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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 6, 2019 7:30:50 GMT -6
Any of you northerners getting any ice/glazing? Nothing in brighton...temp right at freezing.
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Post by ajd446 on Feb 6, 2019 7:32:30 GMT -6
Hey little humor never hurt anyone. It's all good gang. People these days need to learn to joke. I'm 26 years old but was raised in the old school way by my parents. Mentality of if you cant joke lifes not very fun and you will just live a life with a stick up your arse.
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Post by lizard7151971 on Feb 6, 2019 7:33:50 GMT -6
Any of you northerners getting any ice/glazing? Just a cold rain here in Litchfield.
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 6, 2019 7:34:25 GMT -6
Yeah we're just having fun here. Someone has to get picked on besides me. Lol.
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Post by Tilawn on Feb 6, 2019 7:57:22 GMT -6
Coming down hard here. .15” in 5 minutes.
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Post by ajd446 on Feb 6, 2019 8:10:55 GMT -6
I am down to 32.5 with this rain. I dont know if that's right but bout as cold of a rain as it gets
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Post by unclesam6 on Feb 6, 2019 8:41:20 GMT -6
On my way to Columbia for my Post-op... The ice rearing it's ugly head, once again...
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Post by jeffcobeeman on Feb 6, 2019 8:51:49 GMT -6
How come the snows miss us, but the rain chances are always 100%? Of all the weather phenomena, I like rain the least, and yet we always get more of that then we need. The ground is a swamp. You need hip boots to keep from getting wet. May as well warm up and get sunny, because this is really getting old.
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Post by rb1108 on Feb 6, 2019 9:41:36 GMT -6
Could be a bit of fz rain here....pouring, temp 32*
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Post by unclesam6 on Feb 6, 2019 9:41:52 GMT -6
Wow. The big hill on 70 passing Montgomery city is the cut off for ice. It went from wet trees to everything being covered in a sheet of ice... interstate just wet.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Feb 6, 2019 9:56:40 GMT -6
Wow. The big hill on 70 passing Montgomery city is the cut off for ice. It went from wet trees to everything being covered in a sheet of ice... interstate just wet. Today is pretty close to how i envisioned last week only i didnt use that new word...exurbs? A couple chances of winter precip coming up over next 7 days. No major snow in sight for us but you dont have to go too far into northern mo to see several chances of accumulating snow. Looks like we dodge some bullets as that sw flow seems to be stuck for now for the most part.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 6, 2019 10:02:45 GMT -6
12z gfs looks decent for a small event Sunday.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Feb 6, 2019 10:04:30 GMT -6
We also seem to be losing some gfs ensemble support for a neg nao. Some still insist on a neg nao by mid feb but it looks like for the most part, a large number says what what we see is what we get with little change. This trend is noteworthy and given that we havent seen the nao respond to ao this winter, the general idea of a neutral to weakly positive nao for the foreseeable future is a safe bet. My guess is that this shld help maintain the se ridge for the time being in this early february.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Feb 6, 2019 10:07:52 GMT -6
12z gfs looks decent for a small event Sunday. Sunday is indeed a formidable shot of wet snow that cld stick briefly. Attm looks like a no to minor impact system though.
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Post by Tilawn on Feb 6, 2019 10:15:47 GMT -6
12z gfs looks decent for a small event Sunday. I could see an inch or two falling in the early morning hours. Probably not a plowable event for me but a partial chemical application possibly. Partial because half of my accounts are in the industrial park and they would be off work Sunday and it should all melt by midday on Sunday as temps warm above freezing
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 6, 2019 10:25:31 GMT -6
Wow. The big hill on 70 passing Montgomery city is the cut off for ice. It went from wet trees to everything being covered in a sheet of ice... interstate just wet. High Hill
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Feb 6, 2019 10:33:17 GMT -6
We also seem to be losing some gfs ensemble support for a neg nao. Some still insist on a neg nao by mid feb but it looks like for the most part, a large number says what what we see is what we get with little change. This trend is noteworthy and given that we havent seen the nao respond to ao this winter, the general idea of a neutral to weakly positive nao for the foreseeable future is a safe bet. My guess is that this shld help maintain the se ridge for the time being in this early february. NAO isn't as important for us as the EPO, PNA, and AO. If those are negative or at least neutral we're generally fine for an active storm track with cold air not too far away 'usually' and is more ideal for bigger winter storms than with a Negative NAO which tends to be suppression city for us and generally wasted cold. Now for the regions along and east of the Appalachians the NAO is far more important. For the lolz the monthly outlooks do show a strong sign of a negative NAO during the late Spring and Summer as well as a Negative AO and even a neutral to negative EPO. Be interesting to see how that plays out in regards to future heatwaves and storm/severe chances.
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Feb 6, 2019 10:41:27 GMT -6
This is what i have been looking forward to ALL Winter! A nice cold rain! Ahhhhhhhhh!
