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Post by ElburnDave on Feb 5, 2019 8:23:46 GMT -6
Congratulations and thanks for 25 years, Chris!
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Post by cardsnweather on Feb 5, 2019 8:24:33 GMT -6
GFS has lows just flying out of the SW day after day. Hopefully we can get one good one to really dig for us.
The pessimist in me is going to go the 99 route and say most, if not all, go NW of us and leave us with rain.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Feb 5, 2019 8:28:08 GMT -6
Werent you here in 93 when we had those big snows in feb chris? Negative. I went on the air February 5, 1994...after the Great Flood. So now this is going to drive me crazy. What year did we get 2 big snows in february....the first one 8 to 14 inches was forecasted by the nws..we ended up with abt 8 or 9...then several weeks later we got 11 more inches on or about feb 24 or 25. I thought i remember chris doing an evening forecast with the first one. Man how memory does tricks. I didnt think it was 94 because i remember the floods and there was a rumor where ppl were saying we were going to get 104 inches of snow that winter. Lol |
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Post by REB on Feb 5, 2019 8:29:36 GMT -6
25 years! Quite a milestone. Congratulations and thank you.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Feb 5, 2019 8:29:39 GMT -6
Mods i cant delete posts...if you can, pls delete one of my double posts.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Feb 5, 2019 8:31:01 GMT -6
I get an angry bear message abt server connectivity so i inadvertently posted same msg twice lol
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Post by mosue56 on Feb 5, 2019 8:33:02 GMT -6
You rock, Chris! From all of us in your corner!
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Feb 5, 2019 9:00:04 GMT -6
Congrats on 25 years Chris. And it sounds like you still enjoy the job...most of the time anyway.
Now if you can make it so we can order order our weather off a menu. "I'd like snow on Thursday with a side of strong winds and for dessert I'd like some subzero temperatures."
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Post by The Commish- Lake St. Louis on Feb 5, 2019 9:00:31 GMT -6
Congratulations on 25 great years Chris from all of us in the Corner!
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Post by jeepers on Feb 5, 2019 9:06:39 GMT -6
Congratulations, Chris! Thank you for everything that you do!
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Post by Tilawn on Feb 5, 2019 9:13:09 GMT -6
Congrats on 25 years Chris. And it sounds like you still enjoy the job...most of the time anyway. Now if you can make it so we can order order our weather off a menu. "I'd like snow on Thursday with a side of strong winds and for dessert I'd like some subzero temperatures." If you was to put an order in like that there will definitely be a horrible online review from you within 24 hours from then. 😂 |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Feb 5, 2019 9:21:41 GMT -6
Congrats on 25 years Chris. And it sounds like you still enjoy the job...most of the time anyway. Now if you can make it so we can order order our weather off a menu. "I'd like snow on Thursday with a side of strong winds and for dessert I'd like some subzero temperatures." Theres a joke in there somewhere about ordering a quantity of snow, but i will refrain. |
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Post by Labrat-O'Fallon IL on Feb 5, 2019 9:22:22 GMT -6
Congrats to the best meteorologist I know! And the only one I follow no matter where I live. If you ever do a TDY to the weather wing up here we will take you out for a beer.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 5, 2019 9:36:52 GMT -6
Congrats, Chris...here's to another 25 years!
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Post by maddogchief on Feb 5, 2019 9:52:49 GMT -6
To say that next week and beyond isn’t going to be wintry, or at least possibly wintry is only looking at one model. The GEFS, at 500mb.
EPS is completely different, the FV3 is a progressive version of the EPS.
Long and short. GEFS maintains the SE ridge, progresses it west, and puts us solidly in a SW flow at 500mb. Probably even torches us.
EPS sendS the SE ridge north and east and creates a -NAO. Returns winter to the mid latitudes for the entirety of its run.
FV3, just keeps sending troughs and ridges about every 3-4 days.
