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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 15, 2019 15:26:05 GMT -6
World Series I think we need to ban you with your northern Chicago thoughts ! I'm not wish casting lol. Just pointing out the models are considerably less locked in than last storm. |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jan 15, 2019 15:30:30 GMT -6
That stinking ice!
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 15, 2019 15:30:34 GMT -6
The trend of a stronger system is starting to become apparent. This will likely lead to a two component system...WAA which is likely rain for many of us. Then, where the surface low tracks is anyone's guess at this point. I'm still going with roughly the same areas that got it this last time. Euro keeps hope alive for us down here, but the trend is the trend.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 15, 2019 15:32:18 GMT -6
I got caught in the bootheel in a blizzard in 1985...flat land and you cldnt see ahead of you on I55. It was also unexpected. Memphis didnt come out with any warnings until things were already out of hand. Memphis picked up 12 inches. Cars just stopped on the interstate because the drivers couldnt see. Definitely a dangerous situation. Ppl shld not just stop in the middle of an interstate.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jan 15, 2019 15:36:37 GMT -6
The trend of a stronger system is starting to become apparent. This will likely lead to a two component system...WAA which is likely rain for many of us. Then, where the surface low tracks is anyone's guess at this point. I'm still going with roughly the same areas that got it this last time. Euro keeps hope alive for us down here, but the trend is the trend. Then we're back to the similarities to 1982 again. Any indication there will be any convection? |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 15, 2019 15:40:18 GMT -6
Im kind of surprised that next week the forecast warms up to 40. Idk with fresh powder...i didnt see anything remarkable to think it wld be 10 degrees warmer on tuesday. Yes i see a new storm developing, but not confident that it wld be rain at the onset. Does the euro show that?
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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Jan 15, 2019 15:40:24 GMT -6
Think the NWS issued this one to side with caution due to time of day, already wet roads/possible reference and to hope there is enough lead time to treat the roads so what happened on 44 there are no fingers to point. Certainly there not a lot to work with frozen wise with the storm but light glazed do cause major problems especially over .15”.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 15, 2019 15:43:33 GMT -6
The trend of a stronger system is starting to become apparent. This will likely lead to a two component system...WAA which is likely rain for many of us. Then, where the surface low tracks is anyone's guess at this point. I'm still going with roughly the same areas that got it this last time. Euro keeps hope alive for us down here, but the trend is the trend. Then we're back to the similarities to 1982 again. Any indication there will be any convection? I haven't looked at any soundings yet but this storm looks like it could support possible convection from a synoptic standpoint...strong thermal gradient with lots of deep moisture being pushed over it and cooling mid-level temps as the upper system approaches. I would expect some thunder potential near the transition from warm conveyor to cold sector as the dry slot tries to punch in. But like I said, that's merely a conceptual guess...not based on soundings or CAPE/EPV forecasts. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 15, 2019 15:46:43 GMT -6
Nws has 1to 3 inches now on friday night. Huh.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 15, 2019 15:48:50 GMT -6
Nws has 1to 3 inches now on friday night. Huh. Sounds like they are siding with a colder/S track. Have to say it's nice to have the Ukie quite a bit south of other guidance...that makes me think a significant shift north is unlikely at this point...but we'll see. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 15, 2019 15:49:18 GMT -6
Nws has 1to 3 inches now on friday night. Huh. I noticed they have rain and snow transitioning to snow Friday night. Kind of curious why they think this. Would think the mid level WAA would keep it rain or ice until Saturday |
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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Jan 15, 2019 15:49:49 GMT -6
Nws has 1to 3 inches now on friday night. Huh. Who’s running the ship over there today?!? |
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Post by mchafin on Jan 15, 2019 15:49:57 GMT -6
Nws has 1to 3 inches now on friday night. Huh. Sounds like they are siding with a colder/S track. Have to say it's nice to have the Ukie quite a bit south of other guidance...that makes me think a significant shift north is unlikely at this point...but we'll see. Plus more snow coming: .SATURDAY...Windy, snow. High in the mid 30s. Temperature falling into the 20s. Chance of snow 90 percent. .SATURDAY NIGHT...Windy. Much colder. Snow likely. Low around 10. Chance of snow 60 percent. |
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Post by rb1108 on Jan 15, 2019 15:55:13 GMT -6
NWS has my high for friday at 39* now. It has gone down....are they thinking it will be colder on Friday now I wonder?
