|
Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Feb 1, 2019 16:46:55 GMT -6
Confidence increasing and model trends support a mainly rain event next week as waves ride along the boundary in what could result in a very wet period. The process of allowing cold air to penetrate is going to be gradual and i stand by my earlier assertion that we may have to wait until weekend or even the following week for frozen precip. There could be freezing precip in the nw outlying areas from time to time but the temp is going to rock back and forth in the 30s...in fact todays 12z suite, my thinking may not be warm enough. If we can get a break in these waves it may allow some coldee air to filter in but that sw flow means business. On the gfs, taken at face value, we wldnt be thinking winter wx for 2 weeks except for some minor skirmishes. Im surprised by that but am not thinking that is realistic. Are you talking early next week as all rain? People were saying the Wed/Thurs period had ice potential. I have doubts on ice potential all week. With wave after wave, there isnt enough break for cold air to filter in. This is what im thinking, not necessarily going by one model. Some models are showing potential for ice but...we will see. I think weekend when the waves slow down then we start to see enough cold air filtering in but the precip is ending too. Sw flow is pretty strong but i guess it will depend on how strong the surface high is.
|
|
|
Post by Snowman99 on Feb 1, 2019 17:13:22 GMT -6
it's hot
|
|
|
Post by ajd446 on Feb 1, 2019 17:15:41 GMT -6
I really wish this weekends 70s would stay around. Also I am really concerned of widespread 4to8 inch amounds of rain and flooding. I am totally discounting freezing rains We should be warm for the next 10 days
|
|
|
Post by Snowman99 on Feb 1, 2019 17:20:44 GMT -6
lol
|
|
|
Post by landscaper on Feb 1, 2019 17:24:41 GMT -6
This site is like an episode of Saturday night live at times
|
|
|
Post by RyanD on Feb 1, 2019 17:30:00 GMT -6
Next week looks messy. No way the models will get a good handle on it yet. I don't think it is responsible to predict any one precip type as being dominate except that it will certainly start as rain. Using the GFS as guidance I think will also backfire. The new super GFS seems to be doing much better of late. It and the Icon seem to be the most consistent for next week. All precip types are on the table with the favorable areas NW of STL seemingly in the best position for frozen stuff.
|
|
|
Post by RyanD on Feb 1, 2019 17:31:11 GMT -6
I really wish this weekends 70s would stay around. Also I am really concerned of widespread 4to8 inch amounds of rain and flooding. I am totally discounting freezing rains We should be warm for the next 10 days Lol, warm for 10 days With a -epo I think that's wishful thinking.
|
|
|
Post by Snowman99 on Feb 1, 2019 17:36:56 GMT -6
Chris should make a new thread for the start of spring this weekend.
|
|
|
Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 1, 2019 17:43:58 GMT -6
18z fv3 goes boom.
|
|
|
Post by landscaper on Feb 1, 2019 17:50:21 GMT -6
It has about 8-12” of ice and snow by next Saturday, lock it in
|
|
|
Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 1, 2019 17:53:13 GMT -6
Lock it in. I will be back in cincinati next weekend.
By the way, tomorrow is the anniversary of what I call... "The Big Wiff"
|
|
|
Post by Snowman99 on Feb 1, 2019 18:00:33 GMT -6
i have another name for 'the big whiff' rhymes with 'the boil cluck'
|
|
|
Post by landscaper on Feb 1, 2019 18:09:17 GMT -6
The ground hog day blizzard, I mean “sleet fest”
|
|
|
Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 1, 2019 18:09:54 GMT -6
Sleetmagedon
|
|
|
Post by jason0101 on Feb 1, 2019 18:21:28 GMT -6
i have another name for 'the big whiff' rhymes with 'the boil cluck' I see what you did there...
|
|
|
Post by amstilost on Feb 1, 2019 18:23:01 GMT -6
I am certain I was watching Glenn Zimmerman that morning and he had 15-18" totals for the area. As certain as my memory can be.
