| 21
190113/0800Z 68 02008KT 32.6F SNOW 14:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.031 10:1| 14.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.62 88| 0| 12
190113/0900Z 69 02008KT 32.6F SNOW 12:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.030 10:1| 14.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.65 88| 0| 12
190113/1000Z 70 02009KT 32.4F SNOW 6:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.021 10:1| 14.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.67 90| 0| 10
190113/1100Z 71 02009KT 32.3F SNOW 7:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.010 10:1| 15.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.68 100| 0| 0
190113/1200Z 72 02009KT 31.7F SNOW 7:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.005 10:1| 15.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.68 100| 0| 0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
190113/1300Z 73 01010KT 31.2F SNOW 7:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.004 10:1| 15.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.69 100| 0| 0
190113/1400Z 74 01010KT 31.2F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 10:1| 15.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.69 0| 0| 0
190113/1500Z 75 02010KT 31.7F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 10:1| 15.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.69 0| 0| 0
190113/1600Z 76 02009KT 32.1F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 10:1| 15.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.69 0| 0| 0
190113/1700Z 77 01009KT 32.6F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 10:1| 15.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.69 0| 0| 0
190113/1800Z 78 36008KT 32.6F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0
============================================================================================================================
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 10, 2019 13:16:39 GMT -6
I agree a little Brtn but we have had every model showing 1.00-1.8” qpf for multiple days , at some point the 3-6”and 4-8” forecast Are going to bumped up . At some point you have to not be so cautious and actually believe all the model data out there. You can't argue the consistency with the modeling...but you can argue that this system isn't your typical 8-12"+ storm. There's a lot more that goes into forecasting snowfall than model output... |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 10, 2019 13:17:04 GMT -6
15.1" lol
Even with some compaction Saturday that's a foot easily
A cumulative SR of 10:1 seems to be the way to go with this system
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 10, 2019 13:19:03 GMT -6
15z SREF Plumes average almost exactly .9 QPF.
7 members over 1. High of 1.62.
Low of .42.
Total snow not loading yet but looking at 3 hr totals will be close to a mean of 7.5
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 10, 2019 13:20:03 GMT -6
Actually...an important part of the puzzle is the ridging immediately behind the system...and the system west of that... I want more of that ahsore before I jump big. Well you aren't getting that until most of the snow has already fallen. Personally, I don't care how much anyone forecasts. I am not qualified to be a professional forecaster. But I am qualified to come to a decent personal opinion without just wishing and hoping I understand that most people in this community don't have a modest understanding of what's actually happening versus it's snowing, awesome. And thats fine. Who really cares I want everyone to enjoy themselves. I think that Cozpregans forecast is pretty spot on for what we know at this point. And I think if you were in his position your thoughts would be a lot closer to his. Personally, I think the first 6" are in the bank. And there can be arguements that SLRs and precipitation efficiency is underdone by the kuchura method because the column is being contaminated by being to close to 0C. However the column is Isothermal all the way to the DGZ. That typically is a sign of mini hamster's. |
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 10, 2019 13:25:17 GMT -6
I posted the Cobb output for the GFS, but I went ahead and deleted it. Something didn't look right with it.
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Post by ElKay23 - Columbia, IL on Jan 10, 2019 13:25:24 GMT -6
Makes sense. Plenty of time to make meaningful adjustments but my hunch is at the end of the day most everyone will be in that range and ppl are getting the msg rt now with going forecasts. Wondering how the stores are doing rt now. Bet it gets really busy after the evening news/work. Hopefully the dam, wam, and all the other negating factors become clearer. My response directed to chris post I just left the Schnucks in Dardenne....the woman working said it was busy this morning and that the are calling in extra folks for tomorrow morning through the evening. Just went to Whole Foods & it was a little busier than usual on a weekday lunch time, but not crazy. The cashier was talking about being busy without me bringing it up. She thinks it's just a lot of hype by the media and joked about the bread, milk & eggs. I did buy milk because I needed it. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 10, 2019 13:27:04 GMT -6
I posted the Cobb output for the GFS, but I went ahead and deleted it. Something didn't look right with it. Ya i was trying to figure out what was going on with that. It didn't seem to be carrying the totals over or something |
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 10, 2019 13:27:44 GMT -6
15.1" lol Even with some compaction Saturday that's a foot easily A cumulative SR of 10:1 seems to be the way to go with this system I'm pretty sure Cobb considers melting/compaction. I know it does in BUFKIT anyway. Anyone have BUFKIT installed? It's been like 5 years since I've used it so I don't have it installed on my laptop at the moment. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 10, 2019 13:29:11 GMT -6
The EPS mean for the metro has hit one foot.
Approaching 14" just SW of town.
Mean QPF is 1.2" for the metro
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 10, 2019 13:30:05 GMT -6
I posted the Cobb output for the GFS, but I went ahead and deleted it. Something didn't look right with it. Ya i was trying to figure out what was going on with that. It didn't seem to be carrying the totals over or something I thought it might have reset the totals because it thought there were 2 different storms. But trying to stitch the different batches together didn't add up either. Nevermind that it had 70-80% odds of SN on the backend part of the storm but put everything into the RA bucket anyway. I couldn't figure it out either. |
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