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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 31, 2019 17:18:24 GMT -6
Nao is weakly positive trending stronger positive. Epo is negative, so i see fast moving storms and many cutters....rain to snow situations where we get secondary development with wide temp swings. Lots of storms but we dont live in iowa or minnesota. We will have rain, lots of rain...but lots of snow too.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 31, 2019 17:19:11 GMT -6
I dont think significant winter wx will occur next week. Im thinking the weekend or even early the following week.north trend is telling with that, and it wldnt surprise me if we had to wait a few days longer. We are in ec for temps according to cpc with a big territory of below normal temps to our north and west, so the uncertainty is how quickly we can establish a cold enough pattern to keep storm systems steered favorably for snow. Thats going to be gradual. I wld not expect that to happen next week. But once its here, it cld mean business. This warmth will mean business for sure. Um, the cold air is more likely to crush anything late in the week than not be there. The airmass is very cold and a 1040-1050 high is crashing in.
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Post by jeffcobeeman on Jan 31, 2019 17:29:01 GMT -6
So what you are all saying is "Two more weeks" huh? 😁
I'm glad Saturday will be nice. I'm running down to Tennessee to pick up a new 4 wheeler. Some tweaker around Catawissa cut the lock off my buddies barn, then cut the cable lock on my 4 wheeler, and left with it. Sad thing is, the sheriffs department didnt give me much hope that it would be found and recovered. If anyone ever needs any off-road vehicle, I would recommend Abernathy. They have unbeatable prices and take care of it all over the phone! Biggest drawback is the 3 hour drive, but it's worth it to save about 1500 bucks!
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Post by amstilost on Jan 31, 2019 17:34:17 GMT -6
I dont think significant winter wx will occur next week. Im thinking the weekend or even early the following week.north trend is telling with that, and it wldnt surprise me if we had to wait a few days longer. We are in ec for temps according to cpc with a big territory of below normal temps to our north and west, so the uncertainty is how quickly we can establish a cold enough pattern to keep storm systems steered favorably for snow. Thats going to be gradual. I wld not expect that to happen next week. But once its here, it cld mean business. This warmth will mean business for sure. Um, the cold air is more likely to crush anything late in the week than not be there. The airmass is very cold and a 1040-1050 high is crashing in. Just trying to understand the different patterns in play here. We just had super cold air (a little north) and we had a 1030mb surface high over us. I know that was influenced by the 'Polar Vortex' (include deep, echoing voice) so this next pattern that Beaker is highlighting, is this a change in the long wave pattern with 'just cold enough air' nearby? vs. a Polar Vortex type pattern?? Not sure if that makes sense, I can't think of a better way to put it.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 31, 2019 17:36:21 GMT -6
18z fv3 goes boom.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 31, 2019 17:44:45 GMT -6
Back to back major ice storms That would be rough
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 31, 2019 17:49:21 GMT -6
Hrrrrrr is pretty robust with the zr down here tonight. We'll see how the roads do. Glad the advisory was issued.
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Post by landscaper on Jan 31, 2019 17:50:18 GMT -6
That 18z Super GFS looks amazing, three rounds of sleet and freezing rain
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 31, 2019 17:57:46 GMT -6
Um, the cold air is more likely to crush anything late in the week than not be there. The airmass is very cold and a 1040-1050 high is crashing in. Just trying to understand the different patterns in play here. We just had super cold air (a little north) and we had a 1030mb surface high over us. I know that was influenced by the 'Polar Vortex' (include deep, echoing voice) so this next pattern that Beaker is highlighting, is this a change in the long wave pattern with 'just cold enough air' nearby? vs. a Polar Vortex type pattern?? Not sure if that makes sense, I can't think of a better way to put it. There is still extremely cold air poised to unload next week, but not as a result of the PV. The stratospheric PV is back in one piece.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 31, 2019 17:58:44 GMT -6
Thinking we may see something significant come together next week but I don't have a good handle at all on how it does so. Big picture definitely suggests on overrunning scenario but there's a lot of moving parts and every run and model looks different. Also, the pattern has favored wrapped up systems vs. strung out, piecemeal ejection this season so that muddles the water some. But there's definitely a good signal for a storm later next week.
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 31, 2019 18:02:15 GMT -6
There's multiple pulses of energy riding through the longwave with a slug of Pacific moisture connecting with some cold air on the FV3. There certainly could be something interesting brewing...
