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Post by mosue56 on Feb 4, 2019 17:57:27 GMT -6
Let’s just skip Feb! Straight on to spring! And I’m a snow bunny! Pitchers and catchers report in 9 or 10 days! What more do we need? 😎
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 4, 2019 18:11:25 GMT -6
Let’s just skip Feb! Straight on to spring! And I’m a snow bunny! Pitchers and catchers report in 9 or 10 days! What more do we need? 😎 Bryce Harper |
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Post by RyanD on Feb 4, 2019 18:20:07 GMT -6
But numerous people posted an ungodly number of times how snowy february was going to be. Even when it was pretty apparent that at a minimum the first 10 days was a warm wet waste. It needs to dry out, which abviously wont happen. Grrat looking pattern Yep i was one of those. Even when i knew this was a rainy week. I was expecting the se ridge to progress to the east. It will not...if anything ive seen a retrogression further west. February will not go down as i envisioned earlier. Will it get colder? At this point my thinking is our snow will come from a chance encounter with timing. No big snow in sight at this time. We will be wetter than normal but temps will be too warm during precip. The far nw burbs can see some minor icing and we can see a mix over the weekend, but next week will not be a lock into a winter pattern as i previously thought. While the nao is trending down, it seems to want to bounce back up pretty immediately. We can still get big snows but now thats more of a chance encounter instead of a locked in multiple firing of southern storm systems that i had envisioned. Winter is not over. We still have a ways to go....just not as dramatic as i thought. Anyway we still need 6 more inches of snow for my 24 to verify. I think we can get that. Those are pretty bold statements for an entire month mostly based off of GFS I would presume? How can you say the SE ridge won't move east? I'm not saying you're wrong but those are bold statements that fly in the face of your previous Feb predictions just last week. The NAO isn't as important to us as it is to the EC but it will be difficult to lock in any prolonged cold air as long as it is positive. The EPO effects our sensible winter weather more so IMO. Yeah it is a bit further west than we'd like but the cold air also doesn't like to pour into the mountains either. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 4, 2019 18:59:42 GMT -6
Whats left of any snow in the subdivision. Lol  |
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Post by maddogchief on Feb 4, 2019 19:03:27 GMT -6
Easy there everyone. I will make the bold statement of saying winter isn’t over.
Extreme cold for extended periods of time, probably. Winter, definitely not.
1. MJO is moving into phase 8, a winter phase for us. Fast forward about a week, and the effects will be felt.
2. The SE ridge is forecast to move north and east and form a block, ala -NAO.
3. The EPO is still forecast to be negative. At the the same time, the -PNA is supposed to weaken, which will keep the flow from originating from the SW.
4. The op models are clueless beyond this week. That’s why both the ILX and LSX from the NWS stated either very clearly (ILX) or less so (LSX) that they haven’t looked at the weekend or early next week too in depth. They also have more focus on potential flooding this week. Nonetheless, there is hardly any run to run, or model consistency after the weekend.
5. There is still some freezing rain potential if any of these air masses turn out colder than what is forecast or the timing of a wave is off. That’s for later this week.
I for one either want frozen ground or a couple days of sunshine, 60 degrees, and a 20mph breeze. I’m sick of cleaning muddy paws.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Feb 4, 2019 19:13:46 GMT -6
Yep i was one of those. Even when i knew this was a rainy week. I was expecting the se ridge to progress to the east. It will not...if anything ive seen a retrogression further west. February will not go down as i envisioned earlier. Will it get colder? At this point my thinking is our snow will come from a chance encounter with timing. No big snow in sight at this time. We will be wetter than normal but temps will be too warm during precip. The far nw burbs can see some minor icing and we can see a mix over the weekend, but next week will not be a lock into a winter pattern as i previously thought. While the nao is trending down, it seems to want to bounce back up pretty immediately. We can still get big snows but now thats more of a chance encounter instead of a locked in multiple firing of southern storm systems that i had envisioned. Winter is not over. We still have a ways to go....just not as dramatic as i thought. Anyway we still need 6 more inches of snow for my 24 to verify. I think we can get that. Those are pretty bold statements for an entire month mostly based off of GFS I would presume? How can you say the SE ridge won't move east? I'm not saying you're wrong but those are bold statements that fly in the face of your previous Feb predictions just last week. The NAO isn't as important to us as it is to the EC but it will be difficult to lock in any prolonged cold air as long as it is positive. The EPO effects our sensible winter weather more so IMO. Yeah it is a bit further west than we'd like but the cold air also doesn't like to pour into the mountains either. Im backing off what i previously stated abt the cold and snow. I also erroneously mixed two topics together so ill clarify. The comment abt the nw burbs getting icing was for this week only. Not intended to reflect my thghts for feb. For february, i had envisioned cold and significantly above normal snow. Current pattern does not produce snow easily so unless the patrern changes, our snow will come from chance encounters. Im backing down on confidence that feb will be very snowy. We may end up abt normal or slightly above normal for snow in feb. I previously stated that we wld step down into winter starting this weekend. It will be colder and there may be some mixed precip but next week, the se ridge flexes its muscle again. By then weve lost 2 weeks without sig snow. Theres no big snow in sight...in sight means a week to 10 days. We need the ridge to move east. I dont see that happening for a week to 10 days. Beyond that, it could, and we cld still get big snows, heck we cld get big snows before then. But i had envisioned that we wld be getting snow by early next week and that isnt likely. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 4, 2019 19:13:53 GMT -6
Whats left of any snow in the subdivision. Lol There’s still some piles in big parking lots hanging on. I’m sure all the rain this week will wipe them out for good |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 4, 2019 20:07:29 GMT -6
Just looked at the 18z FV3 and its cold and snowy after hour 75 for the region. Euro looks pretty similar
So why is everyone writing this month off?
