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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Feb 1, 2019 9:21:23 GMT -6
Definitely something to keep an eye on. For sure need to see how things evolve this weekend with the chaos. Ive seen this kind of pattern where stl is getting rain and 34 and columbia is getting ice multiple times in my short young life so that scenario rings out loud in my head but who knows where things land...plenty of time to watch things unfold.
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Post by ElKay23 - Columbia, IL on Feb 1, 2019 9:38:32 GMT -6
Wow, that’s really... red. What’s the story with it? (I’m sure there is one), I missed it. It's national wear red day for heart disease. Oh, yes, forgot. I’ll wear a Cardinal cap!
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 1, 2019 9:43:40 GMT -6
12z icon has an ice storm still.
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 1, 2019 9:49:48 GMT -6
icon would be lights out. Literally
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Post by snowjunky on Feb 1, 2019 10:00:00 GMT -6
12z icon has an ice storm still. I am going with “singing in the rain” for $200 Pat.
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Post by landscaper on Feb 1, 2019 10:00:45 GMT -6
The Icon and FV3 Gfs have been very consistent on their setup, the Euro and Gfs keep going back and forth somewhat on there solutions. The common theme is the same a series of cold highs pressing with a series of Southwest lows, as Chris mentioned tons of different outcomes are possible. Definitely a potential watcher
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 1, 2019 10:03:15 GMT -6
Ya the ICON has been showing a crippling ice storm for several runs now. It’s done as well as any other model recently so it’s solution carries some weight. I think it does have a cold bias but even taking that into account it’s plenty cold for ice
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Post by landscaper on Feb 1, 2019 10:04:45 GMT -6
The temp contrasts on the models are crazy, you have 50s-60’s in southern Missouri and 20’s-Low 30’s I70 North the old I70 borderline storm
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Post by unclesam6 on Feb 1, 2019 10:08:01 GMT -6
The temp contrasts on the models are crazy, you have 50s-60’s in southern Missouri and 20’s-Low 30’s I70 North the old I70 borderline storm Baroclinicity at it's finest.
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 1, 2019 10:22:55 GMT -6
gfs has some ice.. not a whole lot..kinda getting there
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Post by STGOutdoors on Feb 1, 2019 10:29:04 GMT -6
GFS has come in quite a bit colder and seems to be trending toward the ICON. Then it has another wave with borderline temperatures Friday night into Sat. If that trends colder as well we are looking at a lot of ice. Anything is on the table at this point from mostly plain rain to a big time ice storm.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 1, 2019 10:31:47 GMT -6
GFS is slowly but surely trending towards the FV3 and ICON...EC is still kinda out there with it's own solution. Maybe it will start to move in that direction with the 12z run. It really wants to bring the whole storm out in one piece whereas other models are more strung out.
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Post by landscaper on Feb 1, 2019 10:36:00 GMT -6
Gem is basically the warmest solution with all rain to cold solution
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Post by STGOutdoors on Feb 1, 2019 10:57:46 GMT -6
Gem is basically the warmest solution with all rain to cold solution Any wishcasting aside, the GEM has far and away been the biggest piece of crap model this year. Even when we get close to the event, its still flopping around. We could normally deal with it and its cold bias, but even that has been inconsistent.
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Post by landscaper on Feb 1, 2019 11:07:20 GMT -6
I totally agree with you on the Gem
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 1, 2019 11:09:21 GMT -6
12z ukmet looks like an overrunning event on the 24 hour charts.
Looks like waves instead of one big piece.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Feb 1, 2019 11:30:10 GMT -6
I predict the biggest traffic tie ups this weekend will not be on any of the highways in the area. It will be at the car washes.
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Post by Tilawn on Feb 1, 2019 11:34:10 GMT -6
I predict the biggest traffic tie ups this weekend will not be on any of the highways in the area. It will be at the car washes. That is already taking place out here. I don’t understand why yet but the side of the streets and roads are melting today and the vehicles are just going to get dirty once again before most make it home to their garages
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Post by cardsnweather on Feb 1, 2019 11:34:45 GMT -6
The euro actually had quite a bit of ice before the changeover to snow. It’s hard to tell how much but looks like a significant amount for parts of the area Looking at it now I see that. It’d be nice if there were some better precipitation depiction charts on there regarding ice considering how much I pay. Unless I’m missing something.
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Post by cardsnweather on Feb 1, 2019 11:35:07 GMT -6
42 and it feels so good.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Feb 1, 2019 11:39:31 GMT -6
FV3 is pretty similar to the GFS. Little warmer than it has been which would keep most of the viewing area rain for the majority of the event. Then has the second system Friday night which would be ice and snow.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 1, 2019 11:45:09 GMT -6
FV3 is pretty similar to the GFS. Little warmer than it has been which would keep most of the viewing area rain for the majority of the event. Then has the second system Friday night which would be ice and snow. I'm a big fan of that run up here lol. Nice
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 1, 2019 12:01:53 GMT -6
That’s a huge ice storm on the FV3
A little concerning how similar it and the ICON are
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Feb 1, 2019 12:07:30 GMT -6
I predict the biggest traffic tie ups this weekend will not be on any of the highways in the area. It will be at the car washes. That is already taking place out here. I don’t understand why yet but the side of the streets and roads are melting today and the vehicles are just going to get dirty once again before most make it home to their garages Im a big fan of getting the salt washed off asap even if it means your car picks up more gunk on the way home. Obviously its corrosive and its causing pox marks on my driveway. Just feels good to start over. There shldnt be a need to throw down any more salt for a week and the rain hopefully will wash alot of this away.
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Post by landscaper on Feb 1, 2019 12:31:44 GMT -6
Yes Gfs FV3 is very icy for the metro and north, looks like the Icon
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 1, 2019 12:35:09 GMT -6
The euro is certainly different
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Post by maddogchief on Feb 1, 2019 12:37:10 GMT -6
Problem with the FV3 is consistency. At this point it is throwing darts. Compare 12z today to 12z yesterday as well as all of them in between and the picture isn’t all that clear.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 1, 2019 12:40:54 GMT -6
I’m one run the euro went from a flat wave to a massive wrapped up cyclone
Only slightly different
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bob
Junior Forecaster
Posts: 326
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Post by bob on Feb 1, 2019 12:44:02 GMT -6
wsc would the wrapped up system be better for snow?
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Post by landscaper on Feb 1, 2019 12:44:50 GMT -6
Euro is on its own right now, no other models or ensembles show that solution
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