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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 15, 2019 19:44:06 GMT -6
So my next question where is the energy for next weeks system coming from? Is that the bundle of energy that is swinging the weekend energy by any chance? With that north energy slinging the weekend energy around its southern flank, is the slinging energy's northward placement why were confident for rain on the following tuesday? Does the question make sense?
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Post by TK on Jan 15, 2019 20:31:39 GMT -6
Crickets
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Post by grizzlebeard on Jan 15, 2019 20:33:36 GMT -6
Still looking for some ideas on what about the set up tonight was enough for the NWS to issue the WWA. Is it because a little bit of ice can make a whole lot of mess and an overabundance of caution? Anyone know if MODOT and the municipalities are treating to avoid a slippery mess in the morning?
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 15, 2019 20:42:34 GMT -6
So my next question where is the energy for next weeks system coming from? Is that the bundle of energy that is swinging the weekend energy by any chance? With that north energy slinging the weekend energy around its southern flank, is the slinging energy's northward placement why were confident for rain on the following tuesday? Does the question make sense? Who is confident in rain next Tuesday? Several runs of the globals have shown a variety of wintery solutions following the weekend storm and associated artic blast. The PV lobe has not come all the way down and locked in (probably because the NAO isnt negative), and the AO is going extremely negative meaning an active storm track. This leads to shots of wintry weather and intense cold instead of sustained record cold and suppression. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 15, 2019 20:44:06 GMT -6
NAM is coming in pretty far south and cold
Interesting considering its usually the warmest and most amplified.
But its also the NAM outside its reliability window
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 15, 2019 20:46:29 GMT -6
So my next question where is the energy for next weeks system coming from? Is that the bundle of energy that is swinging the weekend energy by any chance? With that north energy slinging the weekend energy around its southern flank, is the slinging energy's northward placement why were confident for rain on the following tuesday? Does the question make sense? Who is confident in rain next Tuesday? Several runs of the globals have shown a variety of wintery solutions following the weekend storm and associated artic blast. The PV lobe has not come all the way down and locked in (probably because the NAO isnt negative), and the AO is going extremely negative meaning an active storm track. This leads to shots of wintry weather and intense cold instead of sustained record cold and suppression. My zone forecast and chris' forecsst from earlier had more emphasis on rain. The reasons you stated have caused me to put the question out there. It looked like a colder solutionwld verify. |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 15, 2019 20:46:47 GMT -6
Thd name is quite a bit weaker with the system over Texas and a lot stronger with the confluence over the lakes.
Should we definitely extrapolate really far south.
Like almost too far south especially for the backside for us I would probably think the best know he'll be over the Missouri Ozarks into Southeast Missouri and Southwest Illinois south of 44.
But have a much better chance for snow/sleet the entire system though the metro.
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Post by cozpregon on Jan 15, 2019 20:49:44 GMT -6
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 15, 2019 20:51:10 GMT -6
Who is confident in rain next Tuesday? Several runs of the globals have shown a variety of wintery solutions following the weekend storm and associated artic blast. The PV lobe has not come all the way down and locked in (probably because the NAO isnt negative), and the AO is going extremely negative meaning an active storm track. This leads to shots of wintry weather and intense cold instead of sustained record cold and suppression. My zone forecast and chris' forecsst from earlier had more emphasis on rain. The reasons you stated have caused me to put the question out there. It looked like a colder solutionwld verify. I dont think anyone is confident in a sto solution in the 7-10 day range. Especially with a challenging weekend event. For instance, the euro shows a bomb cyclone (that's the technical term lol). |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 15, 2019 20:52:19 GMT -6
Actually the nam has heavy WAA snow if it went out a little further.
Would pound the metro.
