Chris's Corner - The Winter Break is About to End

Yeah, and 90% of the time when we need a north shift it doesn't happen. It's very tough to get a nice, widespread major winter storm with 6"+ amounts across the board. A couple degrees colder and this would have been an absolute monster, record shattering snow storm. It's still a huge storm in a fairly localized area though...1 in 25 year event in those areas, IMO.

A quick check of the gfs...Good point from another poster on the climatological odds of seeing two high impact storms a week a part. I would normally be the first to dismiss the possibility of a high impact storm next weekend for that reason. However, this year is different. I'm a little apprehensive that the push of cold air may be underdone on the GFS and that this could suppress next weekend further south, but the gfs models have been fairly consistent with a mid ms storm system. QPF is a lot lower with the next storm system, but that's because the upper level low is more of an open wave that moves through. I'm very much interested in next Friday and Saturday for another potential high impact system, and I continue to be interested in the very active wx pattern for the following week as well before a big dome of high pressure dominates the mid section suppressing any southern stream activity for the remainder of the month. Why do I think this year is different? we are locked in a pattern of repeat southern storm systems. The transition of the arctic air mass in the pattern change has been shown to be gradual, with a two steps forward/one step back kind of progress. There are differences with this next storm: more cold air, storm moving a bit faster from the southern plains, and a stronger high pressure which will mean more winds that will likely bring us more of a drifting of the snow. It's a system of interest to me, but if it doesn't work out, there's more upstream.

I made French toast because I was going to make pancakes and discovered I was out of flour and didn't have enough sugar.  I did have enough sugar and vanilla for French toast though.

Beaker, I think you are right about late month and February...I think we are in for a potentially severe stretch of winter weather and this storm is just the appetizer.

Couple of shortwaves in the trough... think the HRRR is focusing on a band of snow with the shortwave coming up from Springfield/Branson.

History shows us that we get big snows in February during winters like this...weak el nino and an active southern stream.  We may have a brief break toward the end of January but that will be because cold will suppress the storm track and places like cgi and pah will be in the spotlight; but as the storm track begins to seasonally migrate back north and it will, the migration will be very slow, as it fights infusions of cold, and I am seeing multiple shots of storms through the mid section.

beaker have you gotten much since this morning?

I too have had several periods of decent snow. Even right now I have large flakes but it's just not adding up. I've had 1" or less since 8am.

It's 33F at my house.

How far south does the snow get with the RAP

Looks like they’ll be playing football in light snow in KC.

my depth has stayed the same.  I'm guessing compaction is fighting whatever is fallen.  That's why my storm total turned into an estimate of 11 inches.  I can kind of tell the fresh snow because it is fluffier.  I agree, no more than an inch though even though I've had a couple brief intense showers.

Time of day  should help a lot. I think it'll stick..if it happens

Big flakes literally pouring now...some of the heaviest snow Ive seen during this event.

Big Flakes here in Ferguson now.