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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 15, 2019 16:48:05 GMT -6
Gfs also brings a decent snow Tuesday with another shortwave moving through. Euro has another blizzard at day 8-9 lol. Things are wild. |
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Post by REB on Jan 15, 2019 16:54:47 GMT -6
Gfs also brings a decent snow Tuesday with another shortwave moving through. Euro has another blizzard at day 8-9 lol. Things are wild. WSC. I never know if you’re talking about here or where you have migrated. Could you clarify for me? Thanks in advance |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 15, 2019 17:01:46 GMT -6
Euro has another blizzard at day 8-9 lol. Things are wild. WSC. I never know if you’re talking about here or where you have migrated. Could you clarify for me? Thanks in advance I always reference the Saint Louis metro unless I specifically refer to Chicago. The euro shows a rapidly strengthening low next week. Way too early to narrow it beyond the Midwest at this stage with the weekend system still ahead. |
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Post by REB on Jan 15, 2019 17:06:12 GMT -6
WSC. I never know if you’re talking about here or where you have migrated. Could you clarify for me? Thanks in advance I always reference the Saint Louis metro unless I specifically refer to Chicago. The euro shows a rapidly strengthening low next week. Way too early to narrow it beyond the Midwest at this stage with the weekend system still ahead. Thank you. I was uncertain. |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 15, 2019 17:10:59 GMT -6
18z icon has a nice backside. I’d rate it an 8. Not too shabby. I see what you did there.lol |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 15, 2019 17:21:34 GMT -6
Quick chk w surrounding wfo...pah says euro is outlier and they are going with gfs. Their forecasting temps well into the 50s with rain and nuisance flooding. Afds for mci and the mo version of springfield...fairly unremarkable. Did not chk ilx. Cpc has stl on the edge of heavy snow threat. Nws imby forecast says 2 inches friday night, no mention of accums in l8r periods. This continues to look like a high impact system this weekend with rain overnight friday night turning turning to sleet around dawn, then a mix of sleet snow and rain saturday becoming all snow by noon. Snow lasting about 6 hours with a total 2 to 4 inches. Next chance of snow tuesday night into wednesday.just a first guess.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 15, 2019 17:29:20 GMT -6
18z gefs is even further north with the max band...
There is far more clustering to the north among the 20 ensembles this time.
It could be completely wrong, but clearly it is forging it's own path.
I'm always a believer in the euro for the record.
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Post by birdsonthebat (MO'Fallon) on Jan 15, 2019 17:30:11 GMT -6
I always reference the Saint Louis metro unless I specifically refer to Chicago. The euro shows a rapidly strengthening low next week. Way too early to narrow it beyond the Midwest at this stage with the weekend system still ahead. Thank you. I was uncertain. WSC's loyalties will always lie here in STL......Regardless of his physical location!!! |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 15, 2019 17:36:29 GMT -6
18z gefs is even further north with the max band... There is far more clustering to the north among the 20 ensembles this time. It could be completely wrong, but clearly it is forging it's own path. I'm always a believer in the euro for the record. If the FV3 agreed more with it than I would probably give the GFS more consideration. But the FV3 looks much more like the euro. |
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Post by birdsonthebat (MO'Fallon) on Jan 15, 2019 17:36:49 GMT -6
While we have a lull in systems.....I spent the day shopping auto and homeowners insurance. I ended up decreasing my insurance premiums by $400 a month! Seems to be the norm to have shop policies every two years.
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Post by guyfromhecker on Jan 15, 2019 17:56:46 GMT -6
While we have a lull in systems.....I spent the day shopping auto and homeowners insurance. I ended up decreasing my insurance premiums by $400 a month! Seems to be the norm to have shop policies every two years. If we decreased ours by $400 per month we'd be getting it for free |
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Post by TK on Jan 15, 2019 18:03:29 GMT -6
The trend of a stronger system is starting to become apparent. This will likely lead to a two component system...WAA which is likely rain for many of us. Then, where the surface low tracks is anyone's guess at this point. I'm still going with roughly the same areas that got it this last time. Euro keeps hope alive for us down here, but the trend is the trend. Then we're back to the similarities to 1982 again. Any indication there will be any convection? Stop it |
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Post by landscaper on Jan 15, 2019 18:15:28 GMT -6
The 18z GEFS mean low placement looks nearly identical to 12z within 20-60 miles .