That's a really perfect scenario for us.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 15, 2019 20:53:40 GMT -6
So coz, if you extrapolated the NAM out would you expect it to wrap up a low or keep the energy sheared out? Im trying to figure out what its doing
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Post by landscaper on Jan 15, 2019 20:56:57 GMT -6
I love the NAM, it would be awesome to see some other support, the UKMET was pretty far south today. It would be nice to see the EURO trend more south tonight.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 15, 2019 21:00:49 GMT -6
So coz, if you extrapolated the NAM out would you expect it to wrap up a low or keep the energy sheared out? Im trying to figure out what its doing It would close off and open right back up as it crosses through the Mississippi valley. The NAM has pretty Stout H5-h650 WAA lift moving ENE and would verbatim smoke along and S of 44/64 with sleet and, graupel, and freezing rain further South like Farmington and St. Gen. On the minus side there is a lot of SUBSIDENCE between h7-h850 at the same time So pockets of dry air f&$+ing snow growth. With a near 0c thin layer about h875. Better than rain |
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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Jan 15, 2019 21:01:43 GMT -6
Looks to me like the NAM wants to hold back a bit on timing. Is further south as well, allowing more cold air to intrude and then close off and slam us with a good Def band.  |
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Post by landscaper on Jan 15, 2019 21:04:23 GMT -6
Snow, i could see it going both ways, it looks like it’s closed off at 500/850 that might argue for a more wound up / strengthing system. Also it has a 1050 HP in the Rockies that might help blow it up.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 15, 2019 21:05:26 GMT -6
My zone forecast and chris' forecsst from earlier had more emphasis on rain. The reasons you stated have caused me to put the question out there. It looked like a colder solutionwld verify. I dont think anyone is confident in a sto solution in the 7-10 day range. Especially with a challenging weekend event. For instance, the euro shows a bomb cyclone (that's the technical term lol). Let me clarify because i think some subtleties got lost in translation...many public forecasts seem to have an unwarranted (imo) emphasis on liquid the following week including local media. Im just putting the question out there to get their thinking. The question was directed to Chris. I was not looking to get pulled into this rabbithole of a debate abt confidence levels...pls let chris answer my question because i watched his forecast. |
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Post by cozpregon on Jan 15, 2019 21:05:58 GMT -6
So coz, if you extrapolated the NAM out would you expect it to wrap up a low or keep the energy sheared out? Im trying to figure out what its doing If that northern jet gets out of the way... there is nothing to hold the southern stream from going north. Also... I would imagine there would be some coupling going on- helping to wrap it up. |
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Post by cozpregon on Jan 15, 2019 21:09:11 GMT -6
Still looking for some ideas on what about the set up tonight was enough for the NWS to issue the WWA. Is it because a little bit of ice can make a whole lot of mess and an overabundance of caution? Anyone know if MODOT and the municipalities are treating to avoid a slippery mess in the morning? I think north of us it's legit... for the metro- cautious. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 15, 2019 21:13:13 GMT -6
NAM looks like it would be pretty far south to me...the confluence is setting up right over us. It has more of a positively tilted ridge which holds back more energy for a longer time.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 15, 2019 21:21:23 GMT -6
Looks to me like the NAN wants to hold back a bit on timing allowing more cold air to intrude and then close off and slam us with a good Def band. Maybe but there is like no room for amplification. Backside winds are not that favorable 3 wrapped up system across the Mississippi. If I had to extrapolate out in time a pretty good initial burst of warm air advection snow would come up i-44 And would have a really hard time making it north of 70. The wind vectors a pretty fart of the Southand they fear to the Eastover South Central Missouri. In other words the focus of the lift is where those wind veer causing air to rise like nino convergence. Well the problem is twofold The upper level low pressure is pretty strong but it's way over South West Texas and it's still digging I mean it's at the end of that process. So that Lyft will push into at least the southern half of the metro. But there is no low level jet at this point to aid the WAA. The recent system had a stacked deck so the WAA was insane. So then once this system got that s*** together. Everything is going to essentially like consolidate and reform over Texas. So a second round of warm air advection with the UL for itself will refocus further south in the first one. Then if it holds together enough for backside precip that will probably end up going south of us given the fact that there is nowhere for that system to amplify when it crosses in Mississippi. but verbatim I think the sweets that would pretty much be along and southeast of i-44. There would definitely be some frontal forced Snow's as the system came out and the mid level fronts sharpened. Honestly I really like the way the nam looks. There's a really good chance that our best shot at snow will either come from a front-end sump or from a little bit of a backside partial deformation zone but almost certainly not from both. And there's a much better chance that the backside won't be hardly bleep. but the one ear infection push definitely going to be there no matter what. and we could easily see a good three to six inches from that given a setup like the nam expecially along and south of 64. |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 15, 2019 21:24:58 GMT -6
Sorry for all of the typos.