|
|
|
Post by jason0101 on Feb 1, 2019 18:28:40 GMT -6
I remember expecting the Sleet to change over and literally a 25ish mile shift had occurred..
|
|
|
Post by Snowman99 on Feb 1, 2019 18:30:09 GMT -6
i have PTSD from that storm
|
|
|
Post by toddatfarmington on Feb 1, 2019 18:38:52 GMT -6
Public Service Announcement - Dont Walk on Frozen Bodies of Water
Needless to say, it was attempted today and the person was very unsuccessful
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 1, 2019 18:46:02 GMT -6
My NWS forecast the morning of the Groundhog Day storm was 18-22" of snow with blizzard conditions. I got 3" of sleet...never forget.
|
|
|
Post by maddogchief on Feb 1, 2019 19:07:13 GMT -6
My NWS forecast the morning of the Groundhog Day storm was 18-22" of snow with blizzard conditions. I got 3" of sleet...never forget. I got 18”. My unit was activated, but they released us right in the middle of it. I drove the hour home. One of the funnest ever drives I have ever been on. Almost as much fun as driving through the N. IL blizzard a few years back on my way to a snowmobile trip to N. Wisconsin. We saw the trailer with the sleds on it next to us.
|
|
|
Post by Snowman99 on Feb 1, 2019 19:09:15 GMT -6
Nws just tweeted this. Blah.
|
|
|
Post by STGOutdoors on Feb 1, 2019 19:16:42 GMT -6
i have PTSD from that storm It shows.
|
|
|
Post by landscaper on Feb 1, 2019 19:33:04 GMT -6
That was a crazy one, the models showed for a couple days leading up to it like 2” of ZR in the metro area . That was probably the only time I was ever worried about possibly losing power. Then slowly they trended colder . Then they settled in on 12”-18” and a blizzard warning. I remember we ended up only plowing 3” of sleet in earth city , 8” of snow/sleet in Wentzville and 12” of mostly snow In Troy.
|
|
|
Post by mchafin on Feb 1, 2019 19:37:38 GMT -6
My NWS forecast the morning of the Groundhog Day storm was 18-22" of snow with blizzard conditions. I got 3" of sleet...never forget. I’m trying to remember the forecast for STL County that morning. Honestly, I was pretty sick and don’t remember the build up and final forecast before all went to hell.
|
|
|
Post by landscaper on Feb 1, 2019 19:46:26 GMT -6
Chris, I still remember the November 30 2006 ice storm, the blog had not been around very long maybe a year or so. You had talked about the storm all week, and you were confident the cold air was going to be stronger and creep south further than modeled. The morning of the beginning of that storm it was raining hard and temp mid 30’s . It was not forecast to change over until later in the afternoon. I woke up and turned on Fox 2 you were broadcasting live from the truck stop in forestell. That’s about 5 miles west of my house, you reported sleet was mixing in . By the time I took a shower and got ready, it was absolutely pouring sleet. In 15 minutes everything was covered and the roads were terrible. It was all down hill by lunch there was 3-4” of sleet and snow. That evening it switched over to heavy freezing rain and 25 degrees. All night long trees were coming down all over St. Louis , transformers were blowing left and right. It was probably one of the craziest storms I can remember .
|
|
|
Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Feb 1, 2019 20:21:55 GMT -6
Public Service Announcement - Dont Walk on Frozen Bodies of Water Needless to say, it was attempted today and the person was very unsuccessful Wife and I were talking about that last night when Fox 2 showed the lake at boat house.
|
|
|
Post by ndolan387 on Feb 1, 2019 20:50:02 GMT -6
I chose the Feb. 1-2 Groundhog Day storm as my senior inquiry project this semester! No undergrad has done it yet, I believe!
|
|
|
Post by jmg378s on Feb 1, 2019 20:54:24 GMT -6
By the way, that tornado in Cuba a few days ago was rated EF4.
|
|
|
Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 1, 2019 20:56:34 GMT -6
I've been under 2 blizzard warnings and both have been huge disappointments.
When something of that magnitude is predicted, wait until it actually is happening to get excited lol.
|
|