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Post by bororug on Jan 31, 2019 18:13:01 GMT -6
Burst of Light rain as I’m sitting at a gas station in my truck just south of Highway 110/67 S in Desoto. Temp: 27 according to my truck.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 31, 2019 18:14:58 GMT -6
Cld be brewing i agree. But i wld bet that it may take a couple storm systems before we get one far enough south. Thats why im thinking weekend or later. Im not saying 2 more weeks. Im saying a week to 10 days. I think going nws forecasts are consistent.
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 31, 2019 18:27:00 GMT -6
Boy I do not like the trends for the metro You can see the moisture moving more morth and east out of Springfield composite. I thing the wwa needs to expand to the metro Franklin Warren st.charles and st.louis counties by 8 pm
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gonefishin - WashMO
Junior Forecaster
Washington, Franklin County, MO
Posts: 491
Snowfall Events: 2013-2014: A lot!
2014-2015: If you forecast it, it will come!
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Post by gonefishin - WashMO on Jan 31, 2019 18:30:15 GMT -6
Boy I do not like the trends for the metro You can see the moisture moving more morth and east out of Springfield composite. I thing the wwa needs to expand to the metro Franklin Warren st.charles and st.louis counties by 8 pm I don’t see that it’s moving far enough north to hit Franklin. Which radar are you looking at?
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 31, 2019 18:31:55 GMT -6
If you loop composite the brown drizzle path is expanding it's the NOAA radar
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 31, 2019 18:56:01 GMT -6
Are those flocks of geese by northern Morgan county on radar by lake of the ozarks
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gonefishin - WashMO
Junior Forecaster
Washington, Franklin County, MO
Posts: 491
Snowfall Events: 2013-2014: A lot!
2014-2015: If you forecast it, it will come!
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Post by gonefishin - WashMO on Jan 31, 2019 19:09:47 GMT -6
Can someone either give me the website or post the link of the radar that is picking up the drizzle the best. None of what I’ve seen is picking it up.
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Post by maddogchief on Jan 31, 2019 19:13:23 GMT -6
Clipper to my south, clipper to my north, here I am, stuck in the middle with you.
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Post by maddogchief on Jan 31, 2019 19:17:26 GMT -6
I believe a couple things need to happen before we get a clear picture of next week. The first pattern change needs to occur. We need to get the Sunday storm out of the way. Model solutions will continue to be all over the place until that happens I believe.
What we do have is a really, really good signal that from Wednesday through next weekend, there is a chance of a multitude of winter weather, all determined by what impulses do and the strength of highs. One other thing I’ve noticed is that sometimes the American models have a high in the SE, other times they don’t. Same with a high over the eastern lakes.
I say look for consistency of the highs, and you’ll likely get track and subsequent precip type.
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Post by toddatfarmington on Jan 31, 2019 19:21:38 GMT -6
Ice pellets 3mi E KFAM
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 31, 2019 19:54:22 GMT -6
Just a little sleet/frz drizzle in the first little pocket here.
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Post by jmg378s on Jan 31, 2019 20:03:57 GMT -6
Are those flocks of geese by northern Morgan county on radar by lake of the ozarks Seems like a reasonable guess given returns are moving at 30kts, at or below 11kft, have low CC (implying non-meteorological), and high ZDR (implying large length to height ratio).
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 31, 2019 20:19:22 GMT -6
Looks like a lot of warmth and rain next week.
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Post by dschreib on Jan 31, 2019 20:20:15 GMT -6
Sleet and I guess freezing rain in Freeburg, NA, Marissa, Sparta. Sitting in Sparta DQ looking at the street light. Could there be flakes mixing in?
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Post by snowjunky on Jan 31, 2019 20:26:33 GMT -6
Looks like a lot of warmth and rain next week. Great. More rain and mud. Ugh.
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Jan 31, 2019 20:32:44 GMT -6
Sleet and I guess freezing rain in Freeburg, NA, Marissa, Sparta. Sitting in Sparta DQ looking at the street light. Could there be flakes mixing in? Yea I think a little of everything is falling...
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Post by dschreib on Jan 31, 2019 20:49:58 GMT -6
Mostly sleet. But tiny. Slizzle.
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Post by amstilost on Jan 31, 2019 21:00:10 GMT -6
Looks like I have freezing rain in De Soto. Temp 30*
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 31, 2019 21:00:47 GMT -6
Looks like a lot of warmth and rain next week. I think the front crashes through and stalls out which may provide the running board for winter precip, but that's just me sticking my neck out at this point. It could blow up in my face.
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