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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 10, 2019 13:31:45 GMT -6
12z EPS odds for the metro:
Chance of 6" or more: 99.9%
Chance of 12" or more: 20-40%
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 10, 2019 13:36:01 GMT -6
12z EPS odds for the metro: Chance of 6" or more: 99.9% Chance of 12" or more: 20-40% I'm sorry to report that the odds of 24" or more is 0%. Sorry everyone. Better luck next time. |
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Post by jmg378s on Jan 10, 2019 13:37:42 GMT -6
15.1" lol Even with some compaction Saturday that's a foot easily A cumulative SR of 10:1 seems to be the way to go with this system I'm pretty sure Cobb considers melting/compaction. I know it does in BUFKIT anyway. Anyone have BUFKIT installed? It's been like 5 years since I've used it so I don't have it installed on my laptop at the moment.
I have it installed. Use it pretty regularly for winter events.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 10, 2019 13:39:15 GMT -6
I like the trend by the models at the onset.
It's looking like by midnight tomorrow night the immediate metro will be around 5"
That's pretty furious.
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 10, 2019 13:47:21 GMT -6
Someone already mentioned, but I'm posting the screenshot for posterity. The SREF is showing 8". Note that I removed ARP3 because it was dud and I don't feel like duds are really on the table right now.  |
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Post by toddatfarmington on Jan 10, 2019 13:48:02 GMT -6
NWS STL has conference call scheduled for 3. I would expect to see some fresh graphics posted around that time based on previous calls.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 10, 2019 13:50:34 GMT -6
Someone already mentioned, but I'm posting the screenshot for posterity. The SREF is showing 8". Note that I removed ARP3 because it was dud and I don't feel like duds are really on the table right now. That's poor form the remove an outlier on one end of the spectrum but not the other. |
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stormspotter63640
Junior Forecaster
Farmington MO
Posts: 273 
Snowfall Events: 11/21/15. First flurries!!!
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Post by stormspotter63640 on Jan 10, 2019 13:56:13 GMT -6
KFAM Plumes at 1.2 mean qpf. 8” snow.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 10, 2019 13:59:28 GMT -6
Hopefully we can stay snow as long as possible my southern friends!
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 10, 2019 14:04:14 GMT -6
The rush hour tomorrow evening is looking pretty dicey. That looks like when heavy snow should be breaking out across the metro
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 10, 2019 14:07:34 GMT -6
Someone already mentioned, but I'm posting the screenshot for posterity. The SREF is showing 8". Note that I removed ARP3 because it was dud and I don't feel like duds are really on the table right now. That's poor form the remove an outlier on one end of the spectrum but not the other. Good point. I can't disagree with that. That would bring it down to 7". |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 10, 2019 14:08:00 GMT -6
18z nam sure looks like the EURO  . That first 6 hours at least should be very intense! |
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Post by foxrox on Jan 10, 2019 14:08:02 GMT -6
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 10, 2019 14:08:22 GMT -6
I just left the Schnucks in Dardenne....the woman working said it was busy this morning and that the are calling in extra folks for tomorrow morning through the evening. Just went to Whole Foods & it was a little busier than usual on a weekday lunch time, but not crazy. The cashier was talking about being busy without me bringing it up. She thinks it's just a lot of hype by the media and joked about the bread, milk & eggs. I did buy milk because I needed it. Im set for milk but i can use some more alcoholic beverages. |
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Bandit
Weather Weenie
Posts: 5
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Post by Bandit on Jan 10, 2019 14:10:42 GMT -6
How to get the phone number for the 3:00 pm conference call?
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 10, 2019 14:15:10 GMT -6
So I was waiting for the SREF to reevaluate my confidence on a 6" event at the airport. Based on the 12Z model runs and the 15Z SREF I'm willing to go medium confidence for a bona-fide winter storm (> 6"). And my call for the airport will be 5-9".
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 10, 2019 14:17:35 GMT -6
So I was waiting for the SREF to reevaluate my confidence on a 6" event at the airport. Based on the 12Z model runs and the 15Z SREF I'm willing to go medium confidence for a bona-fide winter storm (> 6"). And my call for the airport will be 5-9". Booooo..I need you to pull up a chair to the big boy table and start doing some high stakes betting lol |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 10, 2019 14:20:36 GMT -6
This NAM run might be one of the biggest we've seen around here
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 10, 2019 14:23:20 GMT -6
The NAM is super juicy. I have to be honest...some of these beef cake runs make me nervous about my 5-9" call.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 10, 2019 14:24:43 GMT -6
NAM has already surpassed 2.0" of QPF
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 10, 2019 14:27:14 GMT -6
The models are broken. I mean holy shnikeeys.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 10, 2019 14:30:27 GMT -6
The models are broken. I mean holy shnikeeys. The numbers and QPF just keep going up and up with the better data we get. Its ridiculous |
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Post by landscaper on Jan 10, 2019 14:30:38 GMT -6
Wow !
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 10, 2019 14:31:41 GMT -6
Ok, well, THAT happened. My 5-9" call is going to bust so bad if the NAM verifies.
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 10, 2019 14:37:14 GMT -6
I wonder how big the font will be when Friv sees that posts about it?
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 10, 2019 14:38:36 GMT -6
CIPS did have an analog that produced 2" of rain from 0.75" of PW. I could happen I suppose, but it doesn't seem likely.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 10, 2019 14:38:36 GMT -6
IM not even sure what to say. This is inside the NAMs reliability window and agrees with the EURO/EPS  |
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Post by Spaz(Wrestlerdude) on Jan 10, 2019 14:39:04 GMT -6
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 10, 2019 14:40:31 GMT -6
Hires nam is insane. Wow.
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 10, 2019 14:41:27 GMT -6
Davenport issued a Winter Weather Advisory.
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. That first 6 hours at least should be very intense!
