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Post by Tilawn on Jan 15, 2019 13:51:36 GMT -6
Getting a driver for plowing snow isn’t just a matter of going getting somebody that can drive. It’s a matter of First in for most the driver needs to have a CDL drivers license and then be on my insurance policy and then also need to know the route the lots layouts etc. I’m already in the process of talking to clients and helping them get other providers for certain ones
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Post by rb1108 on Jan 15, 2019 13:56:14 GMT -6
A blizzard watch/warning would be fascinating to have after last weekend's major storm. Though, I feel like the STL NWS would be really reluctant to issue one, even with the current wind potential.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jan 15, 2019 14:05:04 GMT -6
Getting a driver for plowing snow isn’t just a matter of going getting somebody that can drive. It’s a matter of First in for most the driver needs to have a CDL drivers license and then be on my insurance policy and then also need to know the route the lots layouts etc. I’m already in the process of talking to clients and helping them get other providers for certain ones Doesn't sound real promising anyway.Sorry I couldn't be of help. |
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Post by maddogchief on Jan 15, 2019 14:09:15 GMT -6
A blizzard watch/warning would be fascinating to have after last weekend's major storm. Though, I feel like the STL NWS would be really reluctant to issue one, even with the current wind potential. Reluctant, I hope so. |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 15, 2019 14:17:06 GMT -6
It would take a lot for a blizzard warning around here. The EURO would come damn close if not there. Does the Euro have a strong wind bias? I noticed it's much stronger with them than the GFS.
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Post by unclesam6 on Jan 15, 2019 14:17:58 GMT -6
they certainly didn't hold back in November. I don't think we ever hit true blizzard here.
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 15, 2019 14:18:39 GMT -6
A blizzard watch/warning would be fascinating to have after last weekend's major storm. Though, I feel like the STL NWS would be really reluctant to issue one, even with the current wind potential. I think it was mentioned that after the Groundhog Day storm in 2011 the STL office said something along the lines of it would require high confidence in an unprecedented (or nearly so) event before they would consider a Blizzard Warning again. I think the Jan. 2014 storm is probably testament to the conviction of STL on this point so far. So unless there is a big surprise in the magnitude of this event or STL's mindset has changed then I very much doubt an official blizzard is in the cards for us on this one at least for the metro area. |
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Post by guyfromhecker on Jan 15, 2019 14:20:50 GMT -6
A blizzard watch/warning would be fascinating to have after last weekend's major storm. Though, I feel like the STL NWS would be really reluctant to issue one, even with the current wind potential. Reluctant, I hope so. As some have pointed out though the potential for the dry snow to have free reign to blow about if this current snow cover crusts over is very high. You get a couple or three inches of that on top of this with 45 mile an hour winds you can have whiteout conditions easily |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 15, 2019 14:21:27 GMT -6
FYI all models still show that wild super negatively tilted storm the middle of next week in one form or another. Adding to that, the GFS just gets stupid cold in the long range, as the PV slides even further south and west.  Time to cut some more wood on the farm. |
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Post by landscaper on Jan 15, 2019 14:23:04 GMT -6
I think everyone is wiped out from last weekends storm, we have the potential for a pretty good storm this weekend and there is definitely not the excitement like last week.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 15, 2019 14:24:17 GMT -6
I wld be surprised if there was even a button labelled blizzard in our wfo. That word carries regional connotations of something that is not going to happen.
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stormspotter63640
Junior Forecaster
Farmington MO
Posts: 273 
Snowfall Events: 11/21/15. First flurries!!!
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Post by stormspotter63640 on Jan 15, 2019 14:27:20 GMT -6
An Ozark Blizzard. Now that would be a sight to behold.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 15, 2019 14:28:07 GMT -6
Im not envisioning 3 hours of visibility less than quarter mile either. More intermittent visibility issues with the heavier snow showers.
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 15, 2019 14:28:55 GMT -6
Nam looks icy along 70 tomorrow night.
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Post by jeffcobeeman on Jan 15, 2019 14:33:28 GMT -6
There are some of us who would really like the Friday system to hit a few hours earlier. Not looking forward to an afternoon of meetings that usually don't amount to a hill of beans.  |
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Post by guyfromhecker on Jan 15, 2019 14:39:10 GMT -6
You don't even need falling snow to have blizzard conditions. How long are the winds expected to be strong as that passes?
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 15, 2019 14:48:39 GMT -6
12z gefs is pretty far north with its heaviest band.
There is still considerable variance in the members.
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Post by landscaper on Jan 15, 2019 14:52:36 GMT -6
World Series I think we need to ban you with your northern Chicago thoughts !
