|
|
Post by landscaper on Jan 15, 2019 11:10:12 GMT -6
It’s nice to see temps not rising much, still below freezing. The NAM is doing the best job with temps right now
|
|
|
|
Post by landscaper on Jan 15, 2019 11:14:44 GMT -6
Could Someone post the Ukmet and super gfs once they come out.
|
|
|
|
Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 15, 2019 11:38:36 GMT -6
Impressive run if the 12z gfs would make january historic, imo. Makes me comfortable that winter is here to stay. If you want some fun check it out, but then say to yourselves, "if only it werent the gfs". Its the rapid fire of energy that im impressed with with nearly all snow, and lots of it....we wld all be like how austria is living now with their snows and avalanches over there.
|
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 15, 2019 11:44:46 GMT -6
Impressive run if the 12z gfs would make january historic, imo. Makes me comfortable that winter is here to stay. If you want some fun check it out, but then say to yourselves, "if only it werent the gfs". Its the rapid fire of energy that im impressed with with nearly all snow, and lots of it....we wld all be like how austria is living now with their snows and avalanches over there. IMO...what's been going on in parts of Europe/Eurasia is an alarm going off for North America. They often get the hardcore winter pattern before us after a SSW event. It looks like it's our turn! |
|
|
|
Post by jmg378s on Jan 15, 2019 11:45:16 GMT -6
UKMET was more or less similar with key features compared to its 0z run, but a bit stronger and juicier too. As with the previous run deformation zone sets up south of I44. No idea about temps but I'm guessing a lot of that front end QPF was plain rain or sleet further to the north then some decent snow along or a bit south of I44.
|
|
|
|
Post by rb1108 on Jan 15, 2019 11:45:57 GMT -6
Are Super gfs and UKmet meh? Slow to post, lol.
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 15, 2019 12:01:43 GMT -6
Are Super gfs and UKmet meh? Slow to post, lol. Super GFS had some backside snow but was rather dry overall. I think it hit the southerns pretty good though |
|
|
|
Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Jan 15, 2019 12:01:47 GMT -6
Are Super gfs and UKmet meh? Slow to post, lol. It’s just kind of a mess if you ask me. I doubt a band of that much winter precip sets up that far south in MO. It’s kind of messy looking and not really fitting to what I think will end up being a system further north especially north of I-70 compared to the last one. But check it out for yourself:  |
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 15, 2019 12:08:24 GMT -6
Ive noticed alot of the models are generating erratic and irregular snowfields with this system. Likely a result of the system getting sheared as it heads east
|
|
|
|
Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 15, 2019 12:10:11 GMT -6
Well that fits st louis climate with snowfall maxima north of metro and south of metro lol - book it, Dano!
|
|
|
|
Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 15, 2019 12:10:41 GMT -6
Has a lot to do with the multiple 850 centers that migrate up the baroclinic zone. Instead of one solid cohesive center its multiple weaker ones
|
|
|
|
Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Jan 15, 2019 12:18:20 GMT -6
Ive noticed alot of the models are generating erratic and irregular snowfields with this system. Likely a result of the system getting sheared as it heads east Anybody thought if the models are suffering from feedback error especially the GFS’s?!? Just something I thought about given we have 3 different storm systems out there only a couple of days from each other and the model may be having some issues segregating so much energy that it’s not used to handling all at once that close in timing. Just a thought |
|
|
|
Post by Tilawn on Jan 15, 2019 12:20:50 GMT -6
I’m just fine if this one misses me. Driver quit in midst of this last one and left me high and dry. Can’t find another driver so now I’m in the middle of terminating some contracts and or finding another provider to take it over for them. After setting in the truck for 55 hours straight and being up 68 over the weekend spring can get sooner then later 😊
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 15, 2019 12:28:00 GMT -6
Euro sets up the strongest backside band along and ~60 miles south of 44 this run. Buts its been jumping around the last few runs. Either way everyone in the viewing area gets 3"+ with some very strong backside winds gusting to near 50mph
|
|
|
|
Post by landscaper on Jan 15, 2019 12:28:31 GMT -6
12z Euro looks like it’s taking a good track , I can’t tell precipitation types or amounts yet
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 15, 2019 12:32:06 GMT -6
Euro is dropping some pretty decent snow all the way into central Arkansas this run
STG, I think I might have been premature to rule the southerners out on this one
|
|
|
|
Post by landscaper on Jan 15, 2019 12:35:31 GMT -6
Snow what does it show for the metro area?
