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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 1, 2019 12:45:33 GMT -6
I’m one run the euro went from a flat wave to a massive wrapped up cyclone Only slightly different Classic euro bias. Does this at this range consistently. Only reason it gets any weight is the trend this season for wrapped up lows.
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Post by cardsnweather on Feb 1, 2019 12:45:39 GMT -6
That would be a wet end of the week.
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 1, 2019 12:45:48 GMT -6
euro always over amplifies this far out.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 1, 2019 12:46:43 GMT -6
wsc would the wrapped up system be better for snow? It would pull too far north for STL and maybe even me as modeled. It's a heavy outlier though.
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Post by landscaper on Feb 1, 2019 12:46:50 GMT -6
No , the Euro solution would be all rain to cold for St. Louis, the low tracks northwest of us . This is never a good setup. We want a weaker slower ejecting system to all the colder air and high pressure to build in.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 1, 2019 12:48:40 GMT -6
Euro would have a severe weather risk here Thursday
That run is a outlier for sure. Wouldn’t put much stock in it unless it shows that solution for several runs in a row
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 1, 2019 12:49:43 GMT -6
Starting to see a very rough consensus that the NW half of the CWA will be most likely to see prolonged icing/frozen precip next week...models seem to want to stall out the freeze line close to the metro setting up the classic battleground.
The EURO sure didn't clear anything up...
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Feb 1, 2019 13:01:23 GMT -6
I predict the biggest traffic tie ups this weekend will not be on any of the highways in the area. It will be at the car washes. That is already taking place out here. I don’t understand why yet but the side of the streets and roads are melting today and the vehicles are just going to get dirty once again before most make it home to their garages Everything around here is already pretty dry so they won't get too dirty. But. yeah, it's never made sense to me to get the vehicle washed when the roads are still loaded with slop.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Feb 1, 2019 13:03:25 GMT -6
Starting to see a very rough consensus that the NW half of the CWA will be most likely to see prolonged icing/frozen precip next week...models seem to want to stall out the freeze line close to the metro setting up the classic battleground. The EURO sure didn't clear anything up... Im not surprised. Thats pretty consistent with my thoughts. I wld say wentzville troy warrenton and those kinds of places cld see some icing conditions.
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Post by rb1108 on Feb 1, 2019 13:24:13 GMT -6
Starting to see a very rough consensus that the NW half of the CWA will be most likely to see prolonged icing/frozen precip next week...models seem to want to stall out the freeze line close to the metro setting up the classic battleground. The EURO sure didn't clear anything up... Im not surprised. Thats pretty consistent with my thoughts. I wld say wentzville troy warrenton and those kinds of places cld see some icing conditions. You didn't include Union. Why? lol
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Post by mosue56 on Feb 1, 2019 13:48:16 GMT -6
Hmmmnm- severe or ice? What is the preference?
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mrbogs
Weather Weenie
Posts: 19
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Post by mrbogs on Feb 1, 2019 13:52:02 GMT -6
Hmmmnm- severe or ice? What is the preference? How about severe icing!
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Post by unclesam6 on Feb 1, 2019 13:57:52 GMT -6
Someone mentioned a page or two back about model verification rankings.
Where's that data found at?
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Post by unclesam6 on Feb 1, 2019 14:00:20 GMT -6
I’d give them a close second. In my opinion they have all done very well out especially in the long range. And the underdog ICON..well I don’t think people give that model enough credit. It’s in in my top three list for long range trends right now with the EURO and the FV3. Its verification scores are third, so that makes sense. This is what I am referring to
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Feb 1, 2019 14:02:54 GMT -6
Im not surprised. Thats pretty consistent with my thoughts. I wld say wentzville troy warrenton and those kinds of places cld see some icing conditions. You didn't include Union. Why? lol Union will be 33 with inches and inches of rain....glorious rain.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Feb 1, 2019 14:04:32 GMT -6
Hmmmnm- severe or ice? What is the preference? How about severe icing! I prefer severe thunderstorms over icing. I need new siding and a roof.