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Post by maddogchief on Feb 4, 2019 20:19:38 GMT -6
Just looked at the 18z FV3 and its cold and snowy after hour 75 for the region. Euro looks pretty similar So why is everyone writing this month off? A couple runs of the GFS showed a raging SE ridge and a western based through putting us solidly in the SW firehose |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 4, 2019 20:24:32 GMT -6
Just looked at the 18z FV3 and its cold and snowy after hour 75 for the region. Euro looks pretty similar So why is everyone writing this month off? A couple runs of the GFS showed a raging SE ridge and a western based through putting us solidly in the SW firehose Your first mistake was looking at the GFS In all seriousness, I haven’t been looking at the models the past few days and was just suprised how wintery they looked. The Corner made it sound like we were about to get spring in February |
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Post by jeepers on Feb 4, 2019 20:27:48 GMT -6
Let’s just skip Feb! Straight on to spring! And I’m a snow bunny! Pitchers and catchers report in 9 or 10 days! What more do we need? 😎 I want more below freezing temps. Stinks when mud season starts in January. And I want a first round draft pick for the Blues. |
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Post by unclesam6 on Feb 4, 2019 20:34:36 GMT -6
A couple runs of the GFS showed a raging SE ridge and a western based through putting us solidly in the SW firehose Your first mistake was looking at the GFS In all seriousness, I haven’t been looking at the models the past few days and was just suprised how wintery they looked. The Corner made it sound like we were about to get spring in February I mean, it was 70 degrees today. |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Feb 4, 2019 20:54:27 GMT -6
NAM 3KM really jazzed about thunderstorms Tuesday night and again Thursday. Looks like some strong storms as well.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Feb 4, 2019 20:58:52 GMT -6
To be clear im not writing feb off....but the likelihood of it being much above avg snow is lower. Im not writing it off and we still have more snow coming.
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Post by maddogchief on Feb 4, 2019 21:02:09 GMT -6
A couple runs of the GFS showed a raging SE ridge and a western based through putting us solidly in the SW firehose Your first mistake was looking at the GFS In all seriousness, I haven’t been looking at the models the past few days and was just suprised how wintery they looked. The Corner made it sound like we were about to get spring in February Yeah, that’s typical of the board though. If we aren’t under a polar vortex or have snow flying it’s spring talk and how winter will cease to exist forever. |
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Post by snowjunky on Feb 4, 2019 21:31:05 GMT -6
Just saw Glenn’s rain total over the next few days. And of course, up hwy 44 through the metro shows jackpot. Where the hell is Lucy when it rains?
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 4, 2019 23:07:59 GMT -6
Just looked at the 18z FV3 and its cold and snowy after hour 75 for the region. Euro looks pretty similar So why is everyone writing this month off? The fv3 is off it's rocker. It drives h5 vorticity through NMO with torch level heights and we get snow. Yeah that's not crazy amplified. But there is no way.  |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Feb 5, 2019 0:41:54 GMT -6
It's time, once again, for everyone's favorite soap opera...
As the weather model turns....
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Post by jeffcobeeman on Feb 5, 2019 5:22:36 GMT -6
I'm to the point that I don't care whether it snows or not. But if it's not going to snow, then I just wish it would dry out. I'm ready for a month long drought!
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 5, 2019 5:56:29 GMT -6
Chicago under an ice storm warning for tonight. Have fun WSC.
I'm under a mud fest warning.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 5, 2019 6:42:54 GMT -6
Chicago under an ice storm warning for tonight. Have fun WSC. I'm under a mud fest warning. I knew there would be an ice storm in the Midwest! Lol, I don't expect much here with temps around 30 and heavy precip accretion will be difficult. Western counties might get rocked though. 00z euro looked decent for Sunday through midweek. Hopefully we get some snow flying from STL to Chicago. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 5, 2019 6:46:28 GMT -6
I dont usually get as worked about about ZR with temps near 32...especially with heavy rain.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Feb 5, 2019 7:09:25 GMT -6
Werent you here in 93 when we had those big snows in feb chris?
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Feb 5, 2019 7:11:29 GMT -6
I remember your forecast was for 10 to 15 inches of snow with near blizzard conditions. I thought that was 1993. (Referencing your on air comment abt your first day)
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Feb 5, 2019 7:24:46 GMT -6
Happy National Weathermans Day. Your present is in the mail.😂
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Post by snowjunky on Feb 5, 2019 7:31:35 GMT -6
Happy National Weathermans Day. Your present is in the mail.😂 What? You get a present for being right 50% of the time? 😂. JK Chris. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 5, 2019 7:56:11 GMT -6
Werent you here in 93 when we had those big snows in feb chris? Negative. I went on the air February 5, 1994...after the Great Flood. |
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Post by ComoEsJn on Feb 5, 2019 8:07:20 GMT -6
Happy 25th!!
The "history guy who remembers every date possible" had one minor correction to your Facebook post: you guys switched to the Fox affiliation in 1995, not '96, because it coincided with the Rams moving to STL in '95 and Fox network getting the NFL contract for the first time (which Channel 2 played up big-time).
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Post by ElKay23 - Columbia, IL on Feb 5, 2019 8:09:13 GMT -6
Happy work anniversary, Chris!  |
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sullivanjohn
Wishcaster
Sullivan, MO
Posts: 141 
Snowfall Events: Code Monkey
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Post by sullivanjohn on Feb 5, 2019 8:18:25 GMT -6
Happy work anniversary, Chris! Best in the biz Chris!!! Keep up the good work!!! |
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