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jan 15, 2019 15:55:37 GMT -6
Then we're back to the similarities to 1982 again. Any indication there will be any convection? I haven't looked at any soundings yet but this storm looks like it could support possible convection from a synoptic standpoint...strong thermal gradient with lots of deep moisture being pushed over it and cooling mid-level temps as the upper system approaches. I would expect some thunder potential near the transition from warm conveyor to cold sector as the dry slot tries to punch in. But like I said, that's merely a conceptual guess...not based on soundings or CAPE/EPV forecasts. I'm not nearly knowledgeable as you. But I was kinda'thinking a good many of the ingredients would be present. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 15, 2019 16:02:39 GMT -6
18z gfs is north...
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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Jan 15, 2019 16:03:54 GMT -6
Sounds like they are siding with a colder/S track. Have to say it's nice to have the Ukie quite a bit south of other guidance...that makes me think a significant shift north is unlikely at this point...but we'll see. Plus more snow coming: .SATURDAY...Windy, snow. High in the mid 30s. Temperature falling into the 20s. Chance of snow 90 percent. .SATURDAY NIGHT...Windy. Much colder. Snow likely. Low around 10. Chance of snow 60 percent. The forecast sounds nice. Hope they are on to something. The disco is kind of different then normal in that it’s written from a first person point of view. Maybe someone new is also forecasting there now. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 15, 2019 16:06:03 GMT -6
Pretty clearly an outlier at this point, much like the last storm |
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Post by landscaper on Jan 15, 2019 16:07:10 GMT -6
18z NAM is south...
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 15, 2019 16:10:10 GMT -6
18z icon has a nice backside. |
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Post by landscaper on Jan 15, 2019 16:11:30 GMT -6
It’s been pretty consistent on that track
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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Jan 15, 2019 16:12:35 GMT -6
18z icon has a nice backside. I’d rate it an 8. Not too shabby. |
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Post by dschreib on Jan 15, 2019 16:18:54 GMT -6
18z icon has a nice backside. As a moderator, I really need to try to set an example. Not replying to this might be the toughest thing I've done today. |
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Jan 15, 2019 16:29:43 GMT -6
18z icon has a nice backside. That's what she said? |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 15, 2019 16:30:16 GMT -6
18z icon has a nice backside. As a moderator, I really need to try to set an example. Not replying to this might be the toughest thing I've done today. I put it on a tee... |
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Post by The Commish- Lake St. Louis on Jan 15, 2019 16:38:56 GMT -6
Kind of curious as to what I'm missing with tonight's advisory. I see the NAM shows some spotty precip but I really don't see temps that cause concern. Is this more of a precaution than anything else as I know that it doesn't take much freezing drizzle to cause issues.
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Post by birdsonthebat (MO'Fallon) on Jan 15, 2019 16:39:38 GMT -6
I’m just fine if this one misses me. Driver quit in midst of this last one and left me high and dry. Can’t find another driver so now I’m in the middle of terminating some contracts and or finding another provider to take it over for them. After setting in the truck for 55 hours straight and being up 68 over the weekend spring can get sooner then later 😊 No loyalty with those drivers........I might be able to help! Shoot me a message. tmf3491@gmail.com |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jan 15, 2019 16:44:43 GMT -6
Kind of curious as to what I'm missing with tonight's advisory. I see the NAM shows some spotty precip but I really don't see temps that cause concern. Is this more of a precaution than anything else as I know that it doesn't take much freezing drizzle to cause issues. Saw a hint of that this morning. At least that was the indication from Monica Adams traffic reports this morning |
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 15, 2019 16:46:00 GMT -6
Gfs also brings a decent snow Tuesday with another shortwave moving through.
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Post by birdsonthebat (MO'Fallon) on Jan 15, 2019 16:48:04 GMT -6
As a moderator, I really need to try to set an example. Not replying to this might be the toughest thing I've done today. I put it on a tee...or throw you a softball! |
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