Icon is similar to the GFS in its output, but for different reason. It doesn’t maintain a SE ridge to force the cutters. It is basically sending everything down the west coast, forcing the ejection too far to the west.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Feb 5, 2019 10:09:12 GMT -6
Congrats on 25 years Chris. And it sounds like you still enjoy the job...most of the time anyway. Now if you can make it so we can order order our weather off a menu. "I'd like snow on Thursday with a side of strong winds and for dessert I'd like some subzero temperatures." If you was to put an order in like that there will definitely be a horrible online review from you within 24 hours from then. 😂 On Yelp - The snow was warm and wet...closer to rain than snow. And it didn't make everything white. Just muddy  |
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Post by bdgwx on Feb 5, 2019 10:37:05 GMT -6
February is not kind to St. Louis for snow lovers. I believe it's been something like 25 years since the airport has had a bona-fide winter storm in February. Needless to say big storms are rare for St. Louis in February...at least they have been since the early 90's anyway.
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Post by jmg378s on Feb 5, 2019 10:51:14 GMT -6
GOES-16 visible imagery is kinda interesting off the East Coast with those twin remnant surface lows spinning next to each other.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 5, 2019 11:10:53 GMT -6
To say that next week and beyond isn’t going to be wintry, or at least possibly wintry is only looking at one model. The GEFS, at 500mb. EPS is completely different, the FV3 is a progressive version of the EPS. Long and short. GEFS maintains the SE ridge, progresses it west, and puts us solidly in a SW flow at 500mb. Probably even torches us. EPS sendS the SE ridge north and east and creates a -NAO. Returns winter to the mid latitudes for the entirety of its run. FV3, just keeps sending troughs and ridges about every 3-4 days. Icon is similar to the GFS in its output, but for different reason. It doesn’t maintain a SE ridge to force the cutters. It is basically sending everything down the west coast, forcing the ejection too far to the west. It mostly comes down to the SE ridge. The GFS has it really ramped.  The new GFS doesn't  The euro is flatter and more realistic with the vorticity it's a lot drier.  Thanks to an Uber dry antedecent airmass. There is potential for wintry precious along and North of I70 with this system. Although I would say it's more likely not. However look in Eastern Canada. The FV3 is completely different and that elongated PV is helping squash heights over The Eastern USA. The FV3 has no support with that PV anomaly in Eastern Canada next week |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 5, 2019 11:11:06 GMT -6
Congrats to the best meteorologist I know! And the only one I follow no matter where I live. If you ever do a TDY to the weather wing up here we will take you out for a beer. As it turns out... it looks like the 15 OWS is moving up there...and it is unclear if we are following or not. So stay tuned! |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 5, 2019 11:12:24 GMT -6
Negative. I went on the air February 5, 1994...after the Great Flood. So now this is going to drive me crazy. What year did we get 2 big snows in february....the first one 8 to 14 inches was forecasted by the nws..we ended up with abt 8 or 9...then several weeks later we got 11 more inches on or about feb 24 or 25. I thought i remember chris doing an evening forecast with the first one. Man how memory does tricks. I didnt think it was 94 because i remember the floods and there was a rumor where ppl were saying we were going to get 104 inches of snow that winter. Lol Feb 1997 I believe. I was married...I forecast 10-15... we had 9" of snow and like 3" of sleet. |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Feb 5, 2019 11:16:02 GMT -6
I think overall, we will end up OK for February. It's not likely to be as spectacular as I previously thought back in mid January, and I certainly did not want to perpetuate my mid-January thinking; although it could be that we end up getting a lot more snow in March as well. The average temp will likely end up fairly unremarkable when compared to averages, all thanks to some really warm days, and the potential that we will see more warm days. But we will see cold days as well, to help average things out. Overall it's not a persistently cold pattern for us, where we get chances of snow on snow, and a prolonged snowcover. Also, around here, it takes one big snow to blow averages. Agree that February is not a snow friendly month, but our biggest snows that we've had often have come in February.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Feb 5, 2019 11:21:43 GMT -6
