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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Feb 2, 2019 7:29:39 GMT -6
Rodents can't predict weather. That is all. I say stuff like that in the fall. Worms and caterpillars cant predict weather, neither can trees, or squirrels. Neither can the canadien or the gem.lol
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Feb 2, 2019 7:38:08 GMT -6
General rule of thumb... A cloudy and or foggy start to Groundhog Day in your location equals early Spring, other things to look for least around here in early to mid February is birds like geese and ducks already migrating north, Robins singing and wanting to nest, swollen buds on trees and bushes, and bulbs already emerging. Based on that... We've got the clouds and the fog, I've seen birds already making some good pushes north the past couple of weeks. Buds are not swollen however, nor is bulbs emerging (least not mine). So we've got a bit of a mixed signal going on. I'd say it's nether its a mix. Still some Winter to go, but nothing locking so we get some warmth as well. Week of warm, week of cold, another week of warmth, followed again by cold... I.E. the St. Louis normal.
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Post by ajd446 on Feb 2, 2019 7:46:44 GMT -6
I am issuing a very messy Saturday warning. If you wash cars don't go anywhere lol. Extreme sweating on the rds as the ground rapidly thaws
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Post by Tilawn on Feb 2, 2019 7:58:24 GMT -6
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Post by dschreib on Feb 2, 2019 8:05:35 GMT -6
My cat threw up...does that mean anything? Nothing at all. Probably wasn't even sick. Just being a typical cat a$$hole.
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Post by tedrick65 on Feb 2, 2019 8:06:35 GMT -6
...Most mornings, a beer isn’t what you want... I'm not sure everyone on this board would agree with you
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Post by dschreib on Feb 2, 2019 8:07:39 GMT -6
All these "car wash" references. I rolled 240k on my 2004 Silverado this week. The last time I took it through a car wash, all I did was blow a bunch of paint off that was covering up the rust underneath. Lesson learned.
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Post by dschreib on Feb 2, 2019 8:08:48 GMT -6
...Most mornings, a beer isn’t what you want... I'm not sure everyone on this board would agree with you And if you've had too much ICON the night before, sometimes the best thing to do is hit the ICON again first thing in the morning.
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Post by tedrick65 on Feb 2, 2019 8:09:49 GMT -6
All these "car wash" references. I rolled 240k on my 2004 Silverado this week. The last time I took it through a car wash, all I did was blow a bunch of paint off that was covering up the rust underneath. Lesson learned. Have an '09 Sonata with nearly 250K. I consider winter weather road grime to be a protective coating.
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Post by pbc12871 on Feb 2, 2019 8:11:05 GMT -6
Hair of the dog? Our problems run deep here.
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Post by dschreib on Feb 2, 2019 8:16:48 GMT -6
Foggy out there, by the way.
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Post by rb1108 on Feb 2, 2019 8:40:16 GMT -6
Has any winter weather next week or next weekend been officially written off? Or is it too early to say?
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Post by STGOutdoors on Feb 2, 2019 8:52:32 GMT -6
All these "car wash" references. I rolled 240k on my 2004 Silverado this week. The last time I took it through a car wash, all I did was blow a bunch of paint off that was covering up the rust underneath. Lesson learned. Have an '09 Sonata with nearly 250K. I consider winter weather road grime to be a protective coating. My 2004 F-150 has 220k and runs and feels great. Got some farm dirt on the frame that I believe I'll just let be .
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Post by dschreib on Feb 2, 2019 8:55:33 GMT -6
Good morning to kill geese.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 2, 2019 8:56:41 GMT -6
Has any winter weather next week or next weekend been officially written off? Or is it too early to say? Pretty early considering the model spread. Fv3 remains wintry. There will be rain next week, with any winter weather being Thursday-Saturday.
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Post by Tilawn on Feb 2, 2019 8:57:04 GMT -6
Has any winter weather next week or next weekend been officially written off? Or is it too early to say? Check back a week from tomorrow and we will have a better handle on what happens this coming week.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Feb 2, 2019 9:10:26 GMT -6
My cat threw up...does that mean anything? That means hairball. Feed him some petroleum jelly. It helps
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Feb 2, 2019 9:15:49 GMT -6
Rodents can't predict weather. That is all. I say stuff like that in the fall. Worms and caterpillars cant predict weather, neither can trees, or squirrels. Neither can the canadien or the gem.lol And there's always the question of defining "6 more weeks of winter" and "just around the corner." Just around the corner can mean 6 more weeks. This is the only sort of ground hog I care about
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Post by rb1108 on Feb 2, 2019 9:16:32 GMT -6
Has any winter weather next week or next weekend been officially written off? Or is it too early to say? Pretty early considering the model spread. Fv3 remains wintry. There will be rain next week, with any winter weather being Thursday-Saturday. I would think it's probable that parts of the area will see winter weather late next week, but exactly where and to what extent is anyone's guess.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 2, 2019 9:35:09 GMT -6
Icon hits Northern Illinois with a major ice storm Tuesday-Wednesday before setting up for ice late week in STL.