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Post by TK on Jan 15, 2019 18:15:46 GMT -6
Nws has 1to 3 inches now on friday night. Huh. Sounds like they are siding with a colder/S track. Have to say it's nice to have the Ukie quite a bit south of other guidance...that makes me think a significant shift north is unlikely at this point...but we'll see. Is there a reason your confidence is that strong with the Ukie vs other models? |
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Post by Sparkman - Wildwood, Mo on Jan 15, 2019 18:25:02 GMT -6
Sounds like they are siding with a colder/S track. Have to say it's nice to have the Ukie quite a bit south of other guidance...that makes me think a significant shift north is unlikely at this point...but we'll see. Is there a reason your confidence is that strong with the Ukie vs other models? It’s not Ukie vs other models. It’s GFS vs the world and it will be wrong. |
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Post by TK on Jan 15, 2019 18:29:53 GMT -6
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 15, 2019 18:30:40 GMT -6
I think the Ukie is right up there with the Euro in verification scores. Its a pretty reliable model
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 15, 2019 18:33:10 GMT -6
Can't tell if you are being sarcastic or not at this point due to lack of voice inflection and body language. |
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Post by TK on Jan 15, 2019 18:39:41 GMT -6
Can't tell if you are being sarcastic or not at this point due to lack of voice inflection and body language. LOL.... |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 15, 2019 18:46:19 GMT -6
Leave WSC alone. He’s one of the original members of this forum and the farthest thing from a troll
Plus I think him moving helped release the snow curse that was on St Louis
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 15, 2019 18:50:45 GMT -6
Kind of curious as to what I'm missing with tonight's advisory. I see the NAM shows some spotty precip but I really don't see temps that cause concern. Is this more of a precaution than anything else as I know that it doesn't take much freezing drizzle to cause issues. If this hasnt been answered...ill try...theres going to be plenty of low level moisture that may not be picked up synoptically by the models. I think we are looking at drizzle that cld freeze and go undetected by radar. Bridges and overpasses first. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 15, 2019 18:54:15 GMT -6
I just posted a video on FB with some thoughts about the upcoming active pattern.
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Jan 15, 2019 19:16:47 GMT -6
Great update Chris. Thank you!
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 15, 2019 19:22:15 GMT -6
Great explanation. Thanks for breaking it down. Its good to know that my conceptual thinking is consistent with the master's.
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Post by yypc on Jan 15, 2019 19:26:07 GMT -6
Nice update Chris thanks for posting
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Post by TK on Jan 15, 2019 19:36:46 GMT -6
Nice job Chris - You should have your own 24 hour non-stop TV coverage during winter storms....Very interesting for many...
You could use this gang as live storm runners
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 15, 2019 19:37:49 GMT -6
So your video was quite interesting in how you tracked that swirl from the aluetian islands to the ms valley. Your description of the sensible wx matches perfectly with what i had in mind. The word of the day is blizzardette, or shall we say things will be blizzardesque, but not full on blizzard. Lol. Its going to feel miserable outside. Winds 20 to 30 mph with falling temps are going to impact.
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Post by landscaper on Jan 15, 2019 19:39:19 GMT -6
Great video
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Post by The Commish- Lake St. Louis on Jan 15, 2019 19:39:39 GMT -6
As always Chris, an awesome explanation. A nice balance of information for those “novice” people out there and for us forum members that like to delve deeper into the weather systems. Appreciated as always.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 15, 2019 19:41:54 GMT -6
The GFS has a pretty flat and quick ejecting vorticity considering the jet is roaring around the backside and base of the trough.
I THINK the GFS is probably not digging the system enough.
And Because of that and the GFS being so flat it gets sheared apart.
The confluence in the lakes has a raging Northern jet.
It's just too soon to really say.
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