So now this is going to drive me crazy. What year did we get 2 big snows in february....the first one 8 to 14 inches was forecasted by the nws..we ended up with abt 8 or 9...then several weeks later we got 11 more inches on or about feb 24 or 25. I thought i remember chris doing an evening forecast with the first one. Man how memory does tricks. I didnt think it was 94 because i remember the floods and there was a rumor where ppl were saying we were going to get 104 inches of snow that winter. Lol Feb 1997 I believe. I was married...I forecast 10-15... we had 9" of snow and like 3" of sleet. interesting how memory deceives us....in the late 90s, I remember a New Years Eve storm where a lot of snow was predicted, and we took my son out for his birthday - we were about the only ones in the restaurant....sleet mixed in with snow. I do recall you had forecast 10 to 15 on one storm, but obviously have my wires crossed. hate it when that happens! |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 5, 2019 11:21:58 GMT -6
I think overall, we will end up OK for February. It's not likely to be as spectacular as I previously thought back in mid January, and I certainly did not want to perpetuate my mid-January thinking; although it could be that we end up getting a lot more snow in March as well. The average temp will likely end up fairly unremarkable when compared to averages, all thanks to some really warm days, and the potential that we will see more warm days. But we will see cold days as well, to help average things out. Overall it's not a persistently cold pattern for us, where we get chances of snow on snow, and a prolonged snowcover. Also, around here, it takes one big snow to blow averages. Agree that February is not a snow friendly month, but our biggest snows that we've had often have come in February. The Southern jet is so active. The the -epo we will almost certainly catch a break or two and get another accumulating snow. |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 5, 2019 11:24:29 GMT -6
Feb 1997 I believe. I was married...I forecast 10-15... we had 9" of snow and like 3" of sleet. interesting how memory deceives us....in the late 90s, I remember a New Years Eve storm where a lot of snow was predicted, and we took my son out for his birthday - we were about the only ones in the restaurant....sleet mixed in with snow. I do recall you had forecast 10 to 15 on one storm, but obviously have my wires crossed. hate it when that happens! That was Dec 31st 1998. And it was an unbelievable setup. A powerhouse EPIC PWAT LADEN AIRMASS BARRELLING INTO AN FRIGID EPIC AIRMASS. Pretty much everyone within a 1000 mile box North of STL relieved 12-24". |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Feb 5, 2019 11:35:58 GMT -6
interesting how memory deceives us....in the late 90s, I remember a New Years Eve storm where a lot of snow was predicted, and we took my son out for his birthday - we were about the only ones in the restaurant....sleet mixed in with snow. I do recall you had forecast 10 to 15 on one storm, but obviously have my wires crossed. hate it when that happens! That was Dec 31st 1998. And it was an unbelievable setup. A powerhouse EPIC PWAT LADEN AIRMASS BARRELLING INTO AN FRIGID EPIC AIRMASS. Pretty much everyone within a 1000 mile box North of STL relieved 12-24". That storm was well predicted. The euro and gfs had that storm a week in advance albeit gfs was further north but all the predictions were based off euro and its more southern placement. |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Feb 5, 2019 11:39:50 GMT -6
I think overall, we will end up OK for February. It's not likely to be as spectacular as I previously thought back in mid January, and I certainly did not want to perpetuate my mid-January thinking; although it could be that we end up getting a lot more snow in March as well. The average temp will likely end up fairly unremarkable when compared to averages, all thanks to some really warm days, and the potential that we will see more warm days. But we will see cold days as well, to help average things out. Overall it's not a persistently cold pattern for us, where we get chances of snow on snow, and a prolonged snowcover. Also, around here, it takes one big snow to blow averages. Agree that February is not a snow friendly month, but our biggest snows that we've had often have come in February. The Southern jet is so active. The the -epo we will almost certainly catch a break or two and get another accumulating snow. Thats basically why i think we will be ok...the southern jet being active and so active that a well timed northern piece of energy bringing cold air into the mix seems like a good bet. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 5, 2019 11:46:12 GMT -6
February is not kind to St. Louis for snow lovers. I believe it's been something like 25 years since the airport has had a bona-fide winter storm in February. Needless to say big storms are rare for St. Louis in February...at least they have been since the early 90's anyway. Well, we had the big snowstorm on Feb. 1st 2008. But yeah, since then it's been pretty quiet as far as snowstorms go. |
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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Feb 5, 2019 11:54:38 GMT -6
Congrats on 25 years on National Weatherman’s Day Chris! Your forecasts are by far the best in the biz!!!
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Feb 5, 2019 11:56:11 GMT -6
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