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Post by landscaper on Jan 15, 2019 14:53:20 GMT -6
I like the look of the 18z NAM
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 15, 2019 14:55:42 GMT -6
12z gefs is pretty far north with its heaviest band. There is still considerable variance in the members. Yep lots of variance in the ensemble members as well. There will be a heavy snow band on the front side of the system that looks to setup around the Mo/Ia border on into northern Illinois. The backside looks to be much trickier to forecast |
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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Jan 15, 2019 14:58:58 GMT -6
18z NAM could be a game changer if it holds course. Shows more cold air in the winter precip and a quicker changer over...along with organization further west with the Low in north TX vs. south central OK. At same 84hr timeframe...If we could get that solution to verify I’d think we’d have a much better chance here in the metro at 3”+ totals. But...it’s the 18z NAM at 84 hrs.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 15, 2019 15:01:29 GMT -6
You don't even need falling snow to have blizzard conditions. How long are the winds expected to be strong as that passes? Rt. But orographics make it difficult to achieve 3 hours of 35 mph winds in this part of the country. In flat areas yes. Im aware that you dont need falling snow. After the preceeding rain, the only snow that will be able to blow around, is the 1 to 3 or 2 to 4 inch snow that is falling on saturday. Even if it met blizzard criteria, its marginal with our geography, and i still point to the connotations. There is no status on watches and warnings. If they issue, so be it. |
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 15, 2019 15:05:31 GMT -6
The 2011 Groundhog Day storm is one of the top CIPS analog matches.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 15, 2019 15:06:56 GMT -6
Pretty encouraging trends with today's runs. Most models(except the goofy GFS) track the mid-level system further S across the Red River Valley and keep it closed as it passes to the S. The GFS is much more sheared. That puts us in a great position for backside snow and leaves more room for frozen precipitation on the front side.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 15, 2019 15:12:01 GMT -6
Blizzard conditions almost never verify outside of locals with wide open topography like central IL...that doesn't mean that blizzard warnings shouldn't be issued because the populated areas don't see those conditions. Personally I think this storm is a good contender for a blizzard warning for parts of the area. It's not too often you get a 1045mb+ ridge pushing into a deepening storm around here...
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Post by SnowManJoe - Wentzville, MO on Jan 15, 2019 15:16:32 GMT -6
WWA just went up for tonight into tomorrow. Wasn't expecting that.
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Post by SnowManJoe - Wentzville, MO on Jan 15, 2019 15:17:19 GMT -6
Adams IL-Audrain MO-Bond IL-Boone MO-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-
Callaway MO-Fayette IL-Greene IL-Jersey IL-Knox MO-Lewis MO-
Lincoln MO-Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion MO-Monroe MO-
Montgomery IL-Montgomery MO-Pike IL-Pike MO-Ralls MO-
Saint Charles MO-Saint Louis City MO-Saint Louis MO-Shelby MO-
Warren MO-
Including the cities of Alton, Bowling Green, Columbia,
Edwardsville, Fulton, Hannibal, Litchfield, Mexico,
Mount Sterling, Pittsfield, Quincy, Saint Charles, Saint Louis,
and Vandalia
312 PM CST Tue Jan 15 2019
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO
9 AM CST WEDNESDAY...
* WHAT...Freezing drizzle expected. Total ice accumulations of a
light glaze expected.
* WHERE...Portions of central, east central and northeast
Missouri and south central, southwest and west central
Illinois.
* WHEN...From 8 PM this evening to 9 AM CST Wednesday.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The hazardous conditions could impact
travel overnight and the morning commute.
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Jeke
Junior Forecaster
Old Jamestown, MO
Posts: 320
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Post by Jeke on Jan 15, 2019 15:19:09 GMT -6
I thought something was wrong with the warning systems.
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Post by Spaz(Wrestlerdude) on Jan 15, 2019 15:20:23 GMT -6
I thought it was a mistake also
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Post by guyfromhecker on Jan 15, 2019 15:22:05 GMT -6
Blizzard conditions almost never verify outside of locals with wide open topography like central IL...that doesn't mean that blizzard warnings shouldn't be issued because the populated areas don't see those conditions. Personally I think this storm is a good contender for a blizzard warning for parts of the area. It's not too often you get a 1045mb+ ridge pushing into a deepening storm around here... We have some areas around here I wouldn't touch with a 10-foot pole in 25-35 mile an hour winds with snow. We have a road called Paderborn Road that is flat as a pancake with farm field all around and changes angles several times so it's almost guaranteed to have some blowing and drifting somewhere. Of course that's not typical topography. St. Clair County has some spots though. Particularly south of Belleville |
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