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Post by mosue56 on Feb 1, 2019 14:16:16 GMT -6
We will see what we will see next week! I’m not getting all shook up about either til we get past this warm lovely weekend!
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 1, 2019 14:17:52 GMT -6
I'm rooting against the next storm...I'm supposed to be headed to S IL to hunt snow geese next weekend and I could do without a crippling ice storm. I'd take the EURO for a dollar.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Feb 1, 2019 14:44:56 GMT -6
I'm rooting against the next storm...I'm supposed to be headed to S IL to hunt snow geese next weekend and I could do without a crippling ice storm. I'd take the EURO for a dollar. isnt next weekend a couple events away?
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Post by STGOutdoors on Feb 1, 2019 14:45:48 GMT -6
Starting to look like more unneeded rain.
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Post by landscaper on Feb 1, 2019 14:57:18 GMT -6
Maybe for you way down south definitely not central and northern mo
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Post by landscaper on Feb 1, 2019 14:59:47 GMT -6
The GEFS and GEPS look amazing from late next week on, both have several heavier waves of precipitation from the south along with temps near or below freezing. They are printing out 2-3” frozen qpf amounts
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Feb 1, 2019 15:50:54 GMT -6
Confidence increasing and model trends support a mainly rain event next week as waves ride along the boundary in what could result in a very wet period. The process of allowing cold air to penetrate is going to be gradual and i stand by my earlier assertion that we may have to wait until weekend or even the following week for frozen precip. There could be freezing precip in the nw outlying areas from time to time but the temp is going to rock back and forth in the 30s...in fact todays 12z suite, my thinking may not be warm enough. If we can get a break in these waves it may allow some coldee air to filter in but that sw flow means business. On the gfs, taken at face value, we wldnt be thinking winter wx for 2 weeks except for some minor skirmishes. Im surprised by that but am not thinking that is realistic.
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Post by rb1108 on Feb 1, 2019 16:12:19 GMT -6
Confidence increasing and model trends support a mainly rain event next week as waves ride along the boundary in what could result in a very wet period. The process of allowing cold air to penetrate is going to be gradual and i stand by my earlier assertion that we may have to wait until weekend or even the following week for frozen precip. There could be freezing precip in the nw outlying areas from time to time but the temp is going to rock back and forth in the 30s...in fact todays 12z suite, my thinking may not be warm enough. If we can get a break in these waves it may allow some coldee air to filter in but that sw flow means business. On the gfs, taken at face value, we wldnt be thinking winter wx for 2 weeks except for some minor skirmishes. Im surprised by that but am not thinking that is realistic. Are you talking early next week as all rain? People were saying the Wed/Thurs period had ice potential.
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 1, 2019 16:15:22 GMT -6
lol
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Post by STGOutdoors on Feb 1, 2019 16:16:46 GMT -6
Yea. 18z Gfs is WAY north. Starting to look real warm and rainy! I can honestly say I've never seen this kind of set up go that far north but hey what's typical anymore these days.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Feb 1, 2019 16:27:54 GMT -6
Gfs does show significant snow and ice with wave 2 though. What a mess.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 1, 2019 16:32:17 GMT -6
How can model confidence be increasing with anything besides the Icon?
The gfs didn't have anything resembling it's current appearance 24 hours ago lol.
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Post by landscaper on Feb 1, 2019 16:33:31 GMT -6
You guys it’s 6-7 days out please don’t make crazy predictions every model run, it’s like the battle between the ice predictors and the rain predictors. Most models are now focused on Thursday-Saturday for any winter weather. Anything before then looks like rain. So many things could and will change between now and then. Pretty much every model has some form of wintry weather here by next week at this time. I like the setup a lot, I would like to see a little stronger high pressure and push with the cold air, but right now I think we’re in a good spot.
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Post by landscaper on Feb 1, 2019 16:38:12 GMT -6
The models are going to continue there fluctuations every cycle. Probably 100-200 miles each cycle. Some runs are going to look good and some not so good. And I have to agree, the most consistent model all this week has been the Icon. The gfs keeps jumping around the euro has bounced around a lot. The super gfs has been somewhat consistent as well. Watch the ensembles as well, they are great guidance on trends.
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