Chris's Corner - This is Winter

GFS is pretty sheared out to. Not much on the backside

I like the 00z ggem. Wagons north lol

Has a strengthening low in the bootheel at hour 96.

That's what I'm saying. The GFS is a hot mess of a model lately...well, mostly.

The gem actually hits along the 70 corridor decently.


There is no where for this to go except East.

I really like where we are at.

Like I said a couple days ago, the models will have a much harder time with this storm then the last one. Ugh.

It's a fat band of 6-10 inches for the north metro east. Hard to believe the lack of interest in that run.

I do too, the blocking high over the top is going to make it tough for the storm to lift too far N. I think the GFS has shifted too far S and we'll see something more in the middle like the 00z GEM and 12z EURO.

Yeah it's pretty good.

Even tho it "only" has 2-3" over my back yard.

I'd take it.

It's hard enough to get any snow.

I just don't see this being that amped and North.

I think it's more likely it's weaker and shearing out taking that track.


Getting a wrapped up system and getting a Northern track requires a phase in this situation.

Because it's more likely the system will be slower and dig more because a stronger system requires a stronger jet rounding the base of the trough.

Which will create stronger vorticity closer to the front of the jet.

Inherently further South.

And because the confluence is pretty stout it has so little room to really amplify.

We'll see

The NAM needs to be tossed.

FWIW, I told StlIrish the same when he up and moved to Denver.

The gfs looks like it starts cyclogenesis off a decent chunk of vorticity that plows through Oklahoma.

Then it still digs a much stronger vorticity into south Central Texas.

At that point everything is strung out.

As the Southern energy consolidates the GFS tries driving the system up the spine of the APPs.

Not likely

for the record - I'm tossing all model solutions, save the Euro. Until the 00z comes in and has to be tossed as well.

I will say this - my deck is now an ice skating rink and my dog seems to think that it's a truckstop bathroom as he's been trying to use it as such. Walter, my dog, is very confused by this snow pack. He's only 2.5 years old and just doesn't know what to do with this snow, other than: eat it, attack the gloves and hoods of anyone venturing out into it, and using it as a restroom. We need more snow so he can assimilate.