It has flipped back to a series of waves instead of a wrapped up cyclone.
Interesting again.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 2, 2019 9:49:24 GMT -6
I'm almost ready to loose interest in next weeks system with models generally trending toward the EC with a cutting cyclone vs. overrunning waves. But I feel like models still don't have a real good handle on it yet. I just don't see much push of any real cold air ahead of the storm and that's obviously an issue.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 2, 2019 9:54:36 GMT -6
I'm almost ready to loose interest in next weeks system with models generally trending toward the EC with a cutting cyclone vs. overrunning waves. But I feel like models still don't have a real good handle on it yet. I just don't see much push of any real cold air ahead of the storm and that's obviously an issue. I haven't had much interest in next week either. Maybe if we can get the energy to eject in multiple waves we can get some icing late next week with the second or third impulse of energy
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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Feb 2, 2019 10:02:14 GMT -6
I'm not sure everyone on this board would agree with you And if you've had too much ICON the night before, sometimes the best thing to do is hit the ICON again first thing in the morning. I hit the ICON atleast twice a day. It’s some good S#%! and I’m not just saying that because I’m addicted.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 2, 2019 10:07:38 GMT -6
12z gfs looks icy too.
The euro is on its own.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Feb 2, 2019 10:09:41 GMT -6
12z gfs looks icy too. The euro is on its own. Icy for western and northern mo. It just stops parks the freezing line north of I-70 which is typical of an ice storm, but doesn't come far enough south. As of right now this is a lovely 35 degree rain.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Feb 2, 2019 10:12:10 GMT -6
Gem says the ice line makes it to I-44. A big jump to a colder solution.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 2, 2019 10:14:23 GMT -6
Gem says the ice line makes it to I-44. A big jump to a colder solution. All 3 global runs so far are trending towards overrunning and ice, not a euro solution. We are very much still in this.
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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Feb 2, 2019 10:40:02 GMT -6
One interesting key ingredient showing up on the FV3 and GEM is they are now developing a relatively strong area of high pressure up north. This will help block the systems northward progression and funnel in somewhat colder air into the system. If that’s to be believed and the other models start seeing this...then we have a game changer and are in serious trouble.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 2, 2019 10:48:20 GMT -6
One interesting key ingredient showing up on the FV3 and GEM is they are now developing a relatively strong area of high pressure up north. This will help block the systems northward progression and funnel in somewhat colder air into the system. If that’s to be believed and the other models start seeing this...then we have a game changer and are in serious trouble. The position of the ridge has been pretty consistently too far north for us...we need the axis to shift a out 150mi S. Possible...but I'm not betting on it. There's just nothing coming through in the N branch that would get the cold air in place this far S.
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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Feb 2, 2019 11:56:35 GMT -6
One interesting key ingredient showing up on the FV3 and GEM is they are now developing a relatively strong area of high pressure up north. This will help block the systems northward progression and funnel in somewhat colder air into the system. If that’s to be believed and the other models start seeing this...then we have a game changer and are in serious trouble. The position of the ridge has been pretty consistently too far north for us...we need the axis to shift a out 150mi S. Possible...but I'm not betting on it. There's just nothing coming through in the N branch that would get the cold air in place this far S. Agreed... I’m not really seeing how the models are developing as much shallow cold air as they are right now. Not to mention the abundance of moisture this thing has...it’s very likely the warm wedge is undone on modeling as it always is when dealing with the Gulf Stream. I’m hoping for atleast 150 mile south so we just get sleet/snow otherwise I’ll take rain. Remembering what our area had to do in 2006 to get by was all I care to ever experience. Imagine having the whole neighborhood sleeping in our house with the generator trying to swap out heat for water just to shower and stay warm fir 2 weeks. Not again...thankfully now we have a generator to power everything at once but I don’t want that chaos again. It’s just a weird awkward feeling but something we as neighbors do living out in the stix. Always last to get anything fixed around here.
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