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Feb 6, 2019 10:46:51 GMT -6
We also seem to be losing some gfs ensemble support for a neg nao. Some still insist on a neg nao by mid feb but it looks like for the most part, a large number says what what we see is what we get with little change. This trend is noteworthy and given that we havent seen the nao respond to ao this winter, the general idea of a neutral to weakly positive nao for the foreseeable future is a safe bet. My guess is that this shld help maintain the se ridge for the time being in this early february. NAO isn't as important for us as the EPO, PNA, and AO. If those are negative or at least neutral we're generally fine for an active storm track with cold air not too far away 'usually' and is more ideal for bigger winter storms than with a Negative NAO which tends to be suppression city for us and generally wasted cold. Now for the regions along and east of the Appalachians the NAO is far more important. For the lolz the monthly outlooks do show a strong sign of a negative NAO during the late Spring and Summer as well as a Negative AO and even a neutral to negative EPO. Be interesting to see how that plays out in regards to future heatwaves and storm/severe chances. The thinking behind a neg nao is that it would result in a flattened se ridge. We already have a neg epo...and i have a huge blizzard going on outside complete with thunder and lightning....only its rain and not snow. *note sarcasm. The epo has set up further west than we expected and cold air entering the northern plains is not moving south...its moving east. As long as the se ridge is there, epo will do us no good and places like des moines and minneapolis get the storm track. In fact des moines is already having the kind of february that looked like st louis would have 2 weeks ago.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Feb 6, 2019 11:03:09 GMT -6
NAO isn't as important for us as the EPO, PNA, and AO. If those are negative or at least neutral we're generally fine for an active storm track with cold air not too far away 'usually' and is more ideal for bigger winter storms than with a Negative NAO which tends to be suppression city for us and generally wasted cold. Now for the regions along and east of the Appalachians the NAO is far more important. For the lolz the monthly outlooks do show a strong sign of a negative NAO during the late Spring and Summer as well as a Negative AO and even a neutral to negative EPO. Be interesting to see how that plays out in regards to future heatwaves and storm/severe chances. The thinking behind a neg nao is that it would result in a flattened se ridge. We already have a neg epo...and i have a huge blizzard going on outside complete with thunder and lightning....only its rain and not snow. *note sarcasm. The epo has set up further west than we expected and cold air entering the northern plains is not moving south...its moving east. As long as the se ridge is there, epo will do us no good and places like des moines and minneapolis get the storm track. In fact des moines is already having the kind of february that looked like st louis would have 2 weeks ago. My observation of neg nao in summer has little affect on our sensible wx. The above normal precip we are getting now might help temper the actual temp but not the humidity. We really need to ensure the southern plains are getting alot of rain this spring so the heat buildup is not as robust. Btw those monthlys you look at...if youre just reporting what they say thats one thing. But i dont see how a forecast can be made off those. I wld almost say those are satirical. Getting back to the winter time influence of nao...from a textbook perspective i wld agree that nao is not as important conceptually but yes it is important in situations. If there is a set of teleconnection indexes and their values that wld give us a solid idea of what winter is like, seasonal forecasts would be 100% correct for the past several years.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Feb 6, 2019 11:07:47 GMT -6
What im trying to say....we got to jiggle the handle to get this pattern to adjust. A falling nao cld be that jiggle, if it happens.
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Post by landscaper on Feb 6, 2019 11:10:55 GMT -6
He’s probably referring to mineola hill, it’s the giant hill that usually causes major problems for semis whenever there snow and ice .
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Feb 6, 2019 11:33:23 GMT -6
Super GFS/FV3-GFS definitely has some eye candy with our system on Sunday and a Memphis low with decent cold air and moisture for a big event towards the middle of next week. Potentials are there, just a matter of lining things up at the right time.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 6, 2019 11:35:11 GMT -6
We can dream on the 12z Fv3 for early next week.
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Post by mosue56 on Feb 6, 2019 11:36:35 GMT -6
I hope for one more storm but with thunderstorms, rain, fog, mod temps and birds chirping and for the Cards getting ready for spring training, all that points to spring! Days getting longer! Sorry! I know it’s Feb but we aren’t Minnesota! We have a brief cold day Friday but it’s just one day!
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Feb 6, 2019 11:36:36 GMT -6
Looks like tomorrow maybe a bigger severe weather day for us, especially along and east of I-55/I-44 with an attendant damaging wind and isolated tornado threat. Per the latest Day 2 SPC outlook just released.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Feb 6, 2019 11:43:14 GMT -6
This definitely qualifies as a yucky day.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Feb 6, 2019 11:50:38 GMT -6
Just learned that the MJO is looking to enter it's colder phases 8,1, and 2 after about a week or so with a pretty strong signal for doing so. This should also help tilt the balance back to a colder snowier pattern around mid to late month and into the 1st week or 2 of March. No time to panic just yet.
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Post by amstilost on Feb 6, 2019 11:56:50 GMT -6
Just learned that the MJO is looking to enter it's colder phases 8,1, and 2 after about a week or so with a pretty strong signal for doing so. This should also help tilt the balance back to a colder snowier pattern around mid to late month and into the 1st week or 2 of March. No time to panic just yet. And that could be the 'jiggle' that Beaker is referring to.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Feb 6, 2019 12:47:16 GMT -6
Just learned that the MJO is looking to enter it's colder phases 8,1, and 2 after about a week or so with a pretty strong signal for doing so. This should also help tilt the balance back to a colder snowier pattern around mid to late month and into the 1st week or 2 of March. No time to panic just yet. And that could be the 'jiggle' that Beaker is referring to. Yep. That wld work. Cld salvage feb and keep some concrete snows around in march.
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