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Post by ajd446 on Jan 31, 2019 9:01:41 GMT -6
Looking at rap I am very concerned about freezing drizzle tonight.temps warming to 29 by day break however ground temps are frigid
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Post by rb1108 on Jan 31, 2019 9:10:07 GMT -6
I'm going dry Thursday for now...and just advertising cold. I tossed the Euro 70 degree day Wednesday too. I don't doubt an over-running event developing...but think it may wait a bit longer and just want to have a better sense of timing before I introduce it...especially with some much going on between now and then. I'm also certain it will happen Friday into Saturday because I'm heading back to Cincinnati for another basketball game Holy canoly....euro shows 70 wednesday? Cold front getting delayed? Remember, the euro said like 70 last week and then went to single digits the next run. I don't think its performed well lately especially with temps, so I would take with a grain of salt.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 31, 2019 9:10:56 GMT -6
I've been concerned about this all week...even if temps rise to say 32-34 degrees, there will still be a glaze on the roads since its been so cold. We saw this happen a couple years ago after a stretch of single digits. It won't take much at all. Trust me, I hit a guardrail due to this during that event.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 31, 2019 9:19:48 GMT -6
I've been seeing a lot of outlets shrugging off this evenings's event...not sure that's a good call. I've also seen forecasts for upper 20s today and I don't see that happening at all with clouds, an east wind and snow cover. Surface temps should still be plenty cold for effective accretion.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 31, 2019 9:28:36 GMT -6
The one saving grace may be the tremendous amount of salt and other chemicals on the roads, at least down here.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 31, 2019 9:35:28 GMT -6
12z Icon is still icy for next week, but has cut back the artic air a bit.
Probably more realistic now.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 31, 2019 9:41:59 GMT -6
Actually, headed toward later in the week, the Icon looks poised for a long duration overrunning event.
Interesting run today.
Edit:
By next week at this time the Icon has a single digit ice storm and heavy snow event.
Wow.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 31, 2019 9:53:34 GMT -6
Actually, headed toward later in the week, the Icon looks poised for a long duration overrunning event. Interesting run today. By next week at this time the Icon has a single digit ice storm and heavy snow event. Wow. That actually looks really realistic unfortunately. We'll see what the GFS says...
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Post by landscaper on Jan 31, 2019 9:53:58 GMT -6
Awesome bring it on
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Post by Tilawn on Jan 31, 2019 9:57:40 GMT -6
Actually, headed toward later in the week, the Icon looks poised for a long duration overrunning event. Interesting run today. Edit: By next week at this time the Icon has a single digit ice storm and heavy snow event. Wow. F... THAT!!
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 31, 2019 10:01:38 GMT -6
I know it's been said before but we are waaaaaaay overdue for a significant/major ice storm.
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Post by snowjunky on Jan 31, 2019 10:04:27 GMT -6
I know it's been said before but we are waaaaaaay overdue for a significant/major ice storm. Was 2006 the last major ice storm?
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sullivanjohn
Wishcaster
Sullivan, MO
Posts: 141
Snowfall Events: Code Monkey
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Post by sullivanjohn on Jan 31, 2019 10:07:08 GMT -6
I know it's been said before but we are waaaaaaay overdue for a significant/major ice storm. Was 2006 the last major ice storm? In our area (Sullivan), the last one I remember was say Jan 15ish of 2007. Wife had just given birth to our youngest. We received just shy 1/2" of ice...lost power for 10 hours (we were some of the lucky ones). Have a friend that lives just over the hill from me and she lost power for over a week with that storm. I will echo what BRTN said...we're overdue. Doesn't mean any of us are wishing it into existence though...
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 31, 2019 10:07:08 GMT -6
I know it's been said before but we are waaaaaaay overdue for a significant/major ice storm. Was 2006 the last major ice storm? Jan 2007.
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Post by rb1108 on Jan 31, 2019 10:07:35 GMT -6
I know it's been said before but we are waaaaaaay overdue for a significant/major ice storm. It seems like it always occurs right after a big warm-up. I remember one major ice storm (maybe 2006?) happened shortly after Thanksgiving, and Thanksgiving was super mild.
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Post by REB on Jan 31, 2019 10:17:51 GMT -6
I know it's been said before but we are waaaaaaay overdue for a significant/major ice storm. I can't stand ice events. Nov. 30, 2006 was the worst for us. It's not fun when a limb comes through your sunroom roof. Our doggie, Buddy, was never the same after that event. The noise of the limbs and ice all night completely traumatized him. I don't want that to happen to our Hunter.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 31, 2019 10:22:14 GMT -6
The gfs squashes the boundary south as a very strong high moves into the U.S.
The warmup will be brief.
