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Post by bororug on Jan 31, 2019 21:02:12 GMT -6
Looks like I have freezing rain in De Soto. Temp 30* I concur. Light freezing rain..temp:30
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Post by tedrick65 on Jan 31, 2019 21:03:34 GMT -6
Mostly sleet. But tiny. Slizzle. "Slizzle"? Ollie Raymand would be proud...
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 31, 2019 21:04:36 GMT -6
Another little pocket of light sleet just came through but didn't amount to much. This is looking less impressive by the minute, not that it was ever going to be a big deal. But I did expect a little more than what we are seeing.
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Post by bororug on Jan 31, 2019 21:40:32 GMT -6
Just had a decent rain shower come down. Temp still at 30. Deck & Driveway are iced up.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 31, 2019 21:47:24 GMT -6
00z Icon would be devestating.
Wow
I70 north would see incredible icing ending with moderate snow accumulations.
South of 70 would transition from rain to heavy freezing rain next week at this time for upwards of 18-24 hours.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 31, 2019 21:56:27 GMT -6
Oh, and to top it off, zero degree temps after the precip shuts down.
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Post by unclesam6 on Jan 31, 2019 22:00:42 GMT -6
yeah, that's a slug of moisture similar to 3 weeks ago
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Post by unclesam6 on Jan 31, 2019 22:02:56 GMT -6
winds look to compound the ICON's problems as well.
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Post by unclesam6 on Jan 31, 2019 22:06:50 GMT -6
no true closed low... just pure pacific moisture slamming into an arctic airmass. It's like the upper level circulation over the rockies acts like a slipstream for the moisture plume... or the other way around, I guess
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 31, 2019 22:09:08 GMT -6
Decent sleet shower here now with a slick driveway. Street is ok as of now though. Surprisingly there's a few big snowflakes mixed in too.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 31, 2019 22:15:02 GMT -6
00z gfs has joined team Icon as far as setup is concerned. It is just warmer, which isnt surprising considering its history with shallow artic air.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 31, 2019 22:18:18 GMT -6
Yeah...I caved and looked at the ICON earlier today and wow...it just looks scary along with the FV3. I know nothing of these models, I just thought it was worth mentioning. Something is brewing but there are a LOT of wildly varying solutions right now with all that energy out west trying to interact/phase. If we end up with the loaded gun pattern and arctic air slipping underneath ala ICON/FV3 it could get nasty. The large scale pattern at D7 with a ridge in the east and trof in the W/SW is typically a favorable one for overrunning systems if the cold air is there.
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Post by fojginmo on Jan 31, 2019 22:25:19 GMT -6
It sleeted about 20 minutes ago. Concrete slick but nothing on cars. (currently at 72 & HH in Bollinger Co. .
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 31, 2019 22:27:47 GMT -6
Well the gfs went from an ice storm in Louisiana to an ice storm in Iowa in 6 hours lol. Not sure what to say...seems the icon has been overdoing the cold and playing catch up.
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Post by cardsnweather on Feb 1, 2019 3:23:23 GMT -6
Euro isn’t really worth talking about. Maybe some light backside snow next Thursday.
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Post by bdgwx on Feb 1, 2019 4:50:37 GMT -6
There is a strong signal for a precipitation event from EPS, GEFS, and GEPS for the middle of next week. The pattern is mid level troughing to the west and ridging to the east with an inverted surface trough and high pressure pushing in from the northwest.
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Post by Tilawn on Feb 1, 2019 5:55:53 GMT -6
Skies have cleared over my place and then the temp dropped 4°. Down to 26 now.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 1, 2019 6:10:28 GMT -6
Talk about high bust potential... next week is a tough one. Yes, the signals for unsettled weather are obvious. But that could anything from heavy rain and temps in the 60s... or major ice storm and temps in the 20s. My preference is to follow something similar to the GEM. With such a deep southwest flow I find it unlikely that the arctic air will be able to squeeze as far south as the icy solutions would indicate. At the same time, I dont think we warm as much as the super warm solutions...unless we get a well defined mid-level system to help pull warm air further north. I am shooting temps down the middle for now...and leaning on liquid precip. I will be wrong... that I know. I just dont know how wrong lol. focusing on "unsettled" wording for now.
