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Post by dschreib on Feb 2, 2019 12:01:17 GMT -6
Snows/blues/specks are hanging out in NA at Old Hwy 13 and Hwy 13. Somebody should come kill them. They crapped on my windshield.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 2, 2019 12:16:11 GMT -6
My snowpack is dying after about 18 days.
Weird that it is 60 degrees warmer and the lake is iced over lol.
Makes for some great scenery.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 2, 2019 12:22:36 GMT -6
12z euro has backed way off its wound up solution.
Who would have thought...
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Post by landscaper on Feb 2, 2019 12:23:25 GMT -6
Euro looks a lot more suppressed and similar to the Gem
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 2, 2019 12:32:20 GMT -6
Euro looks a lot more suppressed and similar to the Gem Lol, it bombs out at hour 144. My snarkiness bit me in the ! BACKSIDE ! this time.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Feb 2, 2019 12:33:00 GMT -6
Euro looks a lot more suppressed and similar to the Gem Lol, it bombs out at hour 144. My snarkiness bit me in the ! BACKSIDE ! this time. Where does it bomb? Cutter?
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 2, 2019 12:40:06 GMT -6
Lol, it bombs out at hour 144. My snarkiness bit me in the ! BACKSIDE ! this time. Where does it bomb? Cutter? I only have it on the 24 hour charts. Goes from 1003 in central Oklahoma to 987 in Michigan. Too far north for the metro and probably me. But getting closer.
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Post by landscaper on Feb 2, 2019 12:41:12 GMT -6
Yea, it looked like it was coming in weaker and flatter with more cold air then totally bombed out going just north of St. Louis with rain to cold
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 2, 2019 12:43:01 GMT -6
Gem says the ice line makes it to I-44. A big jump to a colder solution. All 3 global runs so far are trending towards overrunning and ice, not a euro solution. We are very much still in this. Not here. There is almost no chance here.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 2, 2019 12:49:28 GMT -6
All 3 global runs so far are trending towards overrunning and ice, not a euro solution. We are very much still in this. Not here. There is almost no chance here. I'm not saying you specifically are getting an ice storm. 70 north has the best chance. There will be rain. But plenty of gefs members show ice. It's not a slam dunk that there is no icing for parts of the metro regardless of your confidence.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Feb 2, 2019 12:50:16 GMT -6
Snows/blues/specks are hanging out in NA at Old Hwy 13 and Hwy 13. Somebody should come kill them. They crapped on my windshield. Had a couple of blocks of 75-100 each come over the house this morning. I was glad my car was in the garage
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 2, 2019 12:56:37 GMT -6
We definitely want a flatter look...not the phased solution that the EURO was offering up before. But there has to be a well-timed wave coming through the N branch to pull the cold air down or it won't come together for us.
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Post by Tilawn on Feb 2, 2019 13:31:46 GMT -6
Looks like we could see inches of rain Instead of inches of snow/ice!!
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 2, 2019 13:58:33 GMT -6
EURO still a big ol' cutter...
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 2, 2019 14:36:22 GMT -6
Euro tracks the surface low from Tulsa to STL to Chicago
Not seeing any winter weather with that track
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 2, 2019 14:51:25 GMT -6
18z nam is icy Tuesday night through the metro.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 2, 2019 15:09:29 GMT -6
18z nam is icy Tuesday night through the metro. It has a cold bias. But given the look. It actually could trend colder with sub freezing air to the mo/are border and mid 30s here. Dewpoints in SC IL/IN will play a big role.
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Post by ajd446 on Feb 2, 2019 15:30:02 GMT -6
Nws thinks all rain for st.louis with only slight chances of ice in me mo
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Feb 2, 2019 15:37:27 GMT -6
I feel like there is so much potential showing up on the long range. I definitely like the look and flow of it all. But question is can we get the cold air to move in at the right time with these storm systems in the coming weeks.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 2, 2019 16:07:03 GMT -6
18z gfs takes one hell of a swing at an ice storm for the northern metro.
I wouldn't feel comfortable just writing that scenario off.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Feb 2, 2019 16:12:05 GMT -6
18z gfs takes one hell of a swing at an ice storm for the northern metro. I wouldn't feel comfortable just writing that scenario off. It keeps wanting to trend colder inch by inch. Can't just ignore that, I agree.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 2, 2019 16:39:35 GMT -6
If we can get the separation and the lead wave to come through with energy holding back there will be potential for at least some frozen precip across parts of the area. But if the shortwave comes out in one piece like the EURO it's game over...there's just too much upper ridging downstream across the lakes/OHV in that scenario to get any cold air in place.
This is definitely still way up in the air...I'm not writing anything off yet.
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Post by cozpregon on Feb 2, 2019 16:42:51 GMT -6
To me... the models continue to struggle with the interaction with the northern/southern stream- each model/each run is different somehow. In simplicity... we need to have the northern wave to stay out ahead of the southern- this allows some colder air to come out ahead of it... the more it holds back the better chance we see a cutter with rain to cold. FV3 right now is sheared out and doesn't have much precip at all. Euro has the northern energy way back across ID. Can't say I can rule out at least some ice around here. Needless to say... certainly no consensus with the models right now.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 2, 2019 16:47:20 GMT -6
To me... the models continue to struggle with the interaction with the northern/southern stream- each model/each run is different somehow. In simplicity... we need to have the northern wave to stay out ahead of the southern- this allows some colder air to come out ahead of it... the more it holds back the better chance we see a cutter with rain to cold. FV3 right now is sheared out and doesn't have much precip at all. Euro has the northern energy way back across ID. Can't say I can rule out at least some ice around here. Needless to say... certainly no consensus with the models right now. We need the models to continue to trend with lower heights out front like the nam has driving the low level cold air further South. The nam has freezing rain with an Easterly semi dry wind. That would be a freezing rain profile overnight. But The next day even if we stay on the cold side I doubt we can stay below freezing. We would need cyclogenesis to our SW so surface winds would back from the ENE and NE. The gfs is way different with 50-60s. SSE winds
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 2, 2019 16:47:22 GMT -6
GFS looks pretty similar to the FV3 holding energy back and letting the N stream wave come through...
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 2, 2019 17:37:58 GMT -6
18z fv3 gives the southern metro an ice storm.
Long way to go with this one
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Post by rb1108 on Feb 2, 2019 18:12:29 GMT -6
Channel hive says lots of rain. No ice. Guess it's over
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Post by maddogchief on Feb 2, 2019 18:27:57 GMT -6
18z fv3 gives the southern metro an ice storm. Long way to go with this one You’re exactly right. I think we will have to see how the weekend storm behaves and then exactly how much snow is left. Still think I80 and north maintains the majority of it. Heck, I still have a pack on north and west facing hillsides as well as in the woods. I just wish it would go away.
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Post by maddogchief on Feb 2, 2019 18:29:06 GMT -6
Channel hive says lots of rain. No ice. Guess it's over They are hedging their bets. Right now I’d say we have a 40% chance of something frozen or freezing midweek.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 2, 2019 18:44:29 GMT -6
18z fv3 gives the southern metro an ice storm. Long way to go with this one You’re exactly right. I think we will have to see how the weekend storm behaves and then exactly how much snow is left. Still think I80 and north maintains the majority of it. Heck, I still have a pack on north and west facing hillsides as well as in the woods. I just wish it would go away. If we have 40s tomorrow and near 50 Monday, my snowpack will be gone. Rockford had close to an 18 inch pack, so maybe it is colder there, but I would say you are underestimating how quick this stuff melts at those temperatures.
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