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Post by cozpregon on Jan 31, 2019 10:26:09 GMT -6
WSC- lowest was -23 it looks like... so we each missed by 2. As I said in the previous post... you go -25 I'll stick with my -21 and you can owe me a beer when you get in town. The beer part- that was a statement- not a bet.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 31, 2019 10:26:34 GMT -6
GFS still more progressive, but you can see the signs of it regenerating the precip following the lead wave of plain rain on Wednesday. It actually produces a nasty ice storm in TX, AR, and LA. That's a major shift north from the previous solutions and makes me think it will continue to trend toward the ICON.
I don't mean to overhype but this setup/pattern continues to scream ice storm to me. Like BRTN and others have said, its been a while.
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Post by perryville on Jan 31, 2019 10:43:51 GMT -6
I know it's been said before but we are waaaaaaay overdue for a significant/major ice storm. Perryville was rain in 06 and sleet in 09 (Cape, Jackson, Poplar Bluff, etc got hammered with ice.) I agree with you.
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 31, 2019 10:51:35 GMT -6
Jan. 2007 was the epic ice storm that hit parts of Missouri. It was most devastating around Springfield MO, but parts of St. Louis were also affected. I had severe tree damage unlike anything I had ever seen before and it wasn't even remotely close to what happen in Springfield MO. I have seen it described as one of the worst ice storm to have ever hit Missouri. www.weather.gov/sgf/events_2007jan12
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 31, 2019 10:55:29 GMT -6
I know it's been said before but we are waaaaaaay overdue for a significant/major ice storm. Perryville was rain in 06 and sleet in 09 (Cape, Jackson, Poplar Bluff, etc got hammered with ice.) I agree with you. In 2006 I think the freeze line stopped basically at the Ste. Gen/Perry county line. I had about .50" ice in STG. I Remember SEMO pretty well being shut down in 2009 from that one as I had buddies there, but was still at Jeffco at the time.
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Post by amstilost on Jan 31, 2019 11:04:15 GMT -6
cleaned off everything again with push broom. Love Diamond Dust. Re measured and the additional wave of snow added .25", so 1" total in downtown De Soto.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 31, 2019 11:17:06 GMT -6
I'll never forget the waves of TSZR during the 2007 ice storm. If temps would have been another 2-3* colder we would have gotten the catastrophic damage that SW MO and OK got. We got well over an inch of precipitation but accretion wasn't effecient at 30-32*.
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Post by perryville on Jan 31, 2019 11:25:39 GMT -6
Perryville was rain in 06 and sleet in 09 (Cape, Jackson, Poplar Bluff, etc got hammered with ice.) I agree with you. In 2006 I think the freeze line stopped basically at the Ste. Gen/Perry county line. I had about .50" ice in STG. I Remember SEMO pretty well being shut down in 2009 from that one as I had buddies there, but was still at Jeffco at the time. My father in-law worked for the M & A electric out of Poplar Bluff in 09. They supplied electric to the coops around SEMO Region. Nearly 100% of poles south of Cape/Jackson were snapped. Longest 2 weeks of his life he said.
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Post by dschreib on Jan 31, 2019 11:31:21 GMT -6
Perryville was rain in 06 and sleet in 09 (Cape, Jackson, Poplar Bluff, etc got hammered with ice.) I agree with you. In 2006 I think the freeze line stopped basically at the Ste. Gen/Perry county line. I had about .50" ice in STG. I Remember SEMO pretty well being shut down in 2009 from that one as I had buddies there, but was still at Jeffco at the time. We didn't have much in Marissa in 2006, either. We had about 1/4" of freezing rain. My dad, 10 miles away, was without power for several days.
I have had bouts of both thunder-sleet and thunder-freezing rain since then.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 31, 2019 11:39:33 GMT -6
12z FV3 certainly lends support to the Icon.
So, pretty big run of the euro upcoming.
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Post by shrapnel - Arnold, MO on Jan 31, 2019 11:48:00 GMT -6
US National Weather Service Saint Louis Missouri 39 mins ·
Warmer air is surging north from the Gulf of Mexico and will collide with the arctic air mass entrenched over the lower Missouri and middle Mississippi River Valleys to produce light freezing rain, freezing drizzle and fog tonight across much of southeast and east central Missouri, as well as southern Illinois. Forecast confidence continues to increase on the likelihood of a light ice accumulation or glaze impacting these areas which will cause hazardous driving conditions on untreated surfaces. Fog will also reduce visibility overnight. The light precipitation looks to develop this evening and continue into Friday morning. Image may contain: text 6464 29 Comments208 Shares
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 31, 2019 11:54:34 GMT -6
I know it's been said before but we are waaaaaaay overdue for a significant/major ice storm. Was 2006 the last major ice storm? I consider the decembee 2017 boondoggle major.
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Post by toddatfarmington on Jan 31, 2019 11:56:49 GMT -6
Should be some headline changes forthcoming from NWS in relation to icing potential tonight, along and S of I-44 corridor
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