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 1, 2019 6:24:59 GMT -6
It was 1990/91 I believe where we just had a ton of sleet and Freezing rain. Christmas break was extended for like a week or 2 because it was cloudy and cold, and if the stuff melted, it just refroze at night, spent new year's eve chiseling 4 inches of solid packed ice off the driveway and patio with my parents. I miss the set ups with strong arctic high nosing a very shallow cold airmass in with lots of overrunning precip..temps in the teens or colder. I remember in one of those setups there was freezing rain with temps in the single digits in places in OK and MO. I'm to the point Freezing rain doesn't do it for me much anymore. But prefer ice to more muddy friggin rain. Mud bowl 3.0 coming this weekend as the ground thaws. Wonder what changes you'll have to make to the forecast when you go back to work on Monday Chris..and in what direction.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 1, 2019 6:32:30 GMT -6
6z FV3 is icy.
We have a long way to go, but there is a clear trend in my opinion.
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 1, 2019 6:34:51 GMT -6
Just saw Chris' HUGE red bowtie. Nice.
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 1, 2019 6:49:45 GMT -6
The lowest wind chill I saw in St louis was -28 a couple days ago. Maybe 65 on Sunday, It'll feel 98 degrees warmer, it'll feel great outside standing with mud halfway up to my s$$.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Feb 1, 2019 6:52:31 GMT -6
6z FV3 is icy. We have a long way to go, but there is a clear trend in my opinion. I'm not sure which way this is gonna go. It looks like a classic ice setup but the GFS never really brings enough cold air down, even after the system has passed. Then you have the FV3 and ICON which are very icy, with the EURO showing some backside ice and snow. Models are having a hell of a time with this for sure.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Feb 1, 2019 7:49:36 GMT -6
Love the bow tie, Chris!
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Feb 1, 2019 7:50:26 GMT -6
Well if i had to place a bet, i wld put my chips on a mid 30s, lack of diurnal temperature change next week for most of the metro as these waves of disturbances ride up and over the region. The nw sections of metro shld be watched for glazing on tree limbs. Other than that we shld watch the cold air closely as each wave exits for the potential of pulling in just a bit more cold air because its going to depend on the strength of the next wave. Deep cold air then gets into the mix with the final piece of energy over the weekend so we can watch for moisture availability for light snow. Until models come to better consensus, this is the scenario playing out in my head.
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Post by ElKay23 - Columbia, IL on Feb 1, 2019 8:21:38 GMT -6
Wow, that’s really... red. What’s the story with it? (I’m sure there is one), I missed it.
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 1, 2019 8:31:45 GMT -6
Sorry folks, no steak dinners this go round. The hi yesterday was 28 at 1159pm. Make sure to play the great midwestern steak dinner sweepstakes...next time.
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Post by Labrat-O'Fallon IL on Feb 1, 2019 9:02:18 GMT -6
Wow, that’s really... red. What’s the story with it? (I’m sure there is one), I missed it. It's national wear red day for heart disease.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 1, 2019 9:04:32 GMT -6
The euro actually had quite a bit of ice before the changeover to snow. It’s hard to tell how much but looks like a significant amount for parts of the area
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gonefishin - WashMO
Junior Forecaster
Washington, Franklin County, MO
Posts: 491
Snowfall Events: 2013-2014: A lot!
2014-2015: If you forecast it, it will come!
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Post by gonefishin - WashMO on Feb 1, 2019 9:15:45 GMT -6
Sorry folks, no steak dinners this go round. The hi yesterday was 28 at 1159pm. Make sure to play the great midwestern steak dinner sweepstakes...next time. TI and I would settle for prime rib night at Johnny's. Franklin/Warren County has to stick together, yo!
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