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 15, 2019 12:38:46 GMT -6
Snow what does it show for the metro area? 4-8" |
|
|
|
Post by bororug on Jan 15, 2019 12:40:37 GMT -6
This current snowpack is holding strong. Another day of what seems like not a lot of melting.
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 15, 2019 12:41:33 GMT -6
It does show a period of freezing rain/sleet between the change over from rain to snow as well
When you add everything up that's a pretty nasty winter storm
|
|
|
|
Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 15, 2019 12:56:33 GMT -6
Hmm...yea I'll take that haha. Only reason is because its the Euro. Otherwise I would write it off as model noise at this range. But that thing has been awesome. And...it shows what I want so there's that.
|
|
|
|
Post by landscaper on Jan 15, 2019 12:58:20 GMT -6
My first guess for the metro based on the current models would be some cold rain Friday night followed by ..10-.25” of sleet/zr then 3-6” of snow. I think the change over time will likely occur 5-10am Saturday morning, snow ending Saturday evening 10pm-2am this is not for the southern or northern folks, just the heart of the metro. I think ratios could be decent the last few hours of the def band. The high winds and crashing temps will make this a pretty strong storm. This combined with existing snow cover should make for a pretty cool storm to track.
|
|
|
|
Post by mosue56 on Jan 15, 2019 13:09:57 GMT -6
How many times have we said how great it’d be to have a snow on snow? It doesn’t happen very often! It’d be cool to see!
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 15, 2019 13:14:36 GMT -6
Measuring the snowfall on the backside of this system will be next to impossible. It might start out as a wet sticky snow but then quickly transition to a dry snow that is going to be blowing everywhere. How much snow falls from the sky does matter, but don't zero in on amounts too much
|
|
|
|
Post by ams3389 on Jan 15, 2019 13:16:02 GMT -6
What kind of driver you need? I’m just fine if this one misses me. Driver quit in midst of this last one and left me high and dry. Can’t find another driver so now I’m in the middle of terminating some contracts and or finding another provider to take it over for them. After setting in the truck for 55 hours straight and being up 68 over the weekend spring can get sooner then later 😊 |
|
|
|
Post by John G -west belleville on Jan 15, 2019 13:20:56 GMT -6
I’m just fine if this one misses me. Driver quit in midst of this last one and left me high and dry. Can’t find another driver so now I’m in the middle of terminating some contracts and or finding another provider to take it over for them. After setting in the truck for 55 hours straight and being up 68 over the weekend spring can get sooner then later 😊 Man that sucks. To bad you're an hour away. I have just been doing residential for myself with each storm with blowers |
|
|
|
Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 15, 2019 13:23:22 GMT -6
How do the ensembles look?
|
|
|
|
Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jan 15, 2019 13:33:35 GMT -6
This current snowpack is holding strong. Another day of what seems like not a lot of melting. Unless we get some sun before the weekend I think it's still going to be hanging around. At least 3-4" around here still by the weekend.
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 15, 2019 13:33:47 GMT -6
How do the ensembles look? EPS is basically the same as last night. Showing a mean of 3-4” in the metro and 1-2” in the southern counties. Keep in mind the ensemble mean smooths everything out so it won’t be able to show any backside banding which it looks like will happen |
|
|
|
Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jan 15, 2019 13:39:18 GMT -6
I’m just fine if this one misses me. Driver quit in midst of this last one and left me high and dry. Can’t find another driver so now I’m in the middle of terminating some contracts and or finding another provider to take it over for them. After setting in the truck for 55 hours straight and being up 68 over the weekend spring can get sooner then later 😊 Don't know if it'll get any results but I just put out a feeler at my church to see if there's anyone who might be interested |
|
