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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 31, 2019 12:55:16 GMT -6
Right now, fv3 and icon hold just as much weight as the Euro does, IMO. I’d give them a close second. In my opinion they have all done very well out especially in the long range. And the underdog ICON..well I don’t think people give that model enough credit. It’s in in my top three list for long range trends right now with the EURO and the FV3. Its verification scores are third, so that makes sense.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 31, 2019 12:56:07 GMT -6
The numbers are confusing because the highways turn. But 25 gives you several options to hit 55....via 74 by south cape, route k at gordonville going toward cape, or 25 through jackson. All are pretty straight. Glad someone else knows about the land of the lost . Beautiful country but not during winter weather. There is no good east west highway near there. There was talk of I66 going through there but that has been scrapped. Theres now talk of a direct link from. Cape to paducah but that will never help going west and that wont happen due to the national forest in s il. Cape has that shiny new bridge which leads to....bars and strip joint in east cape lol
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Post by perryville on Jan 31, 2019 12:59:10 GMT -6
Looks like STL NWS is going with a 6 pm start time tonight for my area.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 31, 2019 13:01:00 GMT -6
Big picture setup on all the models is supportive for multiple waves of rain/ice/snow across the middle of the country next week
No need to get more specific than that right now
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Post by perryville on Jan 31, 2019 13:01:26 GMT -6
Glad someone else knows about the land of the lost . Beautiful country but not during winter weather. There is no good east west highway near there. There was talk of I66 going through there but that has been scrapped. Theres now talk of a direct link from. Cape to paducah but that will never help going west and that wont happen due to the national forest in s il. Cape has that shiny new bridge which leads to....bars and strip joint in east cape lol I don’t use that big bridge unless I’m going to southern Illinois. If I’m going east of any distance, easier to use I-64. If I’m going south, go through Cairo.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 31, 2019 13:07:21 GMT -6
There is no good east west highway near there. There was talk of I66 going through there but that has been scrapped. Theres now talk of a direct link from. Cape to paducah but that will never help going west and that wont happen due to the national forest in s il. Cape has that shiny new bridge which leads to....bars and strip joint in east cape lol I don’t use that big bridge unless I’m going to southern Illinois. If I’m going east of any distance, easier to use I-64. If I’m going south, go through Cairo. I used to hang out at Purple Grackle on thursday nights in college across the river. The old bridge...if you met an 18 wheeler, you either died or survived with a story. My story, lost a side view mirror on my dads 72 ford maverick.lol
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 31, 2019 13:12:21 GMT -6
Ok truth be told, i was still in high school. They didnt look too closely at IDs.
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Post by maddogchief on Jan 31, 2019 13:12:33 GMT -6
Unfortunately, the FV3 is literally all over the place with midweek system. Then adds late next week system.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 31, 2019 13:16:21 GMT -6
Next week...im thinking more of a liquid scenario. With so much activity going on, i dont think the cold air will get here for mid week at all. But i do think the weekend we may be looking,at a watcher so any model that has a system over the weekend probably is on to something.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 31, 2019 13:18:06 GMT -6
I continue to think that freezing drizzle is a concern for tonight and will create some challenging driving conditions. Here is the map I'm about to post to FB. I'm using the region of upward motion at 850mb as my rough guide for the region of somewhat more substantial light freezing rain (as opposed to freezing drizzle). This happens to line up well with very light QPF the NAM is showing. It is hard to say how far northwest the freezing drizzle will make it...but I tried to use the passage of 850mb trough as a guide for both how far north the drizzle gets...but also for a shut-off time. Rather than get too cute with timing...just going 8pm to 8am across the board for timing for now.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 31, 2019 13:25:09 GMT -6
Chris, any gut feeling for next week amid the model discrepancy?
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 31, 2019 13:30:20 GMT -6
Chris, any gut feeling for next week amid the model discrepancy? Not really. I'm not paying too much attention to that right now until after we get the freezing drizzle out of the way tonight.