Using talk to text
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 15, 2019 21:32:21 GMT -6
Maybe but there is like no room for amplification. Backside winds are not that favorable 3 wrapped up system across the Mississippi. If I had to extrapolate out in time a pretty good initial burst of warm air advection snow would come up i-44 And would have a really hard time making it north of 70. The wind vectors a pretty fart of the Southand they fear to the Eastover South Central Missouri. In other words the focus of the lift is where those wind veer causing air to rise like nino convergence. Well the problem is twofold The upper level low pressure is pretty strong but it's way over South West Texas and it's still digging I mean it's at the end of that process. So that Lyft will push into at least the southern half of the metro. But there is no low level jet at this point to aid the WAA. The recent system had a stacked deck so the WAA was insane. So then once this system got that s*** together. Everything is going to essentially like consolidate and reform over Texas. So a second round of warm air advection with the UL for itself will refocus further south in the first one. Then if it holds together enough for backside precip that will probably end up going south of us given the fact that there is nowhere for that system to amplify when it crosses in Mississippi. but verbatim I think the sweets that would pretty much be along and southeast of i-44. There would definitely be some frontal forced Snow's as the system came out and the mid level fronts sharpened. Honestly I really like the way the nam looks. There's a really good chance that our best shot at snow will either come from a front-end sump or from a little bit of a backside partial deformation zone but almost certainly not from both. And there's a much better chance that the backside won't be hardly bleep. but the one ear infection push definitely going to be there no matter what. and we could easily see a good three to six inches from that given a setup like the nam expecially along and south of 64. |
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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Jan 15, 2019 21:33:36 GMT -6
Looks to me like the NAN wants to hold back a bit on timing allowing more cold air to intrude and then close off and slam us with a good Def band. Maybe but there is like no room for amplification. Backside winds are not that favorable 3 wrapped up system across the Mississippi. If I had to extrapolate out in time a pretty good initial burst of warm air advection snow would come up i-44 And would have a really hard time making it north of 70. The wind vectors a pretty fart of the Southand they fear to the Eastover South Central Missouri. In other words the focus of the lift is where those wind veer causing air to rise like nino convergence. Well the problem is twofold The upper level low pressure is pretty strong but it's way over South West Texas and it's still digging I mean it's at the end of that process. So that Lyft will push into at least the southern half of the metro. But there is no low level jet at this point to aid the WAA. The recent system had a stacked deck so the WAA was insane. So then once this system got that s*** together. Everything is going to essentially like consolidate and reform over Texas. So a second round of warm air advection with the UL for itself will refocus further south in the first one. Then if it holds together enough for backside precip that will probably end up going south of us given the fact that there is nowhere for that system to amplify when it crosses in Mississippi. but verbatim I think the sweets that would pretty much be along and southeast of i-44. There would definitely be some frontal forced Snow's as the system came out and the mid level fronts sharpened. Honestly I really like the way the nam looks. There's a really good chance that our best shot at snow will either come from a front-end sump or from a little bit of a backside partial deformation zone but almost certainly not from both. And there's a much better chance that the backside won't be hardly bleep. but the one ear infection push definitely going to be there no matter what. and we could easily see a good three to six inches from that given a setup like the nam expecially along and south of 64. In your words Friv, I couldn’t have said that any better lmfao! I can entirely see your reasons and how it’s a damned if you do, damned if you don’t kind of situation especially if the LLJ is too weak as modeled on that run show the energy getting shunned south. It’s odd because the NAM usually has a bias with a stronger LLJ. In my opinion I could see this being a 3-6 type event. Nothing huge but nonetheless a good normal stl storm. |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 15, 2019 21:33:44 GMT -6
The good news is that if this ends up being too far north for us to get snow then the Northeast is not going to get anything except maybe rain to flurries.
Considering they didn't get anything this past week well if it comes to that I can live with it
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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Jan 15, 2019 21:38:29 GMT -6
I wish someone would document the synonyms some of us use for nomenclature in this forum. Pretty sure it would bring a whole new creative world to the fancy terms used in meteorology lol.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 15, 2019 21:39:21 GMT -6
The Icon isn't happening.
No way this system closes off at H5 from West Central Texas to the Mississippi River and blazes East like that
It would dig more than that.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 15, 2019 21:41:03 GMT -6
Icon is exactly opposite of how I thought it might trend. It's rather disorganized with lots of rain and one thin band of snow on the backside.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 15, 2019 21:44:35 GMT -6
Icon is exactly opposite of how I thought it might trend. It's rather disorganized with lots of rain and one thin band of snow on the backside. The backside jet is pretty weak so the system wraps up further North East Ok whatever. Then a PV lobe of energy creates an opening in the northern jet and the system starts phasing right as the backside is crossing MO. The deformation falls apart |
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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Jan 15, 2019 21:47:45 GMT -6
I have no clue what the ICON was thinking on this run but I don’t even care to talk about it because it’s a scattered mess and in my opinion an errored out run.
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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Jan 15, 2019 21:52:46 GMT -6
GFS looking north..not looking great thus far on this run...
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