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Post by cozpregon on Jan 31, 2019 13:42:14 GMT -6
Models all have the players on the field later next week... just positioned different- which is what we should expect a week out. 3 things I think to look at... trough digging into the 4 corners, the northern wave and to a lesser extent the lead shortwave moving across the lakes. GFS is quickly moving the northern stream along the US/Canada border... and doesn't have much influence in pulling the southern wave north. The FV3 is holding back the northern wave... more in phase and pulls in further north The Euro is even further back with the northern wave and doesn't allow the cold to get here before the southern piece passes. Canadian is slower and stronger with the initial shortwave moving thru the lakes and keeps the 4 corners wave from coming further north.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 31, 2019 14:12:00 GMT -6
Interesting 30 day outlook by cpc
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 31, 2019 14:17:38 GMT -6
Interesting 30 day outlook by cpc 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks also have below normal temperatures and above average precep here. Always a good sign
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 31, 2019 14:25:07 GMT -6
Interesting 30 day outlook by cpc 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks also have below normal temperatures and above average precep here. Always a good sign The differences in feb outlook today vs 2 weeks ago is what i found interesting. Just looks like a whole new pattern. Less reminiscent of nw flow and more reminiscnt of mid latitude cyclones. Shld be a fun month then.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 31, 2019 14:26:26 GMT -6
Huge expansive area of above normal precip.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 31, 2019 14:28:07 GMT -6
and alaska is warm in the 30 day outlook...neg epo?
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gonefishin - WashMO
Junior Forecaster
Washington, Franklin County, MO
Posts: 491
Snowfall Events: 2013-2014: A lot!
2014-2015: If you forecast it, it will come!
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Post by gonefishin - WashMO on Jan 31, 2019 14:38:21 GMT -6
That the beginning of it in NW Oklahoma?
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 31, 2019 14:42:26 GMT -6
and alaska is warm in the 30 day outlook...neg epo? EPO looks to stay negative for the foreseeable future
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 31, 2019 14:52:59 GMT -6
and alaska is warm in the 30 day outlook...neg epo? EPO looks to stay negative for the foreseeable future
Fits very well with my earlier disclosure of my current thinking of a cold and snowy february. With overperforming storms, this month could really be the signature of this winter.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 31, 2019 15:23:46 GMT -6
Those 70s on Sunday and Monday are gonna feel nice.
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Post by toddatfarmington on Jan 31, 2019 15:28:17 GMT -6
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Post by mchafin on Jan 31, 2019 15:51:39 GMT -6
Those 70s on Sunday and Monday are gonna feel nice. I need to drain the hot tub and refill it, so that will be nice to do when it's significantly higher than 32.
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Post by Tilawn on Jan 31, 2019 15:52:45 GMT -6
Looks like NWS seems to favor I-44 and south for the freezing precipitation tonight into the morning. Would really like to get some sleep tonight so I’d be ok if it stays away from my clients lots.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 31, 2019 16:18:11 GMT -6
Seems to be a trend (including the 18z ICON) of delaying the second arctic front next week. We may be looking at 4+ days in the mid 60's.
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Post by mchafin on Jan 31, 2019 16:19:48 GMT -6
Seems to be a trend (including the 18z ICON) of delaying the second arctic front next week. We may be looking at 4+ days in the mid 60's. I anticipate that this will lead to many posts about disappointment with this outcome. Because Febtober was supposed to be terribly cold and wintery. Not Springy.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 31, 2019 16:28:09 GMT -6
18z gfs is also further north later in the week edging ever closer to an ice storm.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 31, 2019 17:09:13 GMT -6
I dont think significant winter wx will occur next week. Im thinking the weekend or even early the following week.north trend is telling with that, and it wldnt surprise me if we had to wait a few days longer. We are in ec for temps according to cpc with a big territory of below normal temps to our north and west, so the uncertainty is how quickly we can establish a cold enough pattern to keep storm systems steered favorably for snow. Thats going to be gradual. I wld not expect that to happen next week. But once its here, it cld mean business. This warmth will mean business for sure.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 31, 2019 17:10:54 GMT -6
That drizzle is getting pretty far north in SW Mo
